Another hurricane topic ...

[Typo Fu Master]

My apologies. I started this on the GB, and, not surprisingly, titty fucking, neck hair, and run-on threads were more interesting to discuss. I know, I know, you guys say to avoid the place like the plague, but I'm attracted to it because there are many, many people that post there and the board moves a lot faster.

Anyway ...

WASHINGTON - Expect more hurricanes large and small in the next 10 to 20 years, the director of the federal National Hurricane Center said Tuesday.

Max Mayfield told a congressional panel that he believes the Atlantic Ocean is in a cycle of increased hurricane activity that parallels an increase that started in the 1940s and ended in the 1960s.

The ensuing lull lasted until 1995, then “it’s like somebody threw a switch,” Mayfield said. The number and power of hurricanes increased dramatically.

Under questioning by members of the Senate Commerce subcommittee on disaster prevention and prediction, he shrugged off the notion that global warming played a role, saying instead it was a natural cycle in the Atlantic Ocean that fluctuates every 25 to 40 years.

Link to the story here.

We have had an unprecedented 2 category 5 hurricanes this year, both within a month of each other. Could be an amazing coincidence. Despite what Mayfield believes, I think Humanity is at least partly responsible for this upward trend of bad weather. And it looks like it's only going to get worse. Katrina and Rita are bad enough, but who wants to speculate on the odds of the US getting bitch slapped by another category 3 or 4 hurricane before the end of the season?

 

[Alex756]

My apologies. I started this on the GB, and, not surprisingly, titty fucking, neck hair, and run-on threads were more interesting to discuss. I know, I know, you guys say to avoid the place like the plague, but I'm attracted to it because there are many, many people that post there and the board moves a lot faster.

Anyway ...



Link to the story here.

We have had an unprecedented 2 category 5 hurricanes this year, both within a month of each other. Could be an amazing coincidence. Despite what Mayfield believes, I think Humanity is at least partly responsible for this upward trend of bad weather. And it looks like it's only going to get worse. Katrina and Rita are bad enough, but who wants to speculate on the odds of the US getting bitch slapped by another category 3 or 4 hurricane before the end of the season?

For the record books we haven't actually had 2 cat 5's

unless I am totally mistaked, Katrina was downgradded to a 4 just prior to landfall. Also there is a good chance Rita will be a 4 come landfall, dependin gon time.

Huricanes are cyclical. Neither of these storms is the strongest on record. I believe most people will attribute that to the Labor day storm that devestated the keys and is the record for lowest preasure ever measures in the US.

-Alex

 

[Typo Fu Master]

For the record books we haven't actually had 2 cat 5's

unless I am totally mistaked, Katrina was downgradded to a 4 just prior to landfall. Also there is a good chance Rita will be a 4 come landfall, dependin gon time.

Huricanes are cyclical. Neither of these storms is the strongest on record. I believe most people will attribute that to the Labor day storm that devestated the keys and is the record for lowest preasure ever measures in the US.

-Alex

I didn't mean to imply that Katrina was a 5 at landfall, or that Rita will be. Just the fact that both have been classified as Cat 5's, and so close to each other. I fully expect Rita to go down to a 4, or even a 3 before it hits.

It just seems like there is a trend toward larger, more frequent storms, and it looks like we can expect more. We may even end up using Greek names before the end of hurricane season, which, from what I've heard, was only supposed to be a hypothetical situation. I blame a lot of it on global warming.

 

[dr_mabeuse]

From what I understand there is no doubt that the surface of the tropical ocean has been getting warmer since we started keeping records in the '60's

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

The birth of a hurricane is caused by atmoshperic disturbances, but once it forms, the hurricane's energy is largely determined by the temperature of the surface sea water. The higher the temperature, the stronger the hurricane.

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/stories/hurricanes/

Global warming therefore predicts that hurricanes might not be any more frequent than they've been, but that they'll be stronger and more destructive. So far, that seems to be what's happening.

I don't know if Max Mayfield, who's quoted in the article as discounting the role of global warming in the current spate of unusually severe hurricanes, was appointed to his post or not. But since he's the director of NOAA's Tropical Prediction Center, and since he took that position in 2000, I'm assuming he's a Bush appointee.

