Why Biden Will Win

[Saint_Ann]

I watch them when I have time, albeit not this one because I'm already familiar with Prof. Lichtman.

I can't waste that much time on something as inconsequential as a presidential election.

 

[Lazaran]

Biden being senile is a right-wing lie . It's not true.

I’ll co-sign this ^.



I was about to leave my own reply to AB’s comment, but AB didn’t really deserve the invective I was about to unload on them for their faux pas.



I’ll reserve my vitriol for those who truly deserve it:

MAGAts and the media.

 

[BrightShinyGirl]

I think people are misunderstanding how Lichtman's system works. Basically the incumbent party has a huge advantage unless something major is going wrong and the voters want a change. There are 13 factors that correlate with how the voters feel about the incumbent party. These aren't factors that cause voters to vote for the incumbent party, they correlate with them doing so.

In 2024, Biden has 10 of these 13 factors on his side. The only three that are against him are:

1. He hasn't made a major domestic policy change.
2. He hasn't scored a major foreign policy victory.
3. He's not charismatic.

Biden will win.

 

[BrightShinyGirl]

Looking back at Lichtman's own predictions for 2024 on the Wikipedia page, I think he's overestimated how much of an effect the hard left support for Hamas will have on the election, and I think based on the special elections we've seen this year, the Democrats do have a party mandate. I will grant that Build Back Better was a major domestic policy change, but since the news media didn't report on it, I don't know if counts as a major domestic policy change in Biden's favor.

Joe Biden definitely isn't charismatic. Fortunately, Donald Trump isn't either.

 

[KeithD]

Is there a date available when this was recorded?

 

[Lazaran]

Looking back at Lichtman's own predictions for 2024 on the Wikipedia page, I think he's overestimated how much of an effect the hard left support for Hamas will have on the election, and I think based on the special elections we've seen this year, the Democrats do have a party mandate. I will grant that Build Back Better was a major domestic policy change, but since the news media didn't report on it, I don't know if counts as a major domestic policy change in Biden's favor.

Joe Biden definitely isn't charismatic. Fortunately, Donald Trump isn't either.

The interesting thing about the attacks on President Biden due to his Israel -Gaza policies, is that the left wing of the base may be giving added cover to the donor class as they seek to unseat President Biden for a variety of reasons that have nothing to do with advancing peace in Gaza: The money to be made off the chaos of an open primary; the money to be made by a second Trump presidency; the various agendas and projects that the donor - class - replacement - candidate has promised to prioritize if they somehow get elected over Trump, etc, etc.



It really is going to come down to the entire voting base (especially the left) rallying / coalescing around President Biden to fend off the assault from the elite Donor class that is seeking to oust him.

AOC throwing her voice and weight behind President Biden was HIUUUUUUUGE, imho.

 

[AlexBailey]

Biden being senile is a right-wing lie . It's not true.

Are you telling me not to believe my own lying eyes and ears? Don’t think for a moment I’m being influenced by right wing media. I’m not.

Honestly, how do you account for his presentation during the debate or during other recent speeches and interviews?

Joe Biden is having senior moments way more often than he was four years ago. I’ve spent a lot of time with older people, including the recent cognitive decline and passing of my father and stepfather. It doesn’t all go at once. They can have long times of lucidity (like during the State of the Union speech) but the times of confusion and not being able to find their words or track the conversation grow longer and more often.

My stepfather had what’s known as sundowner syndrome - it’s very common for people in cognitive decline. He could be sharp as a tack in the morning but would fall off in the afternoon and evenings, not every evening. I wonder if that’s what may have happened to Joe during the debate. He may be having times when he’s on top of his game but others when he loses track. When an older person starts doing that it’s time to turn in their driver’s license.

I honestly think it’s time for Joe to step aside. He didn’t want to run four years ago but no one else had the polls. He said then he was only in for one term, he knew then that he was getting too old for this.

