Why Biden Will Win

[MajorRewrite]

Silver states the obvious wrt to those 13 keys.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1814454633039081665

Nate Silver is not impartial.

And as the reply stated in your post, Trump cannot form a coherent sentence. He spews bizarre nonsense.

 

[MajorRewrite]

An epic poem that tells a story. People think in stories. That's why religious documents of enduring religions are full of stories. Data driven policy wonks that can't tell stories get their asses kicked.

Who won the 2020 election? Tell that story, weirdo.

 

[AlexBailey]

Nate Silver is not impartial.

And as the reply stated in your post, Trump cannot form a coherent sentence. He spews bizarre nonsense.

I honestly think part of Trump’s appeal to many of his supporters is that he doesn’t make them feel intellectually inferior.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Nate Silver is not impartial.

And as the reply stated in your post, Trump cannot form a coherent sentence. He spews bizarre nonsense.

No, he’s not impartial. He’s posted a lot about this arguing that Dems have little chance of winning. His model reflects that.

 

[lovecraft68]

Illegals voting
dead people voting
Malfunctioning ballot machines in heavy red areas.
Ballot harvesting

Also, the brainwashed people told that its okay to be invaded by criminals, barely be able to afford to eat, be at war all over the world, have our enemies growing stronger and uniting, because if you care about those things you're a fascist.

 

[Deleted member 1215945]

I am in and have always been in the Biden lane.

I think going with another candidate is election suicide.

I think the reaction to that stupid debate is overblown.

People are less concerned about Biden's age than they are Trump's threat to our country.

I'll never "STFU" about Trump. As long as he is the candidate then Trump will always be part of the conversation. I personally don't think Biden is losing senile or suffering from dementia. I do think that Trump is suffering from dementia and I'll say it as often as I want to whenever I want to. If you don't like it, tough beans.

The biggest threat to Biden is the (mostly Trump supporting) media feeding frenzy and this incessant picking at him. We need a party civil war like we need a fucking whole in the head. Logistically there is no Plan B. There is no logistical path to another candidate. Instead we'll end up with no candidate running against Trump in many states. That's where we are headed with this stupid argument. It's too goddamn late to have the willies.

You go Adrina.

 

[Deleted member 1215945]

Illegals voting
dead people voting
Malfunctioning ballot machines in heavy red areas.
Ballot harvesting

Also, the brainwashed people told that its okay to be invaded by criminals, barely be able to afford to eat, be at war all over the world, have our enemies growing stronger and uniting, because if you care about those things you're a fascist.

Yep! A MAGA NAZI!

 

[KeithD]

14 hours ago as of the time of this post - yesterday.

Thanks. I was afraid it was before recent events.

 

[Bray123]

Illegals voting
dead people voting
Malfunctioning ballot machines in heavy red areas.
Ballot harvesting

Also, the brainwashed people told that its okay to be invaded by criminals, barely be able to afford to eat, be at war all over the world, have our enemies growing stronger and uniting, because if you care about those things you're a fascist.

The only reason we know any of that is true is because Trump supporters have been convicted of doing those things.

 

[BrightShinyGirl]

He’s a charmer and entertainer. The comparison to Barnum is apt. He mesmerizes some. Maybe it’s through his repetition of certain words and phrases. Sometimes his speech has almost the qualities of a poem. What heightens some demoralizes others. You either fall under the trance or are more hardened against for what he stands. Definitely, little gray area. And sadly, there are many who see the power of Trumpy populism and fall into line and toe the line after being vehemently opposed just shortly before.

In Lichtman’s terms Donald Trump is not charismatic. The key refers to someone whose personality is so magnetic they pull supporters from the opposition, like Reagan, JFK, FDR, Teddy Roosevelt, or Bill Clinton. Trump is beloved by MAGA but the rest of the country loathes him so it cancels out.

 

[BrightShinyGirl]

Are you telling me not to believe my own lying eyes and ears? Don’t think for a moment I’m being influenced by right wing media. I’m not.

Honestly, how do you account for his presentation during the debate or during other recent speeches and interviews?

Joe Biden is having senior moments way more often than he was four years ago. I’ve spent a lot of time with older people, including the recent cognitive decline and passing of my father and stepfather. It doesn’t all go at once. They can have long times of lucidity (like during the State of the Union speech) but the times of confusion and not being able to find their words or track the conversation grow longer and more often.

My stepfather had what’s known as sundowner syndrome - it’s very common for people in cognitive decline. He could be sharp as a tack in the morning but would fall off in the afternoon and evenings, not every evening. I wonder if that’s what may have happened to Joe during the debate. He may be having times when he’s on top of his game but others when he loses track. When an older person starts doing that it’s time to turn in their driver’s license.

