The latest and greatest "model"!!!

[zipman]

If you took a moment and did some backward statistical analysis, the rate of spread does not support the numbers China is providing when describing the mortality rate due to the covid-19 outbreak.

The mortality rate figures in China just based on the european models should perhaps be closer to 100,000 to 200,000 with a transmission of 10 to 20 times their lying and dishonest reported levels. Having more realistic data sets and not the anecdotal crap they gave the WHO would have put most countries in a higher sense of urgency and definitely would have changed how we did things in the states. I don't think people realize how destructive not having an accurate person to person transmission rate data sets early on really is, it's everything!!! You go blame whomever you want but the fudging of statistical transmission and mortality rates by China is on par with crimes against humanity and should be prosecuted as such.

Those links were disproving Ish saying it was bullshit that Obama left Trump a playbook on how to fight a pandemic. 69 pages of a playbook detailing exactly this kind of scenario.

So you post about mortality rates. Smh

 

[VaticanAssassin]

@Vat my thread on one's own risk being more than just arithmetic computations went completely over most poster's heads. At some point modeling was in the news so the nudnicks sputtered, "but, but, MODELS use math!!" because I pointed out that some of the math was completely meaningless because of the unknowns.


@HisArpy- True if your friend, family member or acquaintance is in the .05% of the population that might die under the current, worst case model.

Which also assumes low efficacy of treatment experiments on those most vulnerable and hospitalized.

Your odds go up significantly if your loved one lives in a densely populated city. Does anyone know anyone in, say NYC, you'd miss? I don't.

Newark ain't looking good, but my mans Smooth ain't lived his whole reckless life to this point to be taken out by no virus.

So Zip completely not understanding what you said. Trying to assign you a false position. While probably not even understanding the position he is taken.

Yep. Same lit shit, different day.

 

[zipman]

So Zip completely not understanding what you said. Trying to assign you a false position. While probably not even understanding the position he is taken.

Yep. Same lit shit, different day.

Dead wrong as usual.

But I'm not surprised - apple/tree.

 

[DeluxAuto]

Do you mean like how New Orleans Mayor encouraged Mardi Gras, DeBlasio encouraged anyone who's asymptomatic to do all the the things that you normally, go to bars and restaurants? Or more like help Pelosi urge to everyone to go sample the delights of Chinatown?

Or Trump wanting a massive Easter mass.

 

[HisArpy]

Or Trump wanting a massive Easter mass.

So, you're trying to compare things that ACTUALLY HAPPENED to a "proposed" celebration that hasn't and probably won't?



Did your mom drop you on your head again or something?

 

[DeluxAuto]

Or Trump wanting a massive Easter mass.

So, you're trying to compare things that ACTUALLY HAPPENED to a "proposed" celebration that hasn't and probably won't?



Did your mom drop you on your head again or something?

Bolded the obvious part for you. Did your momma play basketball with your head?

 

[HisArpy]

Bolded the obvious part for you. Did your momma play basketball with your head?

So, you're admitting you're trying to compare actual events to a proposed event that hasn't happened and then trying to make it seem like someone else fucked up instead of you?


Yeah, typical Luk-speak.

 

[icanhelp1]

Most of the people pointing fingers in all of this are denying the fact that when you don't have actual reliable data, any decisions you make on the data you have will be flawed. This is especially true when the data sources intentionally lie to you prior to and during your decision making process.

It doesn't matter where you get the data, if it's falsified, your decisions will not be based on what's really happening. 20/20 hindsight cannot change this no matter how gleeful the detractors are over it.

Whats ironic is, how early on, some posters had some pretty gloomy predictions based on incomplete models but where closer to the truth 1 month earlier. The CCP denying the most important data ( person to person transmission and rates ) what were scientist using to forecast such large numbers and create those models. Wuhan has a population of 11 million and with current transmission models only reported approx 83,000 infections with a mortality count # of 3300. The WHO and China outright lied and truly have blood on their hands. The WHO will forever have a tarnished history.