There is no doubt in my mind that he is the better choice over Trump but I greatly doubt he will finish another four year term. I’m not the only person with this perspective and with the margins so close I honestly think he’s going to lose the support of many of the few fence sitters.

I understand the desire to ignore or play down what is obvious to me but I think it undermines the credibility of his supporters and the party in general.

That first video in this thread talks about how early campaign decisions should not be made on the basis of polls, but that’s what made Joe the candidate in the last election. The longer he stays the harder it will be to rally behind a candidate who will be in better shape to lead and in better shape to win.

 

[Brains_N_Boobs]

Biden will be dropping out of the race for POTUS within the next two weeks. He is losing more and more support each day.

 

[AlexBailey]

The interesting thing about the attacks on President Biden due to his Israel -Gaza policies, is that the left wing of the base may be giving added cover to the donor class as they seek to unseat President Biden for a variety of reasons that have nothing to do with advancing peace in Gaza: The money to be made off the chaos of an open primary; the money to be made by a second Trump presidency; the various agendas and projects that the donor - class - replacement - candidate has promised to prioritize if they somehow get elected over Trump, etc, etc.



It really is going to come down to the entire voting base (especially the left) rallying / coalescing around President Biden to fend off the assault from the elite Donor class that is seeking to oust him.

AOC throwing her voice and weight behind President Biden was HIUUUUUUUGE, imho.

It’s not an assault by the donor class, it’s an exodus.

 

[AlexBailey]

Joe Biden definitely isn't charismatic. Fortunately, Donald Trump isn't either.

I share your opinions on this but there are a lot of people who are absolutely gobsmacked by Trump’s ‘charisma’.

 

[Bray123]

The reason people will vote for Biden?
Because he's not Trump. Anyone not Trump will suffice.

The reason why people will vote for Trump?
Because he's a sex offender who said many times that he would be sleeping with Ivanka if she were not his daughter.
Because he's a shameless grifter.
Because he's a felon.
Because.... he reflects their values.

 

[dmallord]

Why Biden will win...

It is one of the most truthful news statements about Trump and Biden's stark differences. It sounds just like @adrina!

 

[Lazaran]

It’s not an assault by the donor class, it’s an exodus.

It’s more than an exodus, imho.

The donor class calling representatives and telling them to pressure President Biden to step aside is more than an exodus.

George Clooney writing a New York Times op-ed calling for President Biden to drop out is more than an exodus.

The Disney heiress going public about not donating unless President Biden is replaced is more than an exodus.

Corporate Media (the donor class) pushing the narrative 24/7 that it is an insurmountable challenge for President Biden to remain the candidate is more than an exodus.

 

[Bodington]

I think everyone can agree that if Biden is not the Democratic Party nominee he cannot win in November. The current news cycle suggests that he will voluntarily resign from the race succumbing to the pressure exerted by the leaders of the Party urging him to resign because the polls seem to indicate he can't beat Trump.

 

[adrina]

Is there a date available when this was recorded?

14 hours ago as of the time of this post - yesterday.

 

[adrina]

Are you telling me not to believe my own lying eyes and ears? Don’t think for a moment I’m being influenced by right wing media. I’m not.

Honestly, how do you account for his presentation during the debate or during other recent speeches and interviews?

Joe Biden is having senior moments way more often than he was four years ago. I’ve spent a lot of time with older people, including the recent cognitive decline and passing of my father and stepfather. It doesn’t all go at once. They can have long times of lucidity (like during the State of the Union speech) but the times of confusion and not being able to find their words or track the conversation grow longer and more often.

My stepfather had what’s known as sundowner syndrome - it’s very common for people in cognitive decline. He could be sharp as a tack in the morning but would fall off in the afternoon and evenings, not every evening. I wonder if that’s what may have happened to Joe during the debate. He may be having times when he’s on top of his game but others when he loses track. When an older person starts doing that it’s time to turn in their driver’s license.

