That 'booming' economy?

[PrincepsCyberius]

In addition to destroying America's farms, Trump's policies are also causing a recession in American manufacturing (especially when it comes to manufacturing farm equipment like harvesters and tractors) and American trucking.

Destroying America's farms is already having ripple effects that damage other parts of the U.S. economy. And Trump's tariff wars are killing our ability to sell American goods overseas. September marked the worst month for U.S. manufacturing in more than a decade. And if farms and factories have nothing to sell, truckers end up with nothing to transport. It's all connected.

If Democrats actually cared about Farmers in this country, Pelosi would let the USMCA come to a vote. It would pass in an instant and open up all kinds of markets to our farmers.

 

[Articulate_and_Analytical]

In addition to destroying America's farms, Trump's policies are also causing a recession in American manufacturing (especially when it comes to manufacturing farm equipment like harvesters and tractors) and American trucking.

Destroying America's farms is already having ripple effects that damage other parts of the U.S. economy. And Trump's tariff wars are killing our ability to sell American goods overseas. September marked the worst month for U.S. manufacturing in more than a decade. And if farms and factories have nothing to sell, truckers end up with nothing to transport. It's all connected.

More and more truckers are losing their jobs.

Truck drivers' earnings sank in 2019 and hundreds of trucking companies have gone bankrupt.

The federal government's September jobs report said that 4,200 truck drivers lost their jobs in that month alone.

So, much for a BOOMING ECONOMY!!

 

[Leather_Lesbian]

In addition to destroying America's farms, Trump's policies are also causing a recession in American manufacturing (especially when it comes to manufacturing farm equipment like harvesters and tractors) and American trucking.

Destroying America's farms is already having ripple effects that damage other parts of the U.S. economy. And Trump's tariff wars are killing our ability to sell American goods overseas. September marked the worst month for U.S. manufacturing in more than a decade. And if farms and factories have nothing to sell, truckers end up with nothing to transport. It's all connected.

Trump is perhaps the only idiot in human history to LOSE MONEY running a casino!! Trump couldn’t make money running a casino, it’s no surprise that he can’t manage America’s economy!

 

[someoneyouknow]

If Democrats actually cared about Farmers in this country, Pelosi would let the USMCA come to a vote. It would pass in an instant and open up all kinds of markets to our farmers.

If the con art actually cared about farmers in this country he wouldn't have gone on a tirade about NAFTA, pulled us out of several open trade agreements and implemented an easily winnable trade war.

The markets were already in existence. In some cases it took over a decade to develop the contacts and supply chains to allow farmers to deliver their goods across the planet.

In the span of about three months the con artist destroyed all that.

 

[PrincepsCyberius]

If the con art actually cared about farmers in this country he wouldn't have gone on a tirade about NAFTA, pulled us out of several open trade agreements and implemented an easily winnable trade war.

The markets were already in existence. In some cases it took over a decade to develop the contacts and supply chains to allow farmers to deliver their goods across the planet.

In the span of about three months the con artist destroyed all that.

Instead of advancing trade deal, Congress focuses on partisan impeachment process.

Poll: Farmer Support for Donald Trump Jumps to 76 Percent.

 

[magicalmoments]

Why would the congress waste time on developing trade deals that the festering tumor known as the chosen one would use his power to destroy
. Far better to excise the sickness then start to rebuild.
Farmers supporting trump, just shows you what socialist subsidies can achieve.

 

[DawnONight]

For the 22nd time since Donald Trump took office, the number of employed Americans reached a record high last month, climbing 319,000 from August's record 157,878,000 to 158,269,000. At the same time, the number of unemployed Americans set a Trump-era low at 5,769,000.

Those two strong numbers pushed the nation's unemployment rate to 3.5 percent in September -- down two-tenths of a point from last month, and the lowest rate since December 1969....

That produced a labor force participation rate of 63.2 percent, the same as it was in August, and a Trump-era high. The higher this number, the better....

The unemployment rate for Hispanics, 3.9 percent in September, has never been this low. The unemployment rate for blacks remained at the record low of 5.5 percent set in August.

