Well, I've been following this shit closely since the seventies, and very closely since the eighties, so if I don't understand it by now I probably never will.
Here's How Donald Trump Could Become President
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Well, I've been following this shit closely since the seventies, and very closely since the eighties, so if I don't understand it by now I probably never will.
4est_4est_Gump
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Well, I've been following this shit closely since the seventies, and very closely since the eighties, so if I don't understand it by now I probably never will.
I think that everyone walking through a supermarket is more influenced by the tabloids than they are by July polling.
You have to go out of your way to study polls, but you cannot help but study the pols while waiting in line.
4est_4est_Gump
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Well, I've been following this shit closely since the seventies, and very closely since the eighties, so if I don't understand it by now I probably never will.
So, like me, you have a degree which required a lot of statistical analysis?
Believe me, if this bounce increases for Trump, and it should, and if Hillary doesn't get a similar bounce out of her convention, which she probably will, but if she doesn't, she and the Democrats will shit their pants in fear. There will be panic. Even though it's July.
4est_4est_Gump
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I already stated why I believe there will be little or no bounce.
I listened to former pollster Scott Rasmussen...
I listened to former pollster Scott Rasmussen...
I have a lot of observational analysis. It's amazing how the same things keep happening over and over again. Different players, same play.
I already stated why I believe there will be little or no bounce.
I listened to former pollster Scott Rasmussen...
Watch the USC/LA Times daily poll.
4est_4est_Gump
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You need to start factoring in more Human Action...
No past statistical example, or model, based on past outcomes can correctly gage the mood of the collective because it cannot factor in individual decisions.
No past statistical example, or model, based on past outcomes can correctly gage the mood of the collective because it cannot factor in individual decisions.
4est_4est_Gump
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Another Lloyd Marcus pull-quote:
"Back home in Florida, I experienced that same Trump-mania in Irv, my white handyman. Irv is a low-info voter who worships Obama. Obama gave Irv a free phone. Irv believes Obama is committed to confiscating wealth from selfish evil rich people to take care of poor welfare recipients like his mom and sister. So you can imagine how shocked I was when Irv expressed his excitement about Trump becoming president. Irv said, “Trump is gonna clean this mess up!” This tells me that Trump has a remarkable connection with folks in both parties."
"Back home in Florida, I experienced that same Trump-mania in Irv, my white handyman. Irv is a low-info voter who worships Obama. Obama gave Irv a free phone. Irv believes Obama is committed to confiscating wealth from selfish evil rich people to take care of poor welfare recipients like his mom and sister. So you can imagine how shocked I was when Irv expressed his excitement about Trump becoming president. Irv said, “Trump is gonna clean this mess up!” This tells me that Trump has a remarkable connection with folks in both parties."
RobDownSouth
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How did "unskewed polls" work for you in 2012?
Yup, those "push polls" from Breitbart and Fox really help push the numbers to where you want them to be.
4est_4est_Gump
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Busybody actually just made a very good point.
The Democrats are now claiming that the Russians hacked the DNC and now are leaking the contents to hurt the Democrats and to help Donald Trump kick ass...
And here it comes,
But we're supposed to believe that there is no way that they are not in possession of Hillary's emails just in case she wins? Or maybe they're keeping their powder dry for an October Surprise?
The Democrats are now claiming that the Russians hacked the DNC and now are leaking the contents to hurt the Democrats and to help Donald Trump kick ass...
And here it comes,
But we're supposed to believe that there is no way that they are not in possession of Hillary's emails just in case she wins? Or maybe they're keeping their powder dry for an October Surprise?
IrezumiKiss
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Gimp and touby peni jousting over who's the better wannabe poll/stat fortune teller...
http://www.sherv.net/cm/emo/laughing/roflmao.gif
http://www.sherv.net/cm/emo/laughing/roflmao.gif
Eeyore, you haven't been paying attention or you'd realize I have not even pretended to predict who is going to win this election. I've said I think the odds are in Hillary's favor. They are. But odds can change. And often do. That's why I'm paying attention to polling. Even in July.
Sorry, wannabe...
I only peni joust with female bits.
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Christobal
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Are you honestly going to say that doesn't happen on the democratic side?
Both sides have been doing it for at least the last ten years.
Hey I even wonder how many people here even know what a push poll is about. Do you like the candidate (insert name here) that supports puppies and free money or the candidate (insert name here) that want to take away your social security and starve old people to death.
My goodness. How would anyone answer that.
Really folks. Stop answering polls of all kinds. They are set up to get the answers THEY want.
4est_4est_Gump
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Strong evidence of a Trump bounce
http://www.kcci.com/politics/trump-bounces-into-the-lead/40867076
"Trump bounces into the lead"
"Trump's favorability also rising"
"Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.
There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.
The new findings mark Trump's best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein."
http://www.kcci.com/politics/trump-bounces-into-the-lead/40867076
"Trump bounces into the lead"
"Trump's favorability also rising"
"Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.
There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.
The new findings mark Trump's best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein."
Since you like RCP poll averages so much, 4est, check them out this morning:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Do my eyes deceive me, or does that look like the last seven national polls all show Trump ahead?
Yeah, I know, it's July.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Do my eyes deceive me, or does that look like the last seven national polls all show Trump ahead?
Yeah, I know, it's July.
JohnnySavage
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National polls are meaningless because it's not a national election.
Yeah, right. I can't imagine why all these fools are spending so much time, effort, and money on them.
Yeah, right. I can't imagine why all these fools are spending so much time, effort, and money on them.
while true
its a trend of sorts and people are trend followers and front runners
Adre
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Since you like RCP poll averages so much, 4est, check them out this morning:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Do my eyes deceive me, or does that look like the last seven national polls all show Trump ahead?
Yeah, I know, it's July.
Poll: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump tied going into Democratic convention
From CBS this morning, since you care about polls so much.
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