I honestly think it’s time for Joe to step aside. He didn’t want to run four years ago but no one else had the polls. He said then he was only in for one term, he knew then that he was getting too old for this.

There is no doubt in my mind that he is the better choice over Trump but I greatly doubt he will finish another four year term. I’m not the only person with this perspective and with the margins so close I honestly think he’s going to lose the support of many of the few fence sitters.

I understand the desire to ignore or play down what is obvious to me but I think it undermines the credibility of his supporters and the party in general.

That first video in this thread talks about how early campaign decisions should not be made on the basis of polls, but that’s what made Joe the candidate in the last election. The longer he stays the harder it will be to rally behind a candidate who will be in better shape to lead and in better shape to win.

Question: do you understand that having Biden step down - even voluntarily - presents the very real risk of having no name on the ballot in several states?

There is no plan B and there isn't time to make one, especially since no one is coming forward and no one agrees on an alternative candidate. The donor class wants Harris out and if she goes then we lose the black vote, and we lose the election.

Like I told ll, it's too late for the willies.

 

[TallMan69]

I share your opinions on this but there are a lot of people who are absolutely gobsmacked by Trump’s ‘charisma’.

He’s a charmer and entertainer. The comparison to Barnum is apt. He mesmerizes some. Maybe it’s through his repetition of certain words and phrases. Sometimes his speech has almost the qualities of a poem. What heightens some demoralizes others. You either fall under the trance or are more hardened against for what he stands. Definitely, little gray area. And sadly, there are many who see the power of Trumpy populism and fall into line and toe the line after being vehemently opposed just shortly before.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Silver states the obvious wrt to those 13 keys.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1814454633039081665

 

[Chernosoth]

He’s a charmer and entertainer. The comparison to Barnum is apt. He mesmerizes some. Maybe it’s through his repetition of certain words and phrases. Sometimes his speech has almost the qualities of a poem.

An epic poem that tells a story. People think in stories. That's why religious documents of enduring religions are full of stories. Data driven policy wonks that can't tell stories get their asses kicked.

 

[jaF0]

Are you telling me not to believe my own lying eyes and ears? Don’t think for a moment I’m being influenced by right wing media. I’m not.

I don't care if he can talk. I don't care if he can walk. I don't care if he falls asleep in the evening, or morning.

I care what he accomplishes. I care what his name is signed to, even if he has to have help to sign it.

Joe does good. THAT's what matters.

 

[HisArpy]

Do people bother watching the 100s of youtube videos you keep posting?

I'd rather not waste the 3.5 minutes or sacrifice the 10,000 brain cells.

 

[subdudeme13]

What ever!

 

[Chernosoth]

I care what he accomplishes. I care what his name is signed to, even if he has to have help to sign it.

Joe does good. THAT's what matters.

I see an absolute flaming wreck. What he has accomplished, or what has been accomplished in his name, gets him tossed.

 

[AlexBailey]

Question: do you understand that having Biden step down - even voluntarily - presents the very real risk of having no name on the ballot in several states?

There is no plan B and there isn't time to make one, especially since no one is coming forward and no one agrees on an alternative candidate. The donor class wants Harris out and if she goes then we lose the black vote, and we lose the election.

Like I told ll, it's too late for the willies.

I’m afraid it is too late. I’m going to vote and I will vehemently encourage everyone else to vote for Joe but I have dwindling confidence that he will attract enough voters to beat PT Barnum.

 

[adrina]

I’m afraid it is too late. I’m going to vote and I will vehemently encourage everyone else to vote for Joe but I have dwindling confidence that he will attract enough voters to beat PT Barnum.

One thing to note that is very different from 2016 - how many times people are saying "I'll vote for Joe Biden even though..." In 2016 it was "no I can't vote for her, I just don't trust her" and "I'll give Trump a chance, how bad can he be?"

Those later two statements are nowhere to be found whereas the first statement is all over the place.

I think Joe Biden will win. Especially as long as people keep saying things like you did - that you are voting and encouraging others to as well.