Among the other major worker groups, the unemployment rate for whites declined to 3.2 percent last month. For adult men, the jobless rate was 3.2 percent; adult women, 3.1 percent; teenagers, 12.5 percent; Asians, 2.5 percent.​

S. Jones, Record Number of Employed in September; 3.5% Unemployment Rate Best Since 1969, CNSNews (Oct. 4, 2019) (emphasis added).

 

[magicalmoments]

# 109 above.
And if put all of that down to the policies of the previous administration.
Nothing that the economic ignoramus has done in the last 3 years would have added a single point to those figures.

 

[DawnONight]

# 109 above.
And if put all of that down to the policies of the previous administration.
Nothing that the economic ignoramus has done in the last 3 years would have added a single point to those figures.

Time to wake up from the Barack Obama economy, folks, and admit how many more Americans are prospering from the faster economic growth and tighter labor market after the policy changes of 2017....

We’re long enough into the Trump era to track the differences....

The jobless rate for blacks is 6.2%, which is only 2.9 percentage-points higher than for whites versus a 4.6 percentage-point difference before the start of the 2008 recession. Unemployment has fallen twice as much among blacks as whites since December 2016.

Nearly one million more blacks and two million more Hispanics are employed than when Barack Obama left office, and minorities account for more than half of all new jobs created during the Trump Presidency. Unemployment among black women has hovered near 5% for the last six months, the lowest since 1972, and a mere 3.5% of high school graduates are unemployed....

About 5% of Americans hold more than one job, and this rate has held relatively constant since 2010. Yet there are now 1.3 million fewer Americans working part-time for economic reasons than at the end of the Obama Presidency.

A tighter job market is also pushing up wages....​

A Tale of Two Economies: Trump’s policies are helping workers more than Obama’s did, WSJ (Jul. 4, 2019) (emphasis added).

.

​

 

[BotanyBoy]

If the con art actually cared about farmers in this country he wouldn't have gone on a tirade about NAFTA, pulled us out of several open trade agreements and implemented an easily winnable trade war.

The markets were already in existence. In some cases it took over a decade to develop the contacts and supply chains to allow farmers to deliver their goods across the planet.

In the span of about three months the con artist destroyed all that.

Not all that, it's actually a fairly small segment of the market and only the government farmers who either weren't paying any attention, or most likely didn't want to pay any attention who got hosed.

But keep pretending a handful of farmers = Trumps base...****ssia Russia Russia!!! Reality be damned!!

 

[jaF0]

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation's business economists think President Donald Trump's trade war with China will contribute to a sharp slowdown in economic growth this year and next, raising concerns about a possible recession starting late next year.

The latest survey by a panel of 51 forecasters with the National Association for Business Economics shows they expect growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, to slow to 2.3% this year from 2.9% in 2018. The new forecast marks a downgrade from the 2.6% estimate for 2019 economic growth that the NABE panel had made in June.

For 2020, the forecasters expect GDP growth to fall to 1.8%. They see little likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months but expect the risk to increase by late next year.

Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said the forecasting panel turned more pessimistic over the summer, with 80% of the economists now saying the risks are pointed to the downside.

"The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty and slower global growth are considered key downside risks," Daco said.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2019-10-07/business-economists-foresee-slowdown-in-us-growth

 

[DawnONight]

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation's business economists think President Donald Trump's trade war with China will contribute to a sharp slowdown in economic growth this year and next, raising concerns about a possible recession starting late next year.....

Oh yes, lets listen to the experts.

The most surprising thing about the latest unemployment report isn’t that the rate dropped to the lowest level since December 1969. It’s that unemployment wasn’t supposed to get anywhere near that low under President Trump. At least, not if you believed mainstream Keynesian economists.

The economy created 136,000 jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey of businesses. The separate household survey, which is used to track unemployment, showed that the number of unemployed dropped by 275,000.

Not only did the job market pull 275,000 off the unemployment line last month, it pulled more than 100,000 who had dropped out of the labor force back into the job market.

