Iran Is About To Gain A Nuclear Weapon Under Biden

[ll74]

They were following the Iraqi model of compliance.

If we're going to argue by Google Link,
then you're going to have to accept
some contrary evidence.

But we don't have to do that.
We know the nature of tyrannies and
the motivations of the players in that region.

They put up enough of a show of compliance to placate our Left
and then continued to violate the terms of the agreement in full knowledge
that we were more embroiled in internecine turf wars than we were with seeing an eye on them...

Google?? WTF are you talking about?

We had verification....people in the ground....actual nuclear experts monitoring them

Then we left and they still had people.there....until Iran pointed out that the deal was not being held up (because the US left and stopped adhering to it)

 

[ll74]

We had verification on everything that they would let us see...


I have a great deal on a bridge. Tenths of pennies on the square foot. Interested?

Feel free to provide a nuclear proliferation expert who agrees with your ignorance.

(Hint: there isn't one)

 

[Champakian]

Honest ignorance is one thing, I can work around that,
but a willful ignorance to prove a political point as you do,

well, that is just inexcusable.

You have a nice day. I'm done butting my head against a wall built out of partisanship...

 

[ll74]

Honest ignorance is one thing, I can work around that,
but a willful ignorance to prove a political point as you do,

well, that is just inexcusable.

You have a nice day. I'm done butting my head against a wall built out of partisanship...

Lol...you're full of shit.

I have presented evidence that they were adhering to the deal

From the records that show the actual data

You e provided political spin and speculation.

You have nothing to back up your statement.

The willful ignorance is not on my side.

 

[bellisarius]

Nuclear war in our time. Wonderful.

 

[Champakian]

Food for thought: https://ncr-iran.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Irans_Military_Nuclear_Program.pdf



(I.e., well-documented evidence that they were not adhering to the agreement as I stated
and unless you are guided by use partisan leanings common knowledge.)

 

[Champakian]

"All the evidence cited in this report and all of that which has been learned about the regime’s efforts in these years, suggest that the clerical regime is covertly continuing its nuclear weapons drive, and that even the JCPOA has been unable to halt the regime’s military nuclear weapons projects, and that the regime has maintained, continued and furthered its military nuclear apparatus and activities in violation of the JCPOA."

 

[ll74]

https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/20...iran-raises-serious-concerns-about-monitoring

The report is damning and acnnowledges that the reason we're in this position is because of the previous administration

Unfortunately, the Biden administration has not waived sanctions reimposed by former President Donald Trump targeting the transfer of uranium to Iran, including fuel for the TRR. The nuclear deal requires the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom) to ensure Iran can import fuel for that reactor. While Iran would likely have pursued uranium metal anyways as part of its strategy to press the United States into returning to the JCPOA, granting waivers would have removed Tehran’s justification that the uranium metal fuel for the TRR is necessary for its functioning.

 

[ll74]

Food for thought: https://ncr-iran.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Irans_Military_Nuclear_Program.pdf



(I.e., well-documented evidence that they were not adhering to the agreement as I stated
and unless you are guided by use partisan leanings common knowledge.)

An odd thing I noticed about your "NCRI" - there isn't a single expert on the topic.

Reviewing their records, their bias is clear. I don't doubt their report, though I certainly view their report with skepticism and defer to the IAEA who has more actual experience as well as more people who have directly monitored.

What continues to be clear is that centrifuges were shut down and data directly provided to ensure that. The IAEA had enough access to be able to capture any attempt to circumvent the deal.

 

[ll74]

To not acknowledge the previous administration's exit from the deal as a severe impediment to nuclear proliferation negotiations is just stupid.

 

[Champakian]

The difficulty in having a discussion with a True Believer such as yourself
is that there is only one set of facts that they consider valid,
those facts that they agree with...

 

[Champakian]

On what date did Iran sign the JCPOA that they were
supposed to be following so strictly and honestly?

 

[Champakian]

http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2013/ph241/perret2/docs/Iran-Nuclear-Program.pdf

 

[bellisarius]

The difficulty in having a discussion with a True Believer such as yourself
is that there is only one set of facts that they consider valid,
those facts that they agree with...

There's that, then there's the time line.

They were 10 years away from having a nuke in 2018, now they're 2 months away. The 2018 estimate was based on their compliance with the agreement. There is no way they be merely 2 months away now had they not be circumventing the agreement to begin with.

Now, everyone can sit around placing blame and pointing fingers but that avoids the core issue, what in the hell is anyone going to do about it? I can assure you that the Israeli's have plans and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Saudi Arabia isn't actively participating in those plans.

Is Brandon going to put a couple of carrier battle groups in the gulf to protect the Iranian's from the Israeli's (and the Saudi's)?

 

[ll74]

The difficulty in having a discussion with a True Believer such as yourself
is that there is only one set of facts that they consider valid,
those facts that they agree with...

Where did I say that your source wasn't valid?

I said that I trust data from a source that has actual people with expertise in nuclear technology and with people actually in the country with tools performing actual measurements more than I trust a group who publicly admit their bias (in their actual name) and who have no nuclear technology expertise, no people in the country and who don't have any actual measurements.

