Here's How Donald Trump Could Become President

[Liar]

Since you like RCP poll averages so much, 4est, check them out this morning:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Do my eyes deceive me, or does that look like the last seven national polls all show Trump ahead?

Yeah, I know, it's July.

Uh. Last four.

But no matter. He leads the less-disliked race thanks to convention bump. Let's see if the DNC shits the bed or manage to stay on message through theirs. It's been a shaky pre-show.

 

[toubab]

Even Nate Silver says Trump would win if the election were held today:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757558402667188224

"TRUMP now leads in 538's now-cast, our estimate of what would happen in an election today. http://53eig.ht/2aq4w6p"

Trump 57.5% chance of winning

Clinton 42.5% chance of winning



Now that surprised me.

 

[toubab]

Uh. Last four.

But no matter. He leads the less-disliked race thanks to convention bump. Let's see if the DNC shits the bed or manage to stay on message through theirs. It's been a shaky pre-show.

Looks like seven to me, going back to Thursday.

 

[toubab]

Poll: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump tied going into Democratic convention


From CBS this morning, since you care about polls so much.

RCP says Trump +1 for the CBS poll. Both of their polls, actually.

 

[xbb]

Even Nate Silver says Trump would win if the election were held today:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757558402667188224

"TRUMP now leads in 538's now-cast, our estimate of what would happen in an election today. http://53eig.ht/2aq4w6p"

Trump 57.5% chance of winning

Clinton 42.5% chance of winning



Now that surprised me.

surprised is right

 

[Liar]

Looks like seven to me, going back to Thursday.

Wierd. Anyway yes. Trump got bump. About as big as customary, it seems. I would have thought he'd get a below par result seeing the convention was such a mess, but I guess entertaining mess is what populism is all about.

Not sure what this week will bring, but I have a feeling I'm gonna be bored. At least comparatively. Not sure if that's a good or bad thing for the Dems.

 

[toubab]

Wierd. Anyway yes. Trump got bump. About as big as customary, it seems. I would have thought he'd get a below par result seeing the convention was such a mess, but I guess entertaining mess is what populism is all about.

Not sure what this week will bring, but I have a feeling I'm gonna be bored. At least comparatively. Not sure if that's a good or bad thing for the Dems.

If things follow the historical norm Hillary will also get a bounce. About thirty days after the second convention things settle down and the picture usually becomes fairly clear.

 

[Liar]

If things follow the historical norm Hillary will also get a bounce. About thirty days after the second convention things settle down and the picture usually becomes fairly clear.

Yep.That's why I said in some other thread that I'm gonna wait to care about polls until the looming disaster that is the Rio Olympics is over and done with.

 

[toubab]

Yep.That's why I said in some other thread that I'm gonna wait to care about polls until the looming disaster that is the Rio Olympics is over and done with.

I find the polls fascinating. The presidential contest is like a horse race in slow motion to me. I like knowing who has the apparent lead at various points in the race. I've bet on many a real horse in my life that has shown early speed and lost, but I sure do like watching the race.

 

[Hard_Rom]

The tension is brutal. Bring on November. Whether civilization ends that day or just continues it's slow slide into oblivion.

 

[Sean Renaud]

I find the polls fascinating. The presidential contest is like a horse race in slow motion to me. I like knowing who has the apparent lead at various points in the race. I've bet on many a real horse in my life that has shown early speed and lost, but I sure do like watching the race.

Agreed.

I find the polls interesting as well because after having seen all the work that Nate Silver does on a great many things it seems obvious that polls do matter. The whole concept that they don't is just sour grapes and that means looking into what they mean at various stages and trends can yield actual data. In this case I'm sure that in the hypothetical (or reality depending on if anything else pops up at the DNC if your politician doesn't get a convention boost that's probably like taking a nail gun to a coffin just to make sure the bastard stays down.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Since you like RCP poll averages so much, 4est, check them out this morning:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Do my eyes deceive me, or does that look like the last seven national polls all show Trump ahead?

Yeah, I know, it's July.

National polls are meaningless because it's not a national election.

He's correct and she is still ahead in all but maybe one of the key swing states.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Yeah, right. I can't imagine why all these fools are spending so much time, effort, and money on them.

Because this is the time of the election cycle when they make their money.

Polls make news, so the press pays for polls.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Even Nate Silver says Trump would win if the election were held today:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757558402667188224

"TRUMP now leads in 538's now-cast, our estimate of what would happen in an election today. http://53eig.ht/2aq4w6p"

Trump 57.5% chance of winning

Clinton 42.5% chance of winning



Now that surprised me.

The election is not today and following Nate from the Hot Air platform, is long-range forecast is still showing that crooked Hillary will still win.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

If things follow the historical norm Hillary will also get a bounce. About thirty days after the second convention things settle down and the picture usually becomes fairly clear.

But DAMN! those July polls are important!

 

[toubab]

He's correct and she is still ahead in all but maybe one of the key swing states.

Not according to Nate Silver. He has Trump at 285 electoral college votes at present, last I checked.

 

[toubab]

The election is not today and following Nate from the Hot Air platform, is long-range forecast is still showing that crooked Hillary will still win.

Everybody knows the election is not today.

 

[toubab]

But DAMN! those July polls are important!

Wait and see the panic by Democrats if Hillary doesn't get a bounce out of her convention. She probably will, but if she doesn't shit will hit the fan.

 

[Sean]

Wait and see the panic by Democrats if Hillary doesn't get a bounce out of her convention. She probably will, but if she doesn't shit will hit the fan.

Actually, no-one is predicting a bounce from either the RNC or Dem conventions. For lots of reasons, but primarily because both nominees already have 100% name recognition.

 

[toubab]

Actually, no-one is predicting a bounce from either the RNC or Dem conventions. For lots of reasons, but primarily because both nominees already have 100% name recognition.

Trump already has a bounce. At least five points, most are calling it six.

 

[toubab]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emmaloop/s...trump-takes-th?utm_term=.vyvzweBLG#.ntO2BP9bX

"Some Democratic Delegates Are “Terrified” After Trump Takes The Lead In Polls"

"With two polls released Monday showing Trump ahead of Clinton, attendees of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia shared their thoughts on Trump’s “post-convention bump.”"


A little panic setting in early, it appears.

 

[Adre]

Russia wants Donald for C-in-C. 4 star General Allen wants Hillary. Who do you trust?

 

[xbb]

Russia wants Donald for C-in-C. 4 star General Allen wants Hillary. Who do you trust?

link?


(btw, I thought all was AWESOME with Russia? ExCuntClinton gave em the RESET button and you "people" IN DEPENDS ridiculed Romney in 12)

 

[Adre]

link?

No link needed. Original thought. Unlike AJ, I don't need American Thinker to tell me things.

 

[xbb]

No link needed. Original thought. Unlike AJ, I don't need American Thinker to tell me things.

Ok

And COMMIEZ and NAZIs endorse ExCuntCLinton for COTUS