This is good news, but it continues to confound mainstream economists, who solemnly predicted at the start of Trump’s administration that we faced a “secular stagnation.” Any talk of strong economic growth was a fantasy.

When the economy started to outperform expectations, liberals shrugged it off by claiming that the upturn in growth was all baked in the cake when President Obama was president.

That is false.

We can get a sense of the true impact of Trump’s economic policies by comparing the actual results since he took office to the forecasts made at that time....

https://i2.wp.com/issuesinsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Screen-Shot-2019-10-05-at-11.20.13-AM.png?w=764&ssl=1

https://i1.wp.com/issuesinsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Screen-Shot-2019-10-05-at-11.20.29-AM.png?w=811&ssl=1

GDP growth has exceeded the CBO’s forecast in every quarter starting with Q2 2017. That includes the second quarter of this year, which saw 2% growth where the CBO had projected 1.5%.

As a result, the economy is now $590 billion bigger than it was supposed to be.

The CBO projected that unemployment would never get below 4.4%, and would start rising again this year. Instead, the unemployment rate fell from 4% at the start of the year to 3.5%. The current unemployment rate is now a full percentage point below the CBO’s forecast. That translates into 1.6 million more people employed than the CBO expected.

And, where the CBO had forecast a steady decline in the labor force participation rate – which measures what percentage of the working-age population is either employed or looking for a job – it has been climbing. The CBO projected it would go from 62.9% at the end of 2016 to 62.7% in the last quarter.

The actual figure for September was 63.1%.

Oh, and inflation has been running slightly lower than expected – which wasn’t supposed to happen either....

So what changed after the CBO issued its forecast? Trump reversed as many Obama-era policies as he could, as fast as he could. He halted pending regulations, rolled back more than $30 billion of existing rules, brought corporate tax rates in line with our competitors, fixed the worst elements of Dodd-Frank....​

J. Merline, Trump’s Economy: 1.6 Million More Jobs Than The ‘Experts’ Predicted, Issues & Insights (Oct. 5, 2019) (emphasis added).

 

[someoneyouknow]

It's official. With the lowest unemployment rate in decades and this "booming" economy, the con artist has created a $1 trillion yearly deficit.

The King of Debt strikes again. Wonder who he's going to blame this time?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-ran-deficit-just-under-1-trillion-in-2019-cbo-estimates-2019-10-07?mod=mw_theo_homepage

 

[BotanyBoy]

It's official. With the lowest unemployment rate in decades and this "booming" economy, the con artist has created a $1 trillion yearly deficit.

The King of Debt strikes again. Wonder who he's going to blame this time?

Curiously enough "conservatives" like SYK just happen to only have a problem with that when (R)'z do it.

When (D)'z do it and promise much much more and threaten to nationalize the economy to do it? No biggie...that's progress!!!


Wonder why that is?? Must be because they are soooo "conservative".....

 

[icanhelp1]

It's official. With the lowest unemployment rate in decades and this "booming" economy, the con artist has created a $1 trillion yearly deficit.

The King of Debt strikes again. Wonder who he's going to blame this time?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-ran-deficit-just-under-1-trillion-in-2019-cbo-estimates-2019-10-07?mod=mw_theo_homepage

Budget bills won't pass unless you carry over the threshold all the excess baggage the Dems want. If you don't spoon feed the Dems the only option left is a government shutdown. Nancy and her band of merry socialist would love that. Hypocrites, blame Trump for keeping the government open. Damned if you do damned if you don't!

 

[icanhelp1]

oxymoron= Dems Fiscally Responsible

 

[magicalmoments]

So... When the recession hits, is that going to be obama's fault or entirely down to trump?

 

[icanhelp1]

Economics
JPMorgan, BofA Detect Hints of a U.S. Recession Looming in 2019
By Jeanna Smialek
December 10, 2018, 12:01 AM EST
Bank economists dust off their ‘how to spot a downturn’ guides
What they found: Reasons for vigilance, but no impending doom

GOLDMAN SACHS GP
197.37USD-3.03-1.51%
Wall Street’s biggest banks are scouring U.S. data for signals of an impending recession. On balance, they’ve been finding that a 2019 downturn still isn’t likely -- though it’s becoming slightly more so.