I honestly think it’s time for Joe to step aside. He didn’t want to run four years ago but no one else had the polls. He said then he was only in for one term, he knew then that he was getting too old for this.

There is no doubt in my mind that he is the better choice over Trump but I greatly doubt he will finish another four year term. I’m not the only person with this perspective and with the margins so close I honestly think he’s going to lose the support of many of the few fence sitters.

I understand the desire to ignore or play down what is obvious to me but I think it undermines the credibility of his supporters and the party in general.

That first video in this thread talks about how early campaign decisions should not be made on the basis of polls, but that’s what made Joe the candidate in the last election. The longer he stays the harder it will be to rally behind a candidate who will be in better shape to lead and in better shape to win.

If you don’t rally behind Biden/Harris you’re supporting Trump. It’s already too late to rally behind a different candidate. There’s no time to start fundraising or hire camapaign workers for a new ticket.

Whispering under your breath about Biden being incapable is a way of supporting Trump, which is why the pro-Trump MSM has been doing it for weeks.

 

[Chernosoth]

The election process is far too long and too expensive. Dumping Biden now would be fine if the campaigns were starting now instead of dragging on for years.

 

[AlexBailey]

If you don’t rally behind Biden/Harris you’re supporting Trump. It’s already too late to rally behind a different candidate. There’s no time to start fundraising or hire camapaign workers for a new ticket.

Whispering under your breath about Biden being incapable is a way of supporting Trump, which is why the pro-Trump MSM has been doing it for weeks.

Bullshit. I’m not a supporter of Trump in any way. But I’m also honest - even when it comes to politics.

 

[AlexBailey]

Illegals voting
dead people voting
Malfunctioning ballot machines in heavy red areas.
Ballot harvesting

Also, the brainwashed people told that its okay to be invaded by criminals, barely be able to afford to eat, be at war all over the world, have our enemies growing stronger and uniting, because if you care about those things you're a fascist.

Those are bullshit right wing talking points and complete dishonesty about what the common tenets of fascism are and who is espousing them.

 

[ll74]

If you don’t rally behind Biden/Harris you’re supporting Trump. It’s already too late to rally behind a different candidate. There’s no time to start fundraising or hire camapaign workers for a new ticket.

Whispering under your breath about Biden being incapable is a way of supporting Trump, which is why the pro-Trump MSM has been doing it for weeks.

Biden is incapable of carrying on the campaign he needs to do to win. Saying that in a forum with absolutely no undecided voters does not help or hurt anyone in any way. If you don't like the opinion, that is perfectly fine, but my statements on this forum don't help Trump or hurt anyone on the Democratic tickets.

Believeling it does is as ludicrous as ignoring that undecided voters believe Biden is observably too old to carry out a second term.

 

[jaF0]

Believeling it does is as ludicrous as ignoring that undecided voters believe Biden is observably too old to carry out a second term.

Irrelevant. There are Constitutional ways for that to work itself out when or if it becomes relevant.

They key for now is to vote (D).

Period.

 

[ll74]

Irrelevant. There are Constitutional ways for that to work itself out when or if it becomes relevant.

They key for now is to vote (D).

Period.

It's relevant. I am voting Democrat. Undecided voters are not.

Period.

 

[MiaBabe23]

I have such mixed feelings about it, I’m so glad I don’t have to decide if he should drop out.
My inclination is towards Biden, as incumbent and a proven trustworthy figure, who has led some key investments and progress during his administration.
However - I think I also agree with the idea that if he dropped out, a competitive convention would draw a lotta media attention, compared to atm, when all that gets talked about for the Dems is Biden’s age.
It’s so risky either way. But a strong figure like Whitmer or Shapiro could really channel the campaign back in the direction it should be going

 

[jomar]

Illegals voting
dead people voting
Malfunctioning ballot machines in heavy red areas.
Ballot harvesting

Also, the brainwashed people told that its okay to be invaded by criminals, barely be able to afford to eat, be at war all over the world, have our enemies growing stronger and uniting, because if you care about those things you're a fascist.

A 2000 Mules fan, eh?

 

[Chernosoth]

Biden is incapable of carrying on the campaign he needs to do to win. Saying that in a forum with absolutely no undecided voters does not help or hurt anyone in any way. If you don't like the opinion, that is perfectly fine, but my statements on this forum don't help Trump or hurt anyone on the Democratic tickets..

There is at least one, me, in a swing state. In autumn, when the rest of the voters notice this is an election year and start paying attention, we will probably know who if this is a two way or three way race, and who will be the distant third.

 

[AlexBailey]

One of the biggest issues among the many I have with Trump is his rampant and blatant dishonesty. It’s one of the easiest things to get his supporters to acknowledge - usually followed by some excuse that they like the effects of his actions rather than his words.