Now, not to knock Bush, but it's been a fact in the scientific community since Bush took office that science has been ignored and distorted to serve political ends to a shocking and alarming degree. He only appoints scientific advisers who share his views on things--"environmentalists" who don't care for the evnironment; FDA heads who see morning-after contraceptive pills as too risky to sell over the counter despite the scientific evidence; energy czars whe see the the key to our energy problems to be less regulation and more drilling; and atmospheric scientists who scoff at global warming.

I looked up Mr. Mayfield's biography (yes, Mister Mayfield. He apparently doesn't have a Ph.D.), and I see where he's recived a number of awards for promoting hurricane preparedness and education, but none for excellence in meteorology. He appears to be an expert in public safety, not meteorology.

I may be wrong about Mr Mayfield, but the Bush record on science appointees is scandalous and shocking, and unless someone can prove otherwise, I think it's reasonable to conclude that Mr. Mayfield is just another political hack and mouthpiece for the administration.

Here's his bio:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/government/m_mayfield-bio.html

Note that the bio appears on the White House's webpage.

 

[Alex756]

I didn't mean to imply that Katrina was a 5 at landfall, or that Rita will be. Just the fact that both have been classified as Cat 5's, and so close to each other. I fully expect Rita to go down to a 4, or even a 3 before it hits.

It just seems like there is a trend toward larger, more frequent storms, and it looks like we can expect more. We may even end up using Greek names before the end of hurricane season, which, from what I've heard, was only supposed to be a hypothetical situation. I blame a lot of it on global warming.

We've come close before. the naming convention hasn't been around that long. I believe currant though is in the 1880s we would have gone over had tracking then been what it is today

global warming didn;t just switch on in the past 3 - 5 years. remeber 5 years ago hurricane season was next to nothing. This is the cycle is all.

-Alex

 

[Alex756]

I don't know if Max Mayfield, who's quoted in the article as discounting the role of global warming in the current spate of unusually severe hurricanes, was appointed to his post or not. But since he's the director of NOAA's Tropical Prediction Center, and since he took that position in 2000, I'm assuming he's a Bush appointee.

Now, not to knock Bush, but it's been a fact in the scientific community since Bush took office that science has been ignored and distorted to serve political ends to a shocking and alarming degree. He only appoints scientific advisers who share his views on things--"environmentalists" who don't care for the evnironment; FDA heads who see morning-after contraceptive pills as too risky to sell over the counter despite the scientific evidence; energy czars whe see the the key to our energy problems to be less regulation and more drilling; and atmospheric scientists who scoff at global warming.

I looked up Mr. Mayfield's biography (yes, Mister Mayfield. He apparently doesn't have a Ph.D.), and I see where he's recived a number of awards for promoting hurricane preparedness and education, but none for excellence in meteorology. He appears to be an expert in public safety, not meteorology.

I may be wrong about Mr Mayfield, but the Bush record on science appointees is scandalous and shocking, and unless someone can prove otherwise, I think it's reasonable to conclude that Mr. Mayfield is just another political hack and mouthpiece for the administration.

Alot of people with Doctrates in the sciences do NOT go by Dr.

Since he is refered to as Dr in MANY news sources from Oregon to New York to Florida, I think we can be assured he does hav ehis doctorate.

He appears to be ablely qualified.

When he was appointed on June 1st 2000 ... I don't think -Bush- was doing the appointing.

The man is very qualified.

-Alex

 

[dr_mabeuse]

BTW, no serious meteorologist disputes global warming any more. There's still some doubt as to man's place in creating it, but the fact of global warming is pretty well established.

The Australians just released another study on it. They predict a rise in global temperature of between 1 to 6 degrees C over the next hundred years.

That doesn't seem like much, but changes of a quarter of a degree or so over the globe can have devastating effects.

http://www.rednova.com/news/science...ld_spark_conflict/index.html?source=r_science

 

[Alex756]

In defence of Max Mayfield

from http://blog.sun-herald.com/index.cfm?date=9/2005

Only one hero
Posted by: Tropical Bob

Sept. 11 - 10 a.m.

Four years ago today, a hero emerged from the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center's twin towers. The man a nation turned to for leadership was Rudy Giuliani, the mayor of New York City.