The current expansion is eight months away from becoming the longest in postwar history. Most indicators remain solid enough to suggest it’ll get there. But the sell-off in stocks and an inversion in part of the bond yield curve has analysts parsing the tea leaves for anything that points to a contraction in 2019.

Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS Group AG and Bank of America Corp. are among those who’ve joined the hunt in their recent research notes.


JPMorgan sees a 35 percent chance of a recession next year, close to the highest probability in the current cycle, and up from 16 percent in March. Globally, UBS studied 40 countries over about 40 years and found the U.S. to be among those currently behaving in a way inconsistent with prior peaks.

So if a downturn is creeping into the realm of possibility, it’s hardly the base-case scenario. The alarm bells that usually ring when a recession is imminent are doing a muted job of signaling one. Several indicators are slowing down, but economic data have yet to fall off a cliff.

Alarm Bell 1: Jobs Data
Initial jobless claims are among the five most relevant indicators of a coming slump, according to Bank of America economists. “In the last seven recessions, the 6-month growth rate of initial claims has, on average, jumped double digits heading into the recession,” they wrote.

Claims are heading slightly higher on a weekly basis of late, data published Thursday confirmed, but they’ve been at extraordinarily low levels and their recent pop has been relatively small.

Claims have moved up slightly, but not dramatically
Friday’s November jobs report also showed that job gains had slowed slightly. Still, unemployment is very low, wage growth is finally above 3 percent, and the participation rate is stable. “We can’t ignore the pickup in claims, but I don’t think it’s a decisive enough shift to conclude that the labor market is slowing in a troubling fashion,” said Michelle Meyer at Bank of America.

Bank of America’s other top recession signals are auto sales, industrial production, the Philadelphia Fed index, and aggregate hours worked. Some of those are weakening, but none are falling off a cliff. Meyer said her team’s market-based recession indicator shows a 20 to 30 percent probability of a 2019 downturn, while their gauge based on economic data puts the chance at less than 10 percent over the next 6 months.

Alarm Bell 2: Business Surveys
Business sentiment gauges have softened recently, and that’s one reason for the increase in JP Morgan’s recession-predicting index, which is “getting close to the highest levels of the expansion so far,” analyst Jesse Edgerton says. The cycle peak came in 2016 when growth and markets wavered.

“The risks are drifting toward the economy being softer,” Edgerton says, though he adds that surveys aren’t uniformly weak, and his team still isn’t predicting a 2019 recession. He’ll be focused on high-frequency data, including the regional Fed business reports, for an up-to-date picture of activity.

ISM manufacturing index ticked back up in November
Alarm Bell 3: Yield Curve
Much ink has been spilled about the recession-predicting magic of a yield curve inversion -- a situation in which rates on short-dated debt securities move above those on longer-maturity bonds. The closely-monitored gap between 2-year and 10-year yields has been narrowing, and a less fashionable portion of the yield curve has already inverted.

When the yield curve flips, a downturn usually follows. “We hardly have any empirical regularity that’s this regular,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in a November interview.

That said, Fed officials so far don’t sound overly concerned about the curve. They’re monitoring it, but they aren’t willing to focus on it exclusively so long as real economic data hold up.

There’s a reason for their reticence. Inversions are a “flawed crystal ball,” UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele wrote in a Dec. 5 note. While a flip in the 10-year and 2-year curve preceded each of the past seven recessions, the lag was longer than 24 months on the last two occasions.

The Summary Measure
One of the widest measures of what economists expect, the Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, shows that they’re starting to sour on the economy’s prospects four quarters from now. But their pessimism might be too remote to mean much.


The Survey puts the odds that economy will be shrinking in a year’s time at 23 percent. That’s the highest level since 2008 -- but it still implies a recession probability of less than 20 percent, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis based on the Survey’s track record. Forecasts are pretty inaccurate that far out, and respondents put a low probability on a recession within the next couple of quarters.

