It still looks like a "wave election" for the Dems. Even after Comeygate, Nate Silver is giving Clinton 75.4% odds to beat Trump -- and the Democrats 63.8% to take the Senate. (Systematic gerrymandering in the red states will keep the House Republican for now.)
It's far too soon to say the Republican Party is dying. Clearly a national party that still controls more than half of America's state legislatures and governorships is not going the way of the Whigs this election cycle or next -- provided it can hang together. But just as the party's national voting-share is slipping, the Republican coalition is fracturing. Pundits foresee a power struggle between at least three factions: the old-guard Establishment, the Bushes and so on; the economic-libertarian ideologues led by Paul Ryan; and the increasingly predominant Tea Party/Trumper/alt-right/paleocon wing. The religious right and the neocon warhawks will also have their hands in. Who will win? Or will one of these break off and go third party?
It's far too soon to say the Republican Party is dying. Clearly a national party that still controls more than half of America's state legislatures and governorships is not going the way of the Whigs this election cycle or next -- provided it can hang together. But just as the party's national voting-share is slipping, the Republican coalition is fracturing. Pundits foresee a power struggle between at least three factions: the old-guard Establishment, the Bushes and so on; the economic-libertarian ideologues led by Paul Ryan; and the increasingly predominant Tea Party/Trumper/alt-right/paleocon wing. The religious right and the neocon warhawks will also have their hands in. Who will win? Or will one of these break off and go third party?