Crime in Texas Border Counties

[MajorRewrite]

Right wing editorial sources often write about an “immigrant crime wave” as if it is a given. Is it? Is there evidence of a crime wave driven by immigrants?

Jeff Asher looked for evidence in the Texas counties along the Mexico border. What he found is that the violent crime rate in the border counties is lower than in Texas overall or in the USA as a whole.

That said, the overall trend of declining violent crime nationally, and seeing no localized crime surges in the places I’d expect to see one if there was such a “wave” strongly suggests that no such thing exists.

 

[JoePepsiCo]

Recent and archived work by Jeff Asher for The New York Times New data reveals that crime-solving rates are at record lows. By Jeff Asher The increase in U.S. murders this summer does not appear ...

ASHER: If you're talking about crime with sort of a capital C, as what the FBI measures as the national crime rate, you're talking about seven major types of crime, and the vast majority of them are property crimes. And property crime has been falling regularly for 20 years. This is theft, auto theft and burglary...

MARTIN: Got it.

ASHER: ...Is what makes up property crime?

MARTIN: OK.

ASHER: When you talk about violent crime, you're talking about aggravated assault, murder, rape and robbery. That has gone down since the '90s. It increased a little bit in 2020. It probably increased a little bit or was even in 2021. But even that, when we talk about crime, is not what people think of. What they're really thinking of is murder and gun violence. And murder makes up 0.2%, about, of all big-picture crimes every year. But it's really the thing - it's the crime with the most societal harm. It's the thing that people tend to care about the most.

And so when we talk about murder, yes, we've seen a pretty dramatic uptick over the last two-plus years. It went up almost 30% in 2020. It probably was up about 4 or 5% nationally in 2021. And this year, we're probably seeing a 4 to 5% decline relative to 2021. So we're still at this really highly elevated level now compared to where we were in 2019. Now, if we go back to the '90s, we're still down significantly 30 or 40%, but we're much higher than we were three or four years ago.


Source: NPR - National People's Reporting

https://wskg.org/npr-news/2022-10-2...es-isnt-as-straightforward-as-you-might-think

 

[JoePepsiCo]

Do some research and stop cherry-picking quotes.

People, VOTERS, do not feels safe and what they feel is more important than what AN expert tells them.

The current administration has done not one thing to make them feel safer other than undo the measure, efficacious or not, that Trump put in place to make them feel safer. So, they feel less safe, and unfortunately for you, may vote on that feeling over your triumphant "fact."

Next time, just try an original thought or opinion.

 

[Chobham]

*chuckle* It seems that the OP along with the 'reporter' he quoted believe that the illegals stay in the areas where they cross the border..............they don't. They're being bussed off to other locations, like Chicago, New York City, etc.

 

[JoePepsiCo]

By Catholic charities, in large part. I thought that the OP continent hated religion too...

 

[JoePepsiCo]

... at least they're being sent to Blue enclaves like Martha's Vineyard where they are being welcomed with open arms, fruit baskets and food and housing vouchers. (Hopefully when they arrive at their next destination out because these people really are pro-bussing for minorities.)

 

[Chobham]

Oh, the trick with them is finding something they like.

 

[MajorRewrite]

Do some research and stop cherry-picking quotes.

People, VOTERS, do not feels safe and what they feel is more important than what AN expert tells them.

The current administration has done not one thing to make them feel safer other than undo the measure, efficacious or not, that Trump put in place to make them feel safer. So, they feel less safe, and unfortunately for you, may vote on that feeling over your triumphant "fact."

Next time, just try an original thought or opinion.

You linked to an old article. The last 2 years are when there has been a dramatic drop in crime nationwide. Stop cherry-picking sources!

“Feelings” aren’t facts. If wimpy Republicans don’t “feel” safe, maybe they need to grow a pair.

 

[ll74]

The OP: crime is down along Texas borders
AJ: crime overall is underreported so people are more aware of crime than is being reported
Chobs: immigrants are bussed out of border counties

So no one has refuted the OP, you just insinuate that they are wrong because of other things.

 

[MajorRewrite]

*chuckle* It seems that the OP along with the 'reporter' he quoted believe that the illegals stay in the areas where they cross the border..............they don't. They're being bussed off to other locations, like Chicago, New York City, etc.

And that explains why crime is falling nationwide?

As always, your contribution to the discussion is less than intelligent.

 

[JoePepsiCo]

Those stats, nationwide stats, are never current. Even Jeff is working off of incomplete and uncorrected raw data.

