UK Parliamentary Elections - Bored?

[oggbashan]

Are UK Litsters as bored of the UK Parliamentary elections as I am?

The nightly BBC News spends at least one third on the elections, and I'm ready to switch it off until after the election has taken place.

I live in a 'safe' seat. I could vote Monster Raving Loony, Green, or "The Flying Spaghetti Monster for Prime Minister" and my vote wouldn't change the local result. The sitting MP will be re-elected, the local council will still be controlled by the same party. Nothing will change.

So why do I get bombarded with news reports about live debates, or refusal to take part in live debates, and reports of voting intentions in Aberdeen or Anglesey? None of the politicians' statements can make any difference to the local result.

Local teenagers are being urged to register to vote. Their usual response is "Why should I bother?" because even if every new voter choose to vote for the candidate that every one knows will come second, that candidate will still lose.

It wouldn't matter if the constituency changed to proportional representation or single transferrable vote. The sitting MP's majority is so large that nothing would make a difference. In some 20th Century elections the MP had won more votes than the total of votes for all other parties added together.

I'm more interested in the result of the FA Cup, and I don't really like football.

Rant over. I will vote because I consider it is my duty and responsibility to express my considered preference as best I can, even though my vote will not change anything. I owe that to the people who died protecting my right to vote.

 

[KingOrfeo]

Just out of curiosity, what party is your unbeatable MP?

 

[DesEsseintes]

It will be Tory - except in some Welsh seats, and that's mostly past now, it was always the Tories who held the vast majorities. In my seat the Tory has won more than 50% of the vote for ages now, even with 5 or 6 other candidates standing.

 

[ishtat]

It will be Tory - except in some Welsh seats, and that's mostly past now, it was always the Tories who held the vast majorities. In my seat the Tory has won more than 50% of the vote for ages now, even with 5 or 6 other candidates standing.

You could not be more wrong DE. Of the 20 largest majorities by percentage vote at the last election, Labour held 14 and the Tories 3.

I reckon that Og is just another disillusioned voter. In an era when politicians stand for nothing except their own expense accoun,t the ability of any voter to influence events is nil. I predict the lowest turnout ever. Voters are sick of pollies of all stripes.

 

[DesEsseintes]

You could not be more wrong DE. Of the 20 largest majorities by percentage vote at the last election, Labour held 14 and the Tories 3.

I reckon that Og is just another disillusioned voter. In an era when politicians stand for nothing except their own expense accoun,t the ability of any voter to influence events is nil. I predict the lowest turnout ever. Voters are sick of pollies of all stripes.

Fascinating, and happy to be proven wrong - thank you.

 

[oggbashan]

I live in Kent. The only party likely to threaten the Conservative Blue is UKIP.

 

[paul__2345]

I live in Kent. The only party likely to threaten the Conservative Blue is UKIP.

Does anyone know what there voting for. 12 billion welfare cuts but wont say where. And the rest wont say what they will do in the future

 

[oggbashan]

Does anyone know what there voting for. 12 billion welfare cuts but wont say where. And the rest wont say what they will do in the future

If the likely result is that no party wins an overall majority, and a coalition of two or more parties is required:

then no party's manifesto or promises or statements they have made have any value at all. The largest party would have to negotiate with their partner/partners to come up with a set of acceptable policies.

That's why it was unfair to blame the Liberal Democrats for not scrapping University tuition fees. They could only have honoured that promise IF they had won an overall majority in Parliament - which was never going to happen. They last governed from 1905 to 1915 - one hundred years ago!

The minor parties such as UKIP and the Greens can promise anything because they know they won't form a majority government. Only the Conservatives and Labour might possibly have to stick by their word. But they don't.

 

[domroger]

Never mind you can always drown your sorrows with a couple of pints of Shepherd and Neames .

 

[gotsnowgotslush]

Responding to oggbashan's viewpoint-

I am sad to see the UK.mirroring the misery that rains down on America, due to the malfunction of political parties.

The USA is fortunate, that President Obama provides some restraint to how much services and assistance are gutted.

Many people that I knew, that were UK citizens, praised their higher educational system. It gave me heartache to see the students struggling against those who would harm it.

I was born in 1954, when my part of the USA had similar progressive views that mirrored what the UK was offering. High standards, and high quality education, for anyone who had the ability.