 

[VaticanAssassin]

Dead wrong as usual.

But I'm not surprised - apple/tree.

Him: "Leaving aside the fact that the math is meaningless when you do not know who has been exposed or even who became infected from their exposure, there is a continuum for each contact in terms of exposure time and the viral load transmitted in any given exposure."

A correct statement

You: "HA HA ""Math is meaningless""


Tell me again how I am dead wrong

And look...here you are again in this thread using half quotes and changing the context.

So it is either:

A: Simply too stupid to understand what people are saying
B: Lying political hack that will spin anything to try to prove a point.
C: Both

I will go ahead and vote C.

 

[DeluxAuto]

So, you're admitting you're trying to compare actual events to a proposed event that hasn't happened and then trying to make it seem like someone else fucked up instead of you?


Yeah, typical Luk-speak.

What?

 

[icanhelp1]

Those links were disproving Ish saying it was bullshit that Obama left Trump a playbook on how to fight a pandemic. 69 pages of a playbook detailing exactly this kind of scenario.

So you post about mortality rates. Smh

So, did you read page 37, it says make sure you replace everything you use so the next admin doesn't have to play catch up while in the middle of a crisis. CDC has always had a response guide which was updated in 2006 by G.W.


www.cdc.gov › flu › pandemic-resources › pdf › pandemic-influenza...
PDF

 

[zipman]

Him: "Leaving aside the fact that the math is meaningless when you do not know who has been exposed or even who became infected from their exposure, there is a continuum for each contact in terms of exposure time and the viral load transmitted in any given exposure."

A correct statement

You: "HA HA ""Math is meaningless""


Tell me again how I am dead wrong

And look...here you are again in this thread using half quotes and changing the context.

So it is either:

A: Simply too stupid to understand what people are saying
B: Lying political hack that will spin anything to try to prove a point.
C: Both

I will go ahead and vote C.

LOL, you accuse me of "using half quotes and changing the context" when that is exactly what you have done to me regarding my response to his thread.

Let's take a look at exactly what he said and I will bold the relevant part that you left out since you (like Que) are too stupid to understand it.

I get that people want to track the "progress" of the disease for a sense of how imperiled they or loved ones may be. Being able to multiply by two and to notice the interval of time of (reported) cases doubling is meaningless. Being able to do the math(s) on the rate of increases of hospitilizations or deaths is only useful as a measure of a population's general increase in exposure.

Leaving aside the fact that the math is meaningless when you do not know who has been exposed or even who became infected from their exposure, there is a continuum for each contact in terms of exposure time and the viral load transmitted in any given exposure.

Infected does not mean equally infectious for each person or in any individual throughout their course of infection.

Good article for thinking about the degree of risk with each contact with an infected person being non-linear:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/06/how-does-the-coronavirus-behave-inside-a-patient?

The idea that the actual rate of hospitalizations doubling or the number of deaths doubling proves that math is meaningless unless you know the number of infected is so fucking stupid it defies logic. But hey, I'm a lefty and therefore, the enemy.

First off, knowing the actual number of infected is impossible with the current limits on testing, both availability as well as their legitimate concerns about their accuracy. That would be useful in determining the death rate or lethality of the virus which we can only guess at right now.

But to suggest that the "math is meaningless" for hospitalizations doubling and death rates doubling is completely different as those are actual numbers, you know, data. What those help show is where the virus is on the bell curve that is everywhere and our healthcare system's ability to care for the sick.

The rate of increase of the death rate doubling will help us to determine whether the measures currently in place are helping slow the pandemic.

That is why the experts are using those statistics. But I guess you and Que know more than the pandemic experts, right? FFS, this is pretty basic stuff.

He made a stupid comment and you chose to back him up on THAT nonsense.

Again, apple/tree.

 

[VaticanAssassin]

LOL, you accuse me of "using half quotes and changing the context" when that is exactly what you have done to me regarding my response to his thread.

