BabyBoomer50s
Capitalist
- Joined
- Nov 27, 2018
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Excellent piece in today’s Wall Street Journal comparing Florida’s handling of Covid-19 to failed states such as New York, New Jersey, and California. Some highlights:
- A year after the virus hit the U.S., Mr. Cuomo’s luster has faded, and Mr. DeSantis can claim vindication. The Sunshine State appears to have weathered the pandemic better than others like New York and California, which stayed locked down harder and longer.
- More than 80% of Covid deaths in the U.S. have occurred among seniors over 65. Based on demographics, Florida’s per-capita Covid death rate would be expected to be one of the highest in the country.
- Nope. Florida’s death rate is in the middle of the pack and only slightly higher than in California, which has a much younger population. Florida’s death rate among seniors is about 20% lower than California’s and 50% lower than New York’s, based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.
- Mr. DeSantis took a smarter approach. His administration halted outside visitations to nursing homes and bolstered their stockpile of personal protective equipment. Florida’s government also set up 23 Covid-dedicated nursing centers for elderly patients discharged from hospitals. Nursing-home residents who tested positive and couldn’t be isolated in their facilities were sent to these Covid-only wards. Florida set up field hospitals to handle a surge in cases that models predicted in the spring, although it never materialized.
- Like most governors, Mr. DeSantis shut down most businesses when President Trump issued guidelines for a national lockdown on March 16. “We did the 15 days to slow the spread,” Mr. DeSantis says. The governor kept restrictions on “nonessential” businesses for several more weeks, but he let more places stay open than other states, including child-care facilities, construction sites, hotels and beaches. National media published photos of crowded Florida beaches. “DeSantis in Florida let everybody go crazy over spring break,” CNN’s Chris Cuomo, the New York governor’s brother, said in June. “He then exported all that virus back to wherever—wherever they wanted to go, OK?”
- But Florida’s infection rate during April stayed on par with California, where most beaches and residential construction were restricted.
- Florida began a phased reopening in early May, allowing restaurants, barbershops, nail salons, gyms and other retailers to operate initially at 50% capacity provided they follow social-distancing and sanitary protocols. Bars and pubs were later allowed to open at 50% capacity, and limits for other businesses were increased.
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- Mr. DeSantis also let theme parks—important Florida employers and tourist attractions—reopen at reduced capacity. SeaWorld Orlando and Universal Studios reopened in June. Disney World’s reopening soon followed. California’s government still hasn’t allowed the Disneyland or Universal Studios theme parks to reopen.
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- Florida’s cases started climbing in June as people socialized more, including at graduation parties, summer cookouts and on Father’s Day. Experts and the media castigated the governor for reopening too fast and too soon. “Despite the guidelines and the recommendations to open up carefully and prudently, some states skipped over those and just opened up too quickly,” the National Institutes of Health’s Anthony Fauci said in July. “Certainly Florida I know, you know, I think jumped over a couple of checkpoints.”
- But cases spiked across the Sun Belt, including in California, which maintained much stricter business restrictions. Still, political pressure intensified on Mr. DeSantis to shut down his state again. He refused. “I’m like, ‘No, we’re not going to lock down. It doesn’t work. It compounds problems,’*” he says. The virus is not “going to be governed by simply closing someone’s business, or not letting people go to work.
- In late July, cases in Florida and across the Sun Belt began to fall.
- In September Mr. DeSantis lifted capacity restrictions on restaurants and bars. He also overrode local jurisdictions that tried to keep them closed. “We said every business has the right to operate; you cannot close anything. Everyone has the right to work. You have to let people earn a living,” he says. Mr. DeSantis also required local school districts to offer in-person instruction five days a week in the fall, though parents could choose remote learning instead. “The union sued us, but we beat them in court.”
- Teachers unions in large school districts in California, meanwhile, have refused to return to classrooms. They claim schools are unsafe. But per capita Covid cases among children are about the same in Florida and California.
- When cases began to rise again in the fall, Democratic governors like Mr. Cuomo and California’s Gavin Newsom tightened business shutdowns and even sought to limit Thanksgiving gatherings to 10 people. Mr. Cuomo griped that police weren’t strictly enforcing his household limits.
- The fall and winter lockdowns don’t appear to have made any difference in the virus spread. Between Nov. 1 and Feb. 28, there were 5.8 new cases per 100 people in New York, 6.4 in California, and only 5 in Florida, where businesses could stay open at full capacity. But the economic impact of the lockdowns has been enormous.
- Employment declined by 4.6% in Florida in 2020, compared with 8% in California and 10.4% in New York. Leisure and hospitality jobs fell 15% in Florida, vs. 30% in California and 39% in New York.
- Florida’s freedom has drawn people and economic activity to the state. It ranked third among “U-Haul Migration Growth States” for one-way rentals. While travel is still lower than it was last year, several airlines including Southwest, Spirit and United have added direct flights to Florida this winter.
- According to Census Bureau data, Florida’s per capita business formation between April 2020 and January 2021 was twice as high as California’s and 75% higher than New York’s.
- Florida’s economy shrank only 3.7% in the third quarter of 2020 from the fourth quarter in 2019, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, compared with 4.9% for California and 8% for New York. The latter states probably took even bigger economic hits in the fourth quarter when they shut down.
- Real estate across the state is booming. Home sales increased 20% in the last six months of 2020 year over year, while the median sales price rose 14.4%. Construction wages and salaries during the third quarter were 3.2% higher in Florida year over year but 4.8% lower in California and 9.3% lower in New York.
