The 2016 Presidential Election Results Thread

[pollynova]

YAY! Congratulations Mr. Trump!

 

[bobb_sledd]

If I NEVER hear the name Clinton again it will be too soon!

 

[Hard_Rom]

Clinton

 

[silver gurl]

Bye Rory

 

[Super-Surprise]

Very good speech DJT!

 

[Porkwarrior]

A sad day for America and the world.

Congratulations to you Trump supporters. I hope none of us come to regret this too badly.

Pollsters are going to have to have a good look at their methodologies.

I mean this from the bottom of my heart. Fuck you.


Anywho, I still can't believe this has been allowed to happen. His first 6 weeks will set the tone of his first term, but I'll be the first Canadian in line to tear up NAFTA, support Newt Gingrich's efforts to bolster against Putin's Russia,

 

[Xerxes82]

At least it's over. I hate the result, I'm embarrassed to be an American, but at least it's over.

I honestly don't have much for words at the moment. I knew it was coming, and told everyone who would listen, but now that it's actually here, I find myself introspective. We just elected a reality tv star, whose biggest success in business was a titanic loss that inured him against taxes for two decades, to be leader of the free world. I'd make a crack about Kanye 2020, but it's no longer outside the realm of possibility. Think we can get Taylor Swift to run? Or would we be better off with President Beyonce? Part of me thinks Beyonce would be the better choice, she can both sing and dance.

Obviously tomorrow is just another day, and outside of the clampdown on every major social cause in the conservative reality, not much is likely to change overly much (just watch, the first three bills before the next Congress will be abortion restrictions, banning gay marriage if not homosexuality outright, and mandating gender assignment by physical sex at birth for all purposes under punishment of jail, probably in that order), but I genuinely feel, for the first time in my life, that the future is without hope. We have lost our way. Maybe we'll find it again. Maybe even under President Trump. But I doubt it.

 

[Porkwarrior]

YAY! Congratulations Mr. Trump!

I knew he would carry Wisconsin...but I am surprised, truly. I was 49/49 Trump would win.
There's a message with this vote, you can only come to the well so many times before the broken promises of professional politicians bite them in ass. Atleast this time there won't be a guillotine in the town square.

 

[BotanyBoy]

At least it's over. I hate the result, I'm embarrassed to be an American, but at least it's over.

I honestly don't have much for words at the moment. I knew it was coming, and told everyone who would listen, but now that it's actually here, I find myself introspective. We just elected a reality tv star, whose biggest success in business was a titanic loss that inured him against taxes for two decades, to be leader of the free world. I'd make a crack about Kanye 2020, but it's no longer outside the realm of possibility. Think we can get Taylor Swift to run? Or would we be better off with President Beyonce? Part of me thinks Beyonce would be the better choice, she can both sing and dance.

Obviously tomorrow is just another day, and outside of the clampdown on every major social cause in the conservative reality, not much is likely to change overly much (just watch, the first three bills before the next Congress will be abortion restrictions, banning gay marriage if not homosexuality outright, and mandating gender assignment by physical sex at birth for all purposes under punishment of jail, probably in that order), but I genuinely feel, for the first time in my life, that the future is without hope. We have lost our way. Maybe we'll find it again. Maybe even under President Trump. But I doubt it.

You could just move to a lefty country instead of trying to ruin this one.

 

[Bookishleigh]

You could just move to a lefty country instead of trying to ruin this one.

If it were that easy some of us would. But it's not like "lefty countries are going to be dying to let Americans in after we just elected someone they see as a threat. There is also a lengthy process. Plus, there is the matter of family and assets here. It could easily take at least four years to get everything lined up.

Easier to just listen to you gloat, endure "the Donald" for his four years, and wait until we can get someone who can be trusted to run their own twitter account let alone a country.

 

[BotanyBoy]

If it were that easy some of us would. But it's not like "lefty countries are going to be dying to let Americans in after we just elected someone they see as a threat.

They never have been huge on immigrants.

There is also a lengthy process.

Plus, there is the matter of family and assets here. It could easily take at least four years to get everything lined up.

Sounds like they take immigration seriously....clearly they are all racist xenophobes.

Why do you want to move to such hateful places?

Easier to just listen to you gloat, endure "the Donald" for his four years, and wait until we can get someone who can be trusted to run their own twitter account let alone a country.

Maybe!

In the meantime I'm going to LOL at all the people getting shut out by all these progressive wonderlands they hold in such high esteem.

Just a shame they won't be going anywhere.