Let's take a look at exactly what he said and I will bold the relevant part that you left out since you (like Que) are too stupid to understand it.



The idea that the actual rate of hospitalizations doubling or the number of deaths doubling proves that math is meaningless unless you know the number of infected is so fucking stupid it defies logic. But hey, I'm a lefty and therefore, the enemy.

First off, knowing the actual number of infected is impossible with the current limits on testing, both availability as well as their legitimate concerns about their accuracy. That would be useful in determining the death rate or lethality of the virus which we can only guess at right now.

But to suggest that the "math is meaningless" for hospitalizations doubling and death rates doubling is completely different as those are actual numbers, you know, data. What those help show is where the virus is on the bell curve that is everywhere and our healthcare system's ability to care for the sick.

The rate of increase of the death rate doubling will help us to determine whether the measures currently in place are helping slow the pandemic.

That is why the experts are using those statistics. But I guess you and Que know more than the pandemic experts, right? FFS, this is pretty basic stuff.

He made a stupid comment and you chose to back him up on THAT nonsense.

Again, apple/tree.

What he said and what you are trying to suggest he said is completely different.

But please go on and keep proving me right.

Also please explain math and statistics to me.

 

[zipman]

What he said and what you are trying to suggest he said is completely different.

But please go on and keep proving me right.

Also please explain math and statistics to me.

It's right in the fucking quote.

I bolded it for you.

Do you want me to use crayons?

 

[zipman]

So, did you read page 37, it says make sure you replace everything you use so the next admin doesn't have to play catch up while in the middle of a crisis. CDC has always had a response guide which was updated in 2006 by G.W.


www.cdc.gov › flu › pandemic-resources › pdf › pandemic-influenza...
PDF

Who controls the funding for replenishing the stockpile?

 

[sygn]

Trump shut down ravel from China and was immediately scorned as an xenophobe.

DeBazio don't worry about the virus, frequent your local restaurants.

Could you give links?

I would also like to hear from the Dems too, if true

 

[sygn]

5. "This is a flu. This is like a flu. ... It's a little like the regular flu that we have flu shots for. And we'll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner." (February 26)

8. "So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 death. Think about that!" (March 9)

Yes, these moronic comments are partially responsible for people (selfish millenials, in particular) not respecting basic social distancing rules.

 

[HisArpy]

Who controls the funding for replenishing the stockpile?

At the time?

The same Democrat controlled Congress that also brought us ObamaCare.

 

[zipman]

At the time?

The same Democrat controlled Congress that also brought us ObamaCare.

The stockpile was diminished AFTER the H1N1 epidemic ended, in 2010.

Republicans have controlled from then until this last election.

Do you EVER get tired of being wrong?

 

[icanhelp1]

The stockpile was diminished AFTER the H1N1 epidemic ended, in 2010.

Republicans have controlled from then until this last election.

Do you EVER get tired of being wrong?

OH! I get it! Obama gets a pass and Trump is responsible for everything, yeah, that's the ticket!

Obama was the president and dropped the ball.

 

[sygn]

Not trying to suck up to Tean Trump,
but this was jaw-dropping:

What's the point of businnesses shutting down and millions sacrificing their livelihoods, when those morons keep spreading the disease?



New Yorkers are STILL gathering in crowds and ignoring social distancing rules

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-Harlem-ignoring-social-distancing-rules.html

https://twistedsifter.com/2020/03/l...rk-to-watch-arrival-of-us-navy-hospital-ship/

 

[zipman]

Not trying to suck up to Tean Trump,
but this was jaw-dropping:

What's the point of businnesses shutting down and millions sacrificing their livelihoods, when those morons keep spreading the disease?



New Yorkers are STILL gathering in crowds and ignoring social distancing rules

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-Harlem-ignoring-social-distancing-rules.html

https://twistedsifter.com/2020/03/l...rk-to-watch-arrival-of-us-navy-hospital-ship/

The point is that these are more isolated incidents and the governor and mayor are doing everything they can to stop people from doing it.