- The lesson of Florida’s Covid success story, according to the governor: “We’ve shown people that you can have a good time, you can be safe, and you can make the decision that’s best for you.” What has Andrew Cuomo learned?
- A year after the virus hit the U.S., Mr. Cuomo’s luster has faded, and Mr. DeSantis can claim vindication. The Sunshine State appears to have weathered the pandemic better than others like New York and California, which stayed locked down harder and longer.
- More than 80% of Covid deaths in the U.S. have occurred among seniors over 65. Based on demographics, Florida’s per-capita Covid death rate would be expected to be one of the highest in the country.
- Nope. Florida’s death rate is in the middle of the pack and only slightly higher than in California, which has a much younger population. Florida’s death rate among seniors is about 20% lower than California’s and 50% lower than New York’s, based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.
- Mr. DeSantis took a smarter approach. His administration halted outside visitations to nursing homes and bolstered their stockpile of personal protective equipment. Florida’s government also set up 23 Covid-dedicated nursing centers for elderly patients discharged from hospitals. Nursing-home residents who tested positive and couldn’t be isolated in their facilities were sent to these Covid-only wards. Florida set up field hospitals to handle a surge in cases that models predicted in the spring, although it never materialized.
- Like most governors, Mr. DeSantis shut down most businesses when President Trump issued guidelines for a national lockdown on March 16. “We did the 15 days to slow the spread,” Mr. DeSantis says. The governor kept restrictions on “nonessential” businesses for several more weeks, but he let more places stay open than other states, including child-care facilities, construction sites, hotels and beaches. National media published photos of crowded Florida beaches. “DeSantis in Florida let everybody go crazy over spring break,” CNN’s Chris Cuomo, the New York governor’s brother, said in June. “He then exported all that virus back to wherever—wherever they wanted to go, OK?”
- But Florida’s infection rate during April stayed on par with California, where most beaches and residential construction were restricted.
- Florida began a phased reopening in early May, allowing restaurants, barbershops, nail salons, gyms and other retailers to operate initially at 50% capacity provided they follow social-distancing and sanitary protocols. Bars and pubs were later allowed to open at 50% capacity, and limits for other businesses were increased.
-
- Mr. DeSantis also let theme parks—important Florida employers and tourist attractions—reopen at reduced capacity. SeaWorld Orlando and Universal Studios reopened in June. Disney World’s reopening soon followed. California’s government still hasn’t allowed the Disneyland or Universal Studios theme parks to reopen.
-
- Florida’s cases started climbing in June as people socialized more, including at graduation parties, summer cookouts and on Father’s Day. Experts and the media castigated the governor for reopening too fast and too soon. “Despite the guidelines and the recommendations to open up carefully and prudently, some states skipped over those and just opened up too quickly,” the National Institutes of Health’s Anthony Fauci said in July. “Certainly Florida I know, you know, I think jumped over a couple of checkpoints.”
- But cases spiked across the Sun Belt, including in California, which maintained much stricter business restrictions. Still, political pressure intensified on Mr. DeSantis to shut down his state again. He refused. “I’m like, ‘No, we’re not going to lock down. It doesn’t work. It compounds problems,’*” he says. The virus is not “going to be governed by simply closing someone’s business, or not letting people go to work.
- In late July, cases in Florida and across the Sun Belt began to fall.
- In September Mr. DeSantis lifted capacity restrictions on restaurants and bars. He also overrode local jurisdictions that tried to keep them closed. “We said every business has the right to operate; you cannot close anything. Everyone has the right to work. You have to let people earn a living,” he says. Mr. DeSantis also required local school districts to offer in-person instruction five days a week in the fall, though parents could choose remote learning instead. “The union sued us, but we beat them in court.”
- Teachers unions in large school districts in California, meanwhile, have refused to return to classrooms. They claim schools are unsafe. But per capita Covid cases among children are about the same in Florida and California.
- When cases began to rise again in the fall, Democratic governors like Mr. Cuomo and California’s Gavin Newsom tightened business shutdowns and even sought to limit Thanksgiving gatherings to 10 people. Mr. Cuomo griped that police weren’t strictly enforcing his household limits.
- The fall and winter lockdowns don’t appear to have made any difference in the virus spread. Between Nov. 1 and Feb. 28, there were 5.8 new cases per 100 people in New York, 6.4 in California, and only 5 in Florida, where businesses could stay open at full capacity. But the economic impact of the lockdowns has been enormous.
- Employment declined by 4.6% in Florida in 2020, compared with 8% in California and 10.4% in New York. Leisure and hospitality jobs fell 15% in Florida, vs. 30% in California and 39% in New York.
- Florida’s freedom has drawn people and economic activity to the state. It ranked third among “U-Haul Migration Growth States” for one-way rentals. While travel is still lower than it was last year, several airlines including Southwest, Spirit and United have added direct flights to Florida this winter.
- According to Census Bureau data, Florida’s per capita business formation between April 2020 and January 2021 was twice as high as California’s and 75% higher than New York’s.
- Florida’s economy shrank only 3.7% in the third quarter of 2020 from the fourth quarter in 2019, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, compared with 4.9% for California and 8% for New York. The latter states probably took even bigger economic hits in the fourth quarter when they shut down.
- Real estate across the state is booming. Home sales increased 20% in the last six months of 2020 year over year, while the median sales price rose 14.4%. Construction wages and salaries during the third quarter were 3.2% higher in Florida year over year but 4.8% lower in California and 9.3% lower in New York.
- The lesson of Florida’s Covid success story, according to the governor: “We’ve shown people that you can have a good time, you can be safe, and you can make the decision that’s best for you.” What has Andrew Cuomo learned?