 

[Porkwarrior]

If it were that easy some of us would. But it's not like "lefty countries are going to be dying to let Americans in after we just elected someone they see as a threat. There is also a lengthy process. Plus, there is the matter of family and assets here. It could easily take at least four years to get everything lined up.

You mean you can't just show up at the CAN/US border and realize it's not really undefended, then declare "Yeah, but in Cape Breton CNN said I can have an acre of land and a mule!"

(It's actually harder to emigrate to Canuckistan than the US, unless you have $500k in cash)

 

[Porkwarrior]

And with 50% of Cali's vote in...Trump is leading in the popular vote as well.
Not that the message will be heard tomorrow, but soon. For those willing to listen.

 

[Porkwarrior]

Wait, wasn't it the Trompers that weren't supposed to stamina and run away?

 

[Wrong Element]

Poring things over...

1. This is just never going to make sense: apparently, about 1/4 of the people who voted for Trump believe he isn't qualified to be president. 1/3 said he can't be trusted. Granted, Clinton has issues on the trustworthiness thing too, but how do you vote for someone for any office that you believe isn't qualified?

2. One poll I saw gave Trump a 10-point advantage among people who decided within the last month, while Clinton won among those who had their minds made up earlier. What were the big events in the last month (the pussy tape was farther back than that)? The third debate (which Clinton won), and the Comey letter.

3. Does Clinton win without the Comey letter? Trump won four swing states worth 75 electoral votes by a combined total of around 250,000 votes -- a percentage point or a fraction of a point. It's certainly a fair question to ask.

4. It's clear now that turnout was down nationally, and the lower the turnout, the worse it almost always is for Democrats. When you consider all the close races, there's little question in my mind that Clinton would have won with the 2008 or even the 2012 turnout. Here's an amazing stat: Mitt Romney got as many votes in Wisconsin in 2012 losing it by 7 points as Trump got on Tuesday. Granted, some of those "missing Dems" went third party instead, but a lot stayed home.

5. Or were forced home. I predicted Wisconsin's new voting laws would have a huge effect on turnout, and they did. Score one for Scott "Banana Republic" Walker and John "Ain't no more racism!" Roberts.

6. It's hard to gauge what sort of effect the Johnson vote had on the race because we really don't know where he was getting all his extra voters (compared with 2012) from (though you can infer that a lot of people came home to Trump in the end -- I had Johnson getting 4.6% of the vote, lower than he was polling, but he was even worse than that). But even if you concede that a lot of Stein's voters would have just stayed home rather than vote for Hillary had Stein not run, it looks like she probably cost Clinton Michigan at least (she got 50,000 votes, Clinton looks to have lost by about 15,000).

7. Bottom line is, as I've said before, you need luck to win the presidency. It looks like the five closest races were all won by Trump (New Hampshire will probably need a recount). The Democrats have won the popular vote in six of the last seven elections (don't kid yourselves; Clinton will have the lead in an hour or so and it will only expand over the next few days), but only have four presidential terms to show for it.

8. For all of Trump's whining about the "rigged system," he got two enormous breaks in the end: the Comey letter which was apparently prompted by fear of FBI leaks (while no one at the supposedly fatally politicized IRS leaked Trump's tax returns), and the very existence of the Electoral College. That's where the parallels to Brexit break down, since Brexit actually got more votes than "Remain."

That probably exhausts everything I have to say on this.

 

[BotanyBoy]

Poring things over...

1. This is just never going to make sense

LOL

5. Or were forced home.

They weren't forced.

Nobody put armed guards outside (D)'s homes preventing them from voting.

 

[contrifan32]

Poring things over...

1. This is just never going to make sense: apparently, about 1/4 of the people who voted for Trump believe he isn't qualified to be president. 1/3 said he can't be trusted. Granted, Clinton has issues on the trustworthiness thing too, but how do you vote for someone for any office that you believe isn't qualified?

2. One poll I saw gave Trump a 10-point advantage among people who decided within the last month, while Clinton won among those who had their minds made up earlier. What were the big events in the last month (the pussy tape was farther back than that)? The third debate (which Clinton won), and the Comey letter.

3. Does Clinton win without the Comey letter? Trump won four swing states worth 75 electoral votes by a combined total of around 250,000 votes -- a percentage point or a fraction of a point. It's certainly a fair question to ask.

4. It's clear now that turnout was down nationally, and the lower the turnout, the worse it almost always is for Democrats. When you consider all the close races, there's little question in my mind that Clinton would have won with the 2008 or even the 2012 turnout. Here's an amazing stat: Mitt Romney got as many votes in Wisconsin in 2012 losing it by 7 points as Trump got on Tuesday. Granted, some of those "missing Dems" went third party instead, but a lot stayed home.