May the fates forbid, that what has happened in the USA, should ever happen in the UK.

Wall Street has sent their sharks after our colleges and universities. Some of the young people are in debt for the rest of their lives. They paid for a pig in a poke, when they were promised a better future.

The children have been added by Wall Street and the Religious Right, as resources to be exploited.
The parents may make the mistake of buying a pig in a poke, getting into debt, and having their children be grifted out of the education that was paid for.

I was hoping that when the coalition began in the UK, it would result in something that would serve everyone well.

As you can see, the USA is stumbling along, right now. I fear that the situation is fated to become more horrible, than it has been.

Off Topic

My local Public Television station aired an episode of New Tricks.

"...re-opens the unsolved 1998 murder of a playboy shipping heir and a killing that leads the team to the Rock of Gibraltar. In the UK, Brian finds life without police work unbearable and defies his superiors once again by flying to Gibraltar."

They dropped some facts about Gibraltar, during the show.
(Busy place, during the war.)

 

[paul__2345]

If the likely result is that no party wins an overall majority, and a coalition of two or more parties is required:

then no party's manifesto or promises or statements they have made have any value at all. The largest party would have to negotiate with their partner/partners to come up with a set of acceptable policies.

That's why it was unfair to blame the Liberal Democrats for not scrapping University tuition fees. They could only have honoured that promise IF they had won an overall majority in Parliament - which was never going to happen. They last governed from 1905 to 1915 - one hundred years ago!

The minor parties such as UKIP and the Greens can promise anything because they know they won't form a majority government. Only the Conservatives and Labour might possibly have to stick by their word. But they don't.

I agree but when the major party of a coalition says no top down reorganization of NHS and and within a month there reorganising. Does that mean coalition means rewrite everything and the promises you make in that manifesto that got you elected should be scrapped. Doesn't sound very democratic

 

[oggbashan]

I agree but when the major party of a coalition says no top down reorganization of NHS and and within a month there reorganising. Does that mean coalition means rewrite everything and the promises you make in that manifesto that got you elected should be scrapped. Doesn't sound very democratic

It isn't - democratic that is.

We need to learn from other countries that have a history of coalition governments. Their promises to the electorate tend to be based on what they know (or think they know) their coalition partners would accept.

If no party wins an overall majority, all bets are off for what the eventual coalition would do. The agreement between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives made it clear what would happen - but that wasn't what the electorate voted for.

The real danger is that the SNP might pull Labour's strings in a coalition. The whole of the UK would be governed in the interests of Scottish SNP voters.

But a Conservative/Labour coalition could ignore the minority parties.

Whether they could work together for five years? Many supporters of both parties would be choking on their drinks if that coalition was proposed.

 

[paul__2345]

But so far no policies are being announced. It seems don't vote for that party because u will get another. Or personal attacks on people but no policies

 

[leftie]

But so far no policies are being announced. It seems don't vote for that party because u will get another. Or personal attacks on people but no policies

This is the common thread of all party's approach to election campains these days...

I thought in a sadistic effort to expand my general knowledge (and have something to talk about with UK expats living here in NZ and vice-versa) I would try to follow the UK election. Is anyone able to give a general run-down of the state of play in words of three syllables or less?

First up: this UKIP crowd are kinda dicks, right?

Secondly, in response to the OP: we have a proportional representation system here and it does make 'boring' seats a little more interesting. Probably depends on the system, but my seat in the last general election here was sewn up by the local Labour candidate, however the Tories (National) won the popular vote.

PR does give rise to a collection of different absurdities which are probably a topic for a whole different thread!

 

[oggbashan]

... Is anyone able to give a general run-down of the state of play in words of three syllables or less?

First up: this UKIP crowd are kinda dicks, right?

...

My view:

The Conservatives might win the most seats but not enough to govern alone.

Labour will get severely beaten in Scotland by the Scottish National Party, losing so many seats there that they won't have enough in the whole of the UK to govern alone. They might gain some seats from the Conservatives because of Conservative votes leaking to UKIP. That won't compensate for the losses in Scotalnd.

The Liberal Democrats are likely to lose seats because they were in the coalition government, and a vote for them might just as well be for a Conservative government. They might, however, gain seats in Scotland from those who don't want SNP or a Labour/SNP coalition.