October '22 is not out of date for these types of comprehensive statistics.

 

[MajorRewrite]

Those stats, nationwide stats, are never current. Even Jeff is working off of incomplete and uncorrected raw data.

October '22 is not out of date for these types of comprehensive statistics.

There is no evidence of an immigrant crime wave in any statistics anywhere.

 

[JoePepsiCo]

Disreputable source, but here's another attempt to add some logic and reason to the thought processes here:

Pierre Augustine, a Brooklyn, New York, resident, told ABC News that his perception of crime is not based on the statistics showing crime in the New York City transit system fell 2.6% in 2023 compared to 2022. In February 2023, the 66-year-old Augustine was waiting for a subway train in Brooklyn's Crown Heights neighborhood when he was randomly pushed onto the tracks allegedly by a homeless stranger police described as a 44-year-old recidivist criminal. Augustine said this week that he still suffers from injuries he sustained in the attack and hasn't taken a subway since.

"I can tell you, crime is going up and up," Augustine said. "Every day you listen to the news, there is a crime in the subway stations."

And while subway crime was down from 2024 to 2023, it actually rose by 46% in January 2024 compared to January 2023, illustrating that overall crime statistics don’t always tell the whole story.

The most recent crime numbers lend merit to Augustine's statement. According to the NYPD, crime in the transit system is up roughly 7% in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 and includes a series of recent violent attacks and shootings that prompted New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to deploy the National Guard to the subway system this month.
For Black Americans nationwide, particularly young men, becoming the victim of violent crime remains disproportionately high.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/us-stats-show-violent-crime-dramatically-falling-rising/story?id=108042096




Things not held constant are subjective, like reporting. When people know that nothing is going to be done, reporting goes down. When PC policies dominate, minorities are given a pass by Liberal DAs. There are so many variables in this Chaotic System that you cannot simply hold the ones that are inopportune to your argument zero and focus in on that subset that you like and them blame others for saying..., "Wait a minute, I'm not sure that's altogether completely factual (because you've left some out)."

 

[JoePepsiCo]

Remember, for example, in NYC they removed cops as part of the defund the police movement because that's how you make people fell "safe."

Police make Liberals and minorities "nervous."

 

[MajorRewrite]

Disreputable source, but here's another attempt to add some logic and reason to the thought processes here:

Pierre Augustine, a Brooklyn, New York, resident, told ABC News that his perception of crime is not based on the statistics showing crime in the New York City transit system fell 2.6% in 2023 compared to 2022. In February 2023, the 66-year-old Augustine was waiting for a subway train in Brooklyn's Crown Heights neighborhood when he was randomly pushed onto the tracks allegedly by a homeless stranger police described as a 44-year-old recidivist criminal. Augustine said this week that he still suffers from injuries he sustained in the attack and hasn't taken a subway since.

"I can tell you, crime is going up and up," Augustine said. "Every day you listen to the news, there is a crime in the subway stations."

And while subway crime was down from 2024 to 2023, it actually rose by 46% in January 2024 compared to January 2023, illustrating that overall crime statistics don’t always tell the whole story.

The most recent crime numbers lend merit to Augustine's statement. According to the NYPD, crime in the transit system is up roughly 7% in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 and includes a series of recent violent attacks and shootings that prompted New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to deploy the National Guard to the subway system this month.
For Black Americans nationwide, particularly young men, becoming the victim of violent crime remains disproportionately high.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/us-stats-show-violent-crime-dramatically-falling-rising/story?id=108042096




Things not held constant are subjective, like reporting. When people know that nothing is going to be done, reporting goes down. When PC policies dominate, minorities are given a pass by Liberal DAs. There are so many variables in this Chaotic System that you cannot simply hold the ones that are inopportune to your argument zero and focus in on that subset that you like and them blame others for saying..., "Wait a minute, I'm not sure that's altogether completely factual (because you've left some out)."

It’s interesting that in every discussion about every topic, the right wing insists that data is false and only anecdotal evidence and “feelings” should be believed.

 

[JoePepsiCo]

Interesting that you are beset by this mysterious right-wing at every turn and post.

What I have discovered is that to the indoctrinated, everything that is not in lock-step is "right-wing."

Hell, I'm a minority, a Libertarian and an armchair Austrian economist buff.
The right-wing would never give me membership in their club...

 

[MajorRewrite]

I wonder why some people are so devoted to the idea of an “immigrant crime wave” that they leap to attack any evidence that suggests there is no such thing?