That “supports our view that a 2019 recession is unlikely,” economists Daan Struyven and David Mericle conclude. The wisdom of crowds can work, they say, “but primarily at relatively short horizons.”

In the end, markets and hard data are sending different signals right now. And most economists are sticking with the latter -- along with survey numbers -- until a more decisive shift becomes obvious.

“The incoming data continues to be good,” Deutsche Bank’s Torsten Slok wrote in a Dec. 6 note. “Where is this recession the market is so worried about?”

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[KeithD]

oxymoron= Dems Fiscally Responsible

You know, this is really, really stupid, because you haven't bothered to check historical facts at all. What a dope you are.

 

[icanhelp1]

You know, this is really, really stupid, because you haven't bothered to check historical facts at all. What a dope you are.

OBAMA=10 TRILLION MORE
IN DEBT

 

[jaF0]

You know, this is really, really stupid, because you haven't bothered to check historical facts at all. What a dope you are.

Hasn't bothered to check the Forum Guidelines either:

"3. Do not upload copyrighted images or post articles in their entirety. Fair use laws allow some posting of copyrighted material, such as excerpts from articles and screen captures from movies, under certain circumstances. Please do a Google search under "Fair Use" if you want to understand this issue better. Also, out of respect for other users, please limit your excerpts to less than 5 paragraphs."

http://www.literotica.com/support/forum_rules.shtml

But then again, 'Rumpies don't need no rules, do they?

 

[icanhelp1]

Hasn't bothered to check the Forum Guidelines either:

"3. Do not upload copyrighted images or post articles in their entirety. Fair use laws allow some posting of copyrighted material, such as excerpts from articles and screen captures from movies, under certain circumstances. Please do a Google search under "Fair Use" if you want to understand this issue better. Also, out of respect for other users, please limit your excerpts to less than 5 paragraphs."

http://www.literotica.com/support/forum_rules.shtml

But then again, 'Rumpies don't need no rules, do they?

So when JACKLOUIS post pages on top of pages, article after article without breaks and that’s OK? You guys railroad DawnODay and now me for posting an opinion piece on recession. The left does whatever they want but if you lean right you’re scrutinize.

 

[jaF0]

Swing and a miss, steeerike two.

 

[DawnONight]

Economist and author Stephen Moore highlighted a new study that says the middle class is getting richer, faster for President Trump than it did for recent presidents....

'In the entire eight years that Obama was president, incomes only budged up about $1,000, so in one-third of the time, Trump has increased income by four times as much,' Moore said. 'We now have a median income of 65,000 dollars.'

As posted on Twitter with a link to his Wall Street Journal opinion, Moore said 'the middle class is not only shrinking, it's getting richer'....​

J. Barmash, Middle class IS getting richer: Family incomes increased $4,100 since Trump took office and economist predicts it will make him tough to beat in 2020, Daily Mail (Oct. 3, 2019).

Wait... the Middle Class is shrinking?!

The middle class, it turns out, is shrinking. But not because they are falling into poverty, as some might have you believe. Rather, it is shrinking because more people are “moving on up,” ascending into a higher income bracket — and living the American dream.​

C. Follett, Middle Class Shrinking… As Households Become Richer, Cato Institute (Sep. 18, 2019).

 

[PrincepsCyberius]

If the con art actually cared about farmers in this country he wouldn't have gone on a tirade about NAFTA, pulled us out of several open trade agreements and implemented an easily winnable trade war.

The markets were already in existence. In some cases it took over a decade to develop the contacts and supply chains to allow farmers to deliver their goods across the planet.

In the span of about three months the con artist destroyed all that.

Instead of advancing trade deal, Congress focuses on partisan impeachment process.

Poll: Farmer Support for Donald Trump Jumps to 76 Percent.

Why would the congress waste time on developing trade deals that the festering tumor known as the chosen one would use his power to destroy
. Far better to excise the sickness then start to rebuild.
Farmers supporting trump, just shows you what socialist subsidies can achieve.

Trump Signs Trade Deal With Japan, Helping Farmers.