Giuliani rose above political considerations and became the person we would follow. He proved to be a strong leader.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina's devastation of the Gulf Coast, no leader ranks as a hero to the people. No mayor. No governor. No President. But there is one man who did his job completely, to the very highest expectations. That man is Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Bob sat down with Mayfield shortly after he became director and we talked for an hour. T.B. was a fan of Bob Sheets, the former director who hunkered down as Hurricane Andrew roared over his headquarters and toppled his radar and satellite equipment. T.B. was even bigger fan of Neil Frank, the flat-topped, excitable hurricane center director for many years.

Mayfield was a sharp contrast. He appears always calm. He does not speak passionately. He doesn't wave his arms. He could look you squarely in the eye and say, "You are going to die in this one." The words might as well be, "Have a nice day."

But Mayfield's hurricane center did its job superbly. The projections of Katrina's future track issued by the center were almost dead-on. The impacted area was the center of a five-day cone. They were warned. They knew the seriousness of Katrina.

Mayfield went further, however. He picked up the telephone and personally called politicians and area leaders. He told them Katrina was indeed "the big one." He told them massive evacuations would be needed. He gave them days to get it done.

Suffice it to say it didn't get done.

He alone is blameless in Katrina's aftermath. As for rest ... we'd have been better served by letting someone who stayed at a Holiday Inn last night lead the effort.

Know this much about Max Mayfield: He doesn't cry wolf. He doesn't issue dire predictions when they won't come true. He doesn't get a kick of scaring people. When he says "get out" you get out! There are plenty of political leaders who learned this too late. They failed all of those who put them in office and gave them power to spend our tax dollars and make decisions in our best interests. They are local, state and federal. And they are responsible for needless deaths now in a way Max Mayfield and his agency don't have to share.

Any man who takes responsibility like though does not deserve attacks based on assumptions.

-Alex

 

[Weird Harold]

From what I understand there is no doubt that the surface of the tropical ocean has been getting warmer since we started keeping records in the '60's

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

The birth of a hurricane is caused by atmoshperic disturbances, but once it forms, the hurricane's energy is largely determined by the temperature of the surface sea water. The higher the temperature, the stronger the hurricane.

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/stories/hurricanes/

Global warming therefore predicts that hurricanes might not be any more frequent than they've been, but that they'll be stronger and more destructive. So far, that seems to be what's happening.

Doc, I've seen several interviews from several other sources that say the roughly the same thing as Mayfiled said -- "Global Warming" is not having as much effect on the strength of storms as some people are claiming.

The best example of what Mayfiled and other meteorologists are saying about the natural cycle being more to blame thanglobal warming is the comment I cought from one tlking head: "The difference in average water temperatures between now and as far back as records of water temperature go is not large enough to raise a hurricane's winds by more than about 10MPH over what it would have been in the past."

Yes, warmer average global temperatures are causing storms to be stronger than they would have been forty, eighty, or one hundred twenty years ago in previous peaks of hurricane activity, but not enough stronger, on average, to raise the categorization of a storm a full category.

In other words, Global Warming is a minor factor in the frequency and strength of huricanes this season -- from what various meteorologists and "science correspondents" on various news source are saying, that means the computer models don't change much using today's water temperatures and the lower average water temperatures of early records of peak seasons. (1-5 degrees of water temperature difference.)

 

[dr_mabeuse]

My apologies to Dr. Mayfield.

I'm just extremely skeptical of any scientist who speaks on behalf of this administration.

 

[Typo Fu Master]

I have nothing against Mayfield and wasn't trying to attack his position. Originally I was of the opinion that global warming was to blame, but I see I was wrong.

Thank you all for your responses.

 

[Weird Harold]

I have nothing against Mayfield and wasn't trying to attack his position. Originally I was of the opinion that global warming was to blame, but I see I was wrong.

Thank you all for your responses.

There are a few meteorlogists that are skirting around the question of global warming's effect on recent hurricane seasons -- like the weatherman from CBS's "Good Morning America" who was interviewed on Fox News Channel as I was surfing the news channels last night.

I don't think there is any reasonably well informed person who doesn't believe that warmer average global temperatures isn't having some effect on storm intensities, but those who know the most about hurricanes -- the NHC andthe dedicated Weather information services -- are nearly unanimous that global warming is NOT the primary cause in the number of hurricanes or the paths they take. The Primary causes are a natural 35-40 year cycle in global weather patterns.