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Just the Polls

butters said:
oh, wait, wait! I got this, and using a popular magat quote:

"fuck. your. feelings."
Click to expand...
All they have is feelings because education left them a long time ago.

Reunions based on their 5th grade class is really tough…
 
Latest Nate Silver forecast model update just released this evening.

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast​

All the numbers you really care about.​

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_80,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13e5ea2b-2c4b-45f4-9fce-66c268368691_512x512.jpeghttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_80,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F686d52f5-c360-4b02-b18a-b9811ab8f3d5_4800x4800.jpeg

Last update: 6:40 p.m, Monday, July 1: “We’re got a string of polls in late this afternoon, they’re mostly poor for Joe Biden, and they’re beginning to have a bigger impact on the model. Trump now leads by 2.7 points in our national average. And Biden’s win probability has dropped to 28 percent from 35 percent on debate night. Our guess is that more likely than not, there’s some further decline ahead: the model is trying to figure out whether this is random noise, but instead it’s almost certainly caused by a challenging first debate for Biden. It’s not great news for the president. We do have some new custom fonts in the tables, though.”

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
 
BabyBoomer50s said:
Latest Nate Silver forecast model update just released this evening.

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast​

All the numbers you really care about.​

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_80,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13e5ea2b-2c4b-45f4-9fce-66c268368691_512x512.jpeghttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_80,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F686d52f5-c360-4b02-b18a-b9811ab8f3d5_4800x4800.jpeg

Last update: 6:40 p.m, Monday, July 1: “We’re got a string of polls in late this afternoon, they’re mostly poor for Joe Biden, and they’re beginning to have a bigger impact on the model. Trump now leads by 2.7 points in our national average. And Biden’s win probability has dropped to 28 percent from 35 percent on debate night. Our guess is that more likely than not, there’s some further decline ahead: the model is trying to figure out whether this is random noise, but instead it’s almost certainly caused by a challenging first debate for Biden. It’s not great news for the president. We do have some new custom fonts in the tables, though.”

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Click to expand...
1000010951.jpg
 
BabyBoomer50s said:
USA Today-Suffolk University

Trump 41.4%
Biden 37.5%
Kennedy 8.2%
Chase Oliver (Libertarian) 1.4%
West 1.3%
Stein 1.%
Undecided 7.9%

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suf...hash=ABAFA7F15270D95BED9D3AF3AE64775DA6C8886C

Edit: added USA Today news release
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news.../02/biden-trump-poll-post-debate/74263315007/
Click to expand...
Interesting, when asked what one word would change your mind, “younger” garnered fewer than 5%. As well as the change in who they voted for in 2020 to whom they would vote for in 2024.
 
Last edited:
I find this interesting, too:

When it comes to congressional elections, 47% said they would vote for the unnamed Republican candidate in their district; 45% for the Democratic one. That edge, while small, could be encouraging for GOP hopes of retaining their narrow majority in the House of Representatives.
 
Aglaopheme said:
So in January it was 49% of democrats and now it’s 32% that say Biden should not be in the race. Interesting.
Click to expand...
I’m not convinced he’s out yet but we’re hearing more Democrats today calling for him to step aside. Hope he ignores them.
 
Tbh, I never thought boomer would lead the thread, but it's interesting that no one else has more. (Including myself)
 
ll74 said:
Tbh, I never thought boomer would lead the thread, but it's interesting that no one else has more. (Including myself)
Click to expand...
I’m old enough to remember when the only survey data available to the public were occasional polls released by major news outlets. We learned about them in the newspapers or broadcast news outlets, they were few and far between and all they gave were top line results.
 
BabyBoomer50s said:
I’m old enough to remember when the only survey data available to the public were occasional polls released by major news outlets. We learned about them in the newspapers or broadcast news outlets, they were few and far between and all they gave were top line results.
Click to expand...
I appreciate it.
 
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