Compare that to Florida where the Governor JUST declared stay at home measures BUT is designating houses of worship to be essential services.

That is far worse than a few people on a street corner.

 

[zipman]

OH! I get it! Obama gets a pass and Trump is responsible for everything, yeah, that's the ticket!

Obama was the president and dropped the ball.

Actually I think Obama does have some responsibility. But Trump has been in office for 3 years and didn't do anything about it either.

Not to mention he didn't follow the Pandemic playbook that his administration was provided which indicated buying up supplies back in January, you know, when he was busy telling everyone it was under control and soon the number of cases would be zero.

How is it we went from Zero deaths to GOALS of 100k-240k and he thinks that is doing a good job?

Are you fucking insane?

 

[icanhelp1]

Actually I think Obama does have some responsibility. But Trump has been in office for 3 years and didn't do anything about it either.

Not to mention he didn't follow the Pandemic playbook that his administration was provided which indicated buying up supplies back in January, you know, when he was busy telling everyone it was under control and soon the number of cases would be zero.

How is it we went from Zero deaths to GOALS of 100k-240k and he thinks that is doing a good job?

Are you fucking insane?

In January there wasn't much to go on. He shut travel down from China based on the information that was available at the time. In the meantime De Blazio was telling his people to mingle and frequent NYC restaurants, funny NYC is the hot spot of the world. N Orleans is next because their Mayor had Mardis Gras, guess what! another hot spot.

What makes you think any president has to follow a book. To not admit that China held back critical info is nuts. Nobody knew that covid was going to be as contagious as it was found to be. The dems were more interested in impeachment than protecting our country. Schiff was intel committee chair and not a single word from intel on the virus.

Now Nancy is putting together a panel to investigate Trump, way to rally the troops, she's the real deplorable.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

OH! I get it! Obama gets a pass and Trump is responsible for everything, yeah, that's the ticket!

Obama was the president and dropped the ball.

The first report I have knowledge of about the lack of equipment came from under George Junior's administration. There were further reports, under Obama, and under Trump.

There is no denying each administration made a conscious decision in regards to the need of fixing the issue. Why Bush didn't, or Obama, or Trump could be due to many reasons. No need to try and list them, since they are really irrelevant, and they are all partially to blame for the situation.

What is relevant is this. Donald Trump knew, and was advised more than 10 weeks ago that there was a respiratory virus loose in the world.

Donald Trump, as the decision maker, chose not to react.

So lets pause for a moment, and look at a couple hypothetical situations.

A: Assume we swap out Donald Trump for George Junior.
What do you all think George Junior would have done, 10 weeks ago when he was advised of that there was a respiratory virus loose in the world?

B: Assume we swap out Donald Trump for Obama.
What do you all think Obama would have done, 10 weeks ago when he was advised of that there was a respiratory virus loose in the world?

C: Assume we swap out Donald Trump for Bill Clinton.
What do you all think Blow Job Bill would have done, 10 weeks ago when he was advised of that there was a respiratory virus loose in the world?

D: Assume we swap out Donald Trump for JFK.
What do you all think JFK would have done, 10 weeks ago when he was advised of that there was a respiratory virus loose in the world?

E: Assume we swap out Donald Trump for Nixon.
What do you all think Tricky Dicky would have done, 10 weeks ago when he was advised of that there was a respiratory virus loose in the world?

See where I am going with this?

While I cannot say for sure what all of the above listed Presidents would have done. I am pretty damn sure none of them would done what Trump has.

So is Trump responsible for this debacle since he made his decision to not react on his "hunch"?

My opinion is yes, and here is my reason why.

The president is the ultimate decider. That person is tasked with making a choice of how to react to a situation based upon the best available information at the time of the decision. I feel following a "I have a hunch this will all be over by April" is not the correct way to plan a course of action in a situation where the potential exists for millions to die, and a countries economy could be wrecked.