Plaid Cymru might lose seats because of their unpopularity as the power brokers in the Welsh Assembly. Those seats might go to Labour, or Conservative, or Liberal Democrat but not in sufficient numbers to make a real difference in the UK overall.

UKIP? They might gain one or possibly two seats, but their major impact will be by splitting votes for the Conservatives or Labour, leading to unpredictability in some English seats.

The Greens? Their record as the power in Brighton's local government might scare off potential votes for their attempts to gain a Westminster seat. I would be surprised if they won a single seat.

Northern Ireland will do its own thing as usual, but some successful candidates will refuse to take up their seat at Westminster, so NI influence will be minimal UNLESS their votes make a difference between a potential coalition or not.

Labour and the Conservatives are making policy announcements daily, and then rubbishing each other's proposals as 'unfunded'.

Labour still doesn't seem to accept that the UK's debt is a real problem, nor that business leaders are scared that Labour's economic policies are dangerous. Whether Labour's economic policies ARE dangerous? That's another question but Labour doesn't seem to have an answer to the impression that their policies are dangerous.

The Conservatives are still fighting the accusation that they are the nasty party, targetting those on benefits and supporting the rich at the expense of most other groups. They are promising much more cuts and austerity with light at the end of the tunnel in five/ten/guess your own number years.

The major parties have two problems:

1. People don't believe their promises, and
2. The flawed impressions people have of their intentions seem impossible to overcome. The choice seems to be Labour's financial incompetence or the Conservatives' severe austerity. Either or both could hurt people in their pockets.

Immigration, despite UKIP, is really a side-show. Most accept that we cannot stop EU workers travelling, and they come to the UK because they can earn more (and work harder) than in their own countries. But they go back home if the economy improves in their country.

Non-EU and illegal migration is the real problem. The UK is attractive, not really because of the benefit system, but because illegals (or asylum seekers) can work in the black economy, and even get a National Insurance number, and earn real money. That isn't possible in other parts of Europe where either:

1. There aren't the jobs e.g. Greece, Spain, or
2. The requirements to get a job includes genuine identity documents which are very difficult to get.

We are not building enough houses for the increase in population caused by immigration from all sources, and those that are being built are too expensive to buy or rent. No party is promising to build enough property to house those already in the country, let alone expected immigration over the next decade.

Conclusion: No one knows WTF the result will be except a mess that will mean building a coalition somehow. Only a Conservative/Labour coalition (unthinkable to many!) could form a really stable government.


APPENDIX

Extract of UK Government Statistics:

National Insurance Number Allocations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK – registrations to March 2014.
This annual report provides statistics regarding National Insurance Numbers (NINo) allocated to adult overseas nationals entering the United Kingdom (UK). A NINo is generally required by any overseas national looking to work or claim benefits / tax credits in the UK, including the self employed or students working part time.

The figures are based on recorded registration date on the HMRC National Insurance Recording and Pay as you Earn System, i.e. after the NINo application process has been completed. This may be a number of weeks or months (or in some cases years) after arriving in the UK.


Headline Figures:

The total number of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals in 2013/14 was 603 thousand, an increase of 40 thousand (7%) on the previous year.

Within the European Union (EU)
- The number of NINo registrations from EU nationals in 2013/14 was 439 thousand, an increase of 54 thousand (14%) on the previous year.

- The number of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals from EU2 nationals (Bulgaria and Romania) in 2013/14 was 65 thousand, an increase of 36 thousand (129%) on the previous year.

Rest of the world
- The number of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals from outside the EU in 2013/14 was 162 thousand, a decrease of 14 thousand (8%) on the previous year.

 

[Beatnic_jazzman]

Conservative manifesto

Well, the caring sharing party strikes...

I can't believe they expect us to swallow this change of face.

 

[Sean]

Well, the caring sharing party strikes...

I can't believe they expect us to swallow this change of face.

They've realised that their relentless personal attacks on Milliband, particularly Fallon's the other day, have backfired to fuck. I'm not the world's greatest Milliband fan, but he weathered this particular storm, and the hatred that the bogroll press tried to drum up, pretty well.