But if you somehow give the same weight to your source, who are political scientists with obvious bias against Iran, (or more weight which it seems) as you do the IAEA, I think that's a good example of your position

 

[ll74]

There's that, then there's the time line.

They were 10 years away from having a nuke in 2018, now they're 2 months away. The 2018 estimate was based on their compliance with the agreement. There is no way they be merely 2 months away now had they not be circumventing the agreement to begin with.

Now, everyone can sit around placing blame and pointing fingers but that avoids the core issue, what in the hell is anyone going to do about it? I can assure you that the Israeli's have plans and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Saudi Arabia isn't actively participating in those plans.

Is Brandon going to put a couple of carrier battle groups in the gulf to protect the Iranian's from the Israeli's (and the Saudi's)?

The timeline was based on the measures remaining in place that were part of the deal. You not understanding that diminishes your position completely.

 

[ll74]

http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2013/ph241/perret2/docs/Iran-Nuclear-Program.pdf

This is from prior to the JCPOA.

 

[Champakian]

There's that, then there's the time line.

They were 10 years away from having a nuke in 2018, now they're 2 months away. The 2018 estimate was based on their compliance with the agreement. There is no way they be merely 2 months away now had they not be circumventing the agreement to begin with.

Now, everyone can sit around placing blame and pointing fingers but that avoids the core issue, what in the hell is anyone going to do about it? I can assure you that the Israeli's have plans and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Saudi Arabia isn't actively participating in those plans.

Is Brandon going to put a couple of carrier battle groups in the gulf to protect the Iranian's from the Israeli's (and the Saudi's)?

Trust me. If the current President was an (R) a lot of people
would change their narrative in a heartbeat and instead of
denying blame, they would be assessing it, with gusto...

We know they were ignoring an agreement that they never signed on to,
but has somehow become Holy Writ and our original sin was that
we withdrew from a unenforceable one-sided agreement.

Sanctions don't work. Too many of our non-allies
(and maybe even some of our allies) want their oil so
they're willing to look the other way as they build their bomb.

 

[Champakian]

This is from prior to the JCPOA.

When did Iran sign on to the JCPOA since it is your Gold Standard.


This is the second time that I've asked..

 

[ll74]

Trust me. If the current President was an (R) a lot of people
would change their narrative in a heartbeat and instead of
denying blame, they would be assessing it, with gusto...

We know they were ignoring an agreement that they never signed on to,
but has somehow become Holy Writ and our original sin was that
we withdrew from a unenforceable one-sided agreement.

Sanctions don't work. Too many of our non-allies
(and maybe even some of our allies) want their oil so
they're willing to look the other way as they build their bomb.

Completely ignoring the collected data is not a good look.

Iran absolutely signed onto the deal and the IAEA verified as such. In instances where there was evidence they were sidestepping, it was reported and documented as well.

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iran/iaea-and-iran-iaea-reports

 

[bellisarius]

The timeline was based on the measures remaining in place that were part of the deal. You not understanding that diminishes your position completely.

The time line was ALWAYS an estimate. No one knew for certain how far along the Iranians were because the inspectors were not allowed into certain critical facilities. Because the time line was basically a fiction trotted out for public consumption then any side can assert anything they want. Fine.

But you're still stuck on finger pointing not solution finding, and apparently that's where the administration is stuck as well.

If the Iranians aren't stopped the Israeli's WILL nuke the Iranians just as surely as the Iranian's will nuke the Israeli's once they have a working weapon.

 

[ll74]

When did Iran sign on to the JCPOA since it is your Gold Standard.


This is the second time that I've asked..

July 14, 2015 - agreement signed on by Iran and P5+1
July 20, 2015 - UN adopts agreement

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/JCPOA-at-a-glance

For someone who seems to know so much about it, you seem to be lacking details from it (outside of political spin sites)

 

[Champakian]

Iran was deemed to have signed on.

They never even bothered to comply because the worldwide
Left was too busy patting themselves on the back and
congratulating themselves for peace in their time
to actually force Iran to open ALL of its sites.

 

[ll74]

The time line was ALWAYS an estimate. No one knew for certain how far along the Iranians were because the inspectors were not allowed into certain critical facilities. Because the time line was basically a fiction trotted out for public consumption then any side can assert anything they want. Fine.

But you're still stuck on finger pointing not solution finding, and apparently that's where the administration is stuck as well.

If the Iranians aren't stopped the Israeli's WILL nuke the Iranians just as surely as the Iranian's will nuke the Israeli's once they have a working weapon.

The timeline was an estimate based on measurements by nuclear proliferation experts taken in the actual country. What estimates we have now are based on whatever might be leftover from that and involve much more guesswork.

The OP isn't about solution finding, it's about finger pointing. Maybe start another thread if you have a different goal in mind.

Our position is a direct result of the previous administrations disastrous actions. We have no real political leverage left.....the only option involves giving Iran more than we want or actively engaging militarily.

Israel is going to chart their own path....they typically do in regards to the middle east.

 

[phrodeau]

Iran may or may not have acted in good faith, but the Trump admin definitely did not, and with the lights on.