If democrats tell blatant lies about Joe being sharp as a tack it makes them obvious liars. “Don’t believe what you see and hear, believe what we tell you.” I can’t defend that. I’ll hold my nose this time around but for 2028 I will be looking for a party I can support who has more integrity.

Think about it as the lefts version of the Lincoln project. My support will go there.

Maybe 2028 will be Jeffrees vs Cheney? I hope I can support democrats as the honest choice.

 

[ll74]

There is at least one, me, in a swing state. In autumn, when the rest of the voters notice this is an election year and start paying attention, we will probably know who if this is a two way or three way race, and who will be the distant third.

They've already started paying attention at the debate.

 

[adrina]

One of the biggest issues among the many I have with Trump is his rampant and blatant dishonesty. It’s one of the easiest things to get his supporters to acknowledge - usually followed by some excuse that they like the effects of his actions rather than his words.

If democrats tell blatant lies about Joe being sharp as a tack it makes them obvious liars. “Don’t believe what you see and hear, believe what we tell you.” I can’t defend that. I’ll hold my nose this time around but for 2028 I will be looking for a party I can support who has more integrity.

Think about it as the lefts version of the Lincoln project. My support will go there.

Maybe 2028 will be Jeffrees vs Cheney? I hope I can support democrats as the honest choice.

I don't think anyone has said he's "sharp as a tack". Pretty much everyone I know has acknowledged that he's not the man he used to be. That does not mean he is ready to be put out to pasture or that he's approaching life as a potato. Not even close.

It means he is older and yes his age makes it difficult to keep his speech motor disorder in check sometimes. But he does have a clear grasp on policy and knows how to effectively work to get legislation passed. That's miles above RFK. And light years above Trump.

I know we need younger blood. I'd love it myself. The "no, you're candidate has dementia!" meme is beyond ridiculous. I'm glad you realize what is at stake - just like ll does. I think a lot of people do. That's why I think Joe Biden will win and his broad coalition against Trump will deliver that.

In the meantime I would encourage everyone to try to get millennials and Zs informed, involved, voting and running. I'd love to vote for a younger generation. I'd love for them to be a loud and boisterous voting bloc. And I mean that with more sincerity and feeling than can effectively be conveyed.

 

[AlexBailey]

I don't think anyone has said he's "sharp as a tack". Pretty much everyone I know has acknowledged that he's not the man he used to be. That does not mean he is ready to be put out to pasture or that he's approaching life as a potato. Not even close.

It means he is older and yes his age makes it difficult to keep his speech motor disorder in check sometimes. But he does have a clear grasp on policy and knows how to effectively work to get legislation passed. That's miles above RFK. And light years above Trump.

I know we need younger blood. I'd love it myself. The "no, you're candidate has dementia!" meme is beyond ridiculous. I'm glad you realize what is at stake - just like ll does. I think a lot of people do. That's why I think Joe Biden will win and his broad coalition against Trump will deliver that.

In the meantime I would encourage everyone to try to get millennials and Zs informed, involved, voting and running. I'd love to vote for a younger generation. I'd love for them to be a loud and boisterous voting bloc. And I mean that with more sincerity and feeling than can effectively be conveyed.

I’m struggling to convince my kids that voting is worthwhile. They have seen courts over rule voter initiatives and established law. They’ve seen shenanigans and fraud by politicians of every stripe.

Israel and Palestine are big on their minds. They don’t like Trump but they laugh at the idea of Grandpa Joe being able to complete another term.

I’m still trying to get them to understand that an administration can be a success even when failing to get everything on the campaign platform enacted. They hear so much noise from so many directions. Having observable lies waved in their faces by Biden supporters does not help.

 

[adrina]

I’m struggling to convince my kids that voting is worthwhile. They have seen courts over rule voter initiatives and established law. They’ve seen shenanigans and fraud by politicians of every stripe.

They laugh at the idea of Grandpa Joe being able to complete another term.

I’m still trying to get them to understand that an administration can be a success even when failing to get everything on the campaign platform established. They hear so much noise from so many directions. Having observable lies waved in their faces by Biden supporters does not help.

I was raised with the very clear expectation that voting was not optional. If you didn't vote, you don't get to complain. While I realize that it's a bit late for that tactic, the reality is that voting can be a very selfish act. In this instance, you realize that you are voting for self preservation. That you don't want the country to have to withstand the instability of more Trump, more conservative SCOTUS justices etc.

Honestly, it's bigger than "Grandpa Joe". It's about the kids themselves. I don't know how strong their sense of self preservation is but that's what voting is about. If they ever want to see it turned around, voting is the easiest option. Burning it down to the ground won't bring what they need.

I'm not being flippant.