Real Americans should be happy there is no immigrant crime wave.

 

[JoePepsiCo]

You accusing me of some sort of devotion for pointing out what may be a few flaws in the reasoning behind the OP?

If you don't want any pushback, rebuttal or discussion, maybe should just just leave the thread-starting to Rory.

 

[JoePepsiCo]

I will interrupt your learned rant no more.

You may continue your valiant fight against "the right-wing" unimpeded.

 

[MajorRewrite]

You accusing me of some sort of devotion for pointing out what may be a few flaws in the reasoning behind the OP?

But you didn’t point out any flaws.

 

[Nicefella]

The OP: crime is down along Texas borders
AJ: crime overall is underreported so people are more aware of crime than is being reported
Chobs: immigrants are bussed out of border counties

So no one has refuted the OP, you just insinuate that they are wrong because of other things.

I again do not give a rats ass about either of the two feeble minded idiots we will be choosing from - BUT - do yiu disagree that there is a correlation between violent crime and illegal immigration? Thats the question that really needs to be answered and you know what, voter sentiment is important in that respect. I think most voters (and not the donation paying assholes at the insider parties) do not think illegal immigration is under control and they believe that there is a positive correlation between violent crime and illegal immigration.

Instead of trying to polish a turd, maybe the Biden Dems ought to consider scooping it up and throwing it in the bin and focus instead on how they intend to resolve this.

 

[ll74]

I again do not give a rats ass about either of the two feeble minded idiots we will be choosing from - BUT - do yiu disagree that there is a correlation between violent crime and illegal immigration? Thats the question that really needs to be answered and you know what, voter sentiment is important in that respect. I think most voters (and not the donation paying assholes at the insider parties) do not think illegal immigration is under control and they believe that there is a positive correlation between violent crime and illegal immigration.

Instead of trying to polish a turd, maybe the Biden Dems ought to consider scooping it up and throwing it in the bin and focus instead on how they intend to resolve this.

There is absolutely a correlation between poverty and homelessness and crime. Whether asylum seekers and illegal immigrants contribute to that is not clear by any evidence I've seen.

People tend to react to "undesirables" by believing the worst about those people that fit that category, regardless of whether it's factually correct. It's a matter of dehumanization to allow themselves to ignore bigotry and hatred that they are deploying. It's easier to hate people when you can rationalize those people as being less deserving.

As for your other question - immigration levels are at the highest levels in history, mostly due to the nature of legal asylum claims . The Senate bill would've solved many issues in the law and definitely would've allowed the federal government more direct ways to handle it. Parts of it would be challenged in court, though I think the majority would remain intact.

 

[Nicefella]

I wonder why some people are so devoted to the idea of an “immigrant crime wave” that they leap to attack any evidence that suggests there is no such thing?

Real Americans should be happy there is no immigrant crime wave.

Do you believe that there is no spike in crime and/Or are you so devoted to the idea that the wave of illegal immigrants is actually helping diversify our population? Do you now believe that the definition of crime is being bastardized to fit the narrative? Have seen the homelessness and rampant property crime in the areas illegal immigrabts are being bussed into?

A real American should always feel free to debate their viewpoints without retaliation.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Remember, for example, in NYC they removed cops as part of the defund the police movement because that's how you make people fell "safe."

Police make Liberals and minorities "nervous."

LOL, I went looking specifically for articles from Rightwing sources on the NYPD. Guess what I found?

As moderate Democratic politicians try to unshackle themselves from their party’s “defund the police” wing, police officers around the country—and especially in New York City—are retiring and resigning in record numbers. If the trend continues, the defund movement will achieve its aims by default.
https://www.city-journal.org/article/bleeding-blue

Now if you want I can also get a few New York Post articles too, in which the Op-Ed also states basically the same thing. The numbers are down due to retirement/exiting. Not that any policy was put in place to reduce manpower....

Policing, like any other employment is now struggling to find the bodies to fill the positions due to the Baby-boomer's retirements. In fact 2025 is expected to be the worst year ever...

 

[MajorRewrite]

Do you believe that there is no spike in crime and/Or are you so devoted to the idea that the wave of illegal immigrants is actually helping diversify our population? Do you now believe that the definition of crime is being bastardized to fit the narrative? Have seen the homelessness and rampant property crime in the areas illegal immigrabts are being bussed into?

A real American should always feel free to debate their viewpoints without retaliation.

There is no spike in crime according to statistics. In fact crime is decreasing nationwide.