5. Or were forced home. I predicted Wisconsin's new voting laws would have a huge effect on turnout, and they did. Score one for Scott "Banana Republic" Walker and John "Ain't no more racism!" Roberts.

6. It's hard to gauge what sort of effect the Johnson vote had on the race because we really don't know where he was getting all his extra voters (compared with 2012) from (though you can infer that a lot of people came home to Trump in the end -- I had Johnson getting 4.6% of the vote, lower than he was polling, but he was even worse than that). But even if you concede that a lot of Stein's voters would have just stayed home rather than vote for Hillary had Stein not run, it looks like she probably cost Clinton Michigan at least (she got 50,000 votes, Clinton looks to have lost by about 15,000).

7. Bottom line is, as I've said before, you need luck to win the presidency. It looks like the five closest races were all won by Trump (New Hampshire will probably need a recount). The Democrats have won the popular vote in six of the last seven elections (don't kid yourselves; Clinton will have the lead in an hour or so and it will only expand over the next few days), but only have four presidential terms to show for it.

8. For all of Trump's whining about the "rigged system," he got two enormous breaks in the end: the Comey letter which was apparently prompted by fear of FBI leaks (while no one at the supposedly fatally politicized IRS leaked Trump's tax returns), and the very existence of the Electoral College. That's where the parallels to Brexit break down, since Brexit actually got more votes than "Remain."

That probably exhausts everything I have to say on this.

Psssst... allow me to point something out. There are still a lot of old white dudes and dudets.

 

[NeverEndingMe]

Try to keep this thread clear until 11/8.

Or don't.

house + senate + POTUS = Fuck you obama

 

[Magnetron]

Poring things over...

7. Bottom line is, as I've said before, you need luck to win the presidency. It looks like the five closest races were all won by Trump (New Hampshire will probably need a recount). The Democrats have won the popular vote in six of the last seven elections (don't kid yourselves; Clinton will have the lead in an hour or so and it will only expand over the next few days), but only have four presidential terms to show for it.

8. For all of Trump's whining about the "rigged system," he got two enormous breaks in the end: the Comey letter which was apparently prompted by fear of FBI leaks (while no one at the supposedly fatally politicized IRS leaked Trump's tax returns), and the very existence of the Electoral College. That's where the parallels to Brexit break down, since Brexit actually got more votes than "Remain."

His 3rd break was that Clinton focused more why voters shouldn't vote for him rather than why they should vote for her.

 

[JohnnySavage]

Pray that Clinton is not elected.

Jesus Horatio Christ man, put some pants on!

 

[Wrong Element]

His 3rd break was that Clinton focused more why voters shouldn't vote for him rather than why they should vote for her.

We could go over Clinton's strategy, although it was apparently spawned by the same polling that literally everyone had, including Trump's campaign (reporters with the campaign said that no one was trying to spin them yesterday and that their staffers were looking at the same numbers).

She wasn't a good candidate, but I can see why people felt she didn't have to be, considering.


One other thing I forgot to mention in the long post: A week or so ago, Nate Silver pointed out that should Clinton's popular vote lead get down to 2 percent or so, the chances of her losing the Electoral College would begin to go up by a lot. When they ran their simulations with a Clinton 1-point popular vote win, she would lose the Electoral College about half the time.


The worst case scenario for her is exactly what happened: bigger margins than usual in places she didn't need them (especially California), and better margins than Obama in several red states that are still too far gone for a Dem to actually win (Texas, Georgia, Arizona). Clinton got 500,000 more votes in Texas than Obama did last time. If those 500,000 had been in the Great Lakes states instead, she'd be the president-elect right now with the same overall vote totals.

 

[JohnnySavage]

What's most bewildering to me, is that the people who will be hurt most by Trump's policies are the very ones that are giddy over his win.

 

[VaticanAssassin]

Well fuck. Guess I have to plan a trip Vegas now.

Hmmm... to drive or fly. Last 2 time I drove I received a 300+ speeding ticket. That would eat in to the profits.

 

[Wrong Element]

Just a wild-ass prediction, coming close to 12 years to the day Barack Obama was elected to the Senate in the midst of a narrow presidential defeat:


Kamala Harris instantly becomes a major national figure.

 

[Disgustipated]

What's most bewildering to me, is that the people who will be hurt most by Trump's policies are the very ones that are giddy over his win.

Yep. and those who would actually benefit won't see any of those benefits, if at all until Drumpf is gone.