 

[Lord_Nibiru]

yes I'm bored of hearing the same shit every five years. they're all full of utter bullshit the lot of them. the major parties are the same:

1) they all love war
2) they all intend to make spending cuts
3) they all pretend the NHS is top priority and then privatise further
4) they all pretend they think education is a right and then up the price
5) they all LOVE europe and have no intention of leaving (Tories certainly and even UKIP tend to reject the real anti-EU politicans in their party)
6) they all pretend to believe in climate change caused by human carbon emissions and use it to steal from the public whilst continuing to increase emissions themselves

they all represent the same system

 

[NeverEndingMe]

They've realised that their relentless personal attacks on Milliband, particularly Fallon's the other day, have backfired to fuck. I'm not the world's greatest Milliband fan, but he weathered this particular storm, and the hatred that the bogroll press tried to drum up, pretty well.

we all know that you are a fan of the crack. keep on smoking!

may junkies like you live on and on.... (only in rehab)

 

[Lord_Nibiru]

we all know that you are a fan of the crack. keep on smoking!

may junkies like you live on and on.... (only in rehab)

FWIW I think anyone falling for those 'main' parties must be on crack - in some senses I envy em

take good care and be sure to vote for another 5 years of lies, deceit and hatred of the general public.

 

[Sean]

FWIW I think anyone falling for those 'main' parties must be on crack - in some senses I envy em

take good care and be sure to vote for another 5 years of lies, deceit and hatred of the general public.

Don't quote the retards.

 

[oggbashan]

Two days to go.

Locally, in a safe Conservative seat, the lack of interest is significant. There are very few posters displayed for any candidate at all.

The sitting MP will win despite UKIP.

The only contest might be for the local council seats. They have had a ward reorganisation and reduction in the number of councillors. No one really knows what the new ward boundaries might produce in political affiliations except that a Conservative-led council is almost certain.

Some of the sitting councillors have decided it is time to retire, so whatever happens there will be new faces on the council. But some of the candidates make me feel like a youngster. Perhaps there ought to be a maximum age for candidates - 75? 85?

Or a test for dementia?

No. That wouldn't work. Anyone standing for a local council seat needs their head examined. Despite complaints about the 'massive' allowances paid to councillors, their pay worked out per hour is far less than McDonalds' staff.

 

[Scotsman69]

Dearest Ogg

Your original post was way off the mark concerning Scotland. The SNP will take seats with previously 'unbeatable' majorities of many thousands, from strongholds of both Labour and LibDems.

The Tories will be very lucky indeed to retain the ONE seat they currently hold, out of 59 Scottish constituencies represented at Westminster. So don't give me this crap about how 'undemocratic' it will be if the SNP holds the balance of power at Westminster, and will be able to 'dictate' policy in favour of Scotland at Westminster. Scotland has suffered 'undemocratically' from the policies of Westminster Governments for which only a small minority of Scots voted, for generations. For much of the time since the Treaty of Union in 1707, to be precise.

The last time the Tories had a majority of Scottish votes and seats was over half a century ago, in 1955. It is a simple fact of life in Scotland that English MPs have dictatorially imposed their will on Scotland for generations. That is the largest single reason why the SNP will win a significant majority of Scottish seats on Thursday. We are sick to death of having policies dictatorially imposed on us by English MPs. If it looks possible that after Thursday that will be reversed... well TOUGH, England. The boot will be on the other foot for a change. The Scots tail will for once, no doubt briefly in historical terms, wag the English dog. See how you like it.

The basic fact of the matter is that the Union between Scotland and England is no longer politically sustainable. Believe me, there are hundreds of thousands of Scots who voted NO by a narrow majority to Scottish independence last September, who will be voting SNP on Thursday. I live and work here. Scotland has changed significantly, even compared to last September, when I also slogged the streets and knocked on folk's doors.

At the start of Thatcher's reign, there were still a respectable number of Scots Tories returned to Westminster. Though they held a minority of Scottish seats, few folk in Westminster, or many other places in England, believed it was 'undemocratic' for the Thatcher governments to 'dictatorially' impose policies on Scotland for which few Scots voted. By the end of the Poll Tax fiasco (deliberately imposed on Scotland one year before the RUK, and made so unworkable by successful Scottish non-payment campaigns that it brought down Thatcher as Tory leader), the Tories had for a period precisely NO Scottish seats, and controlled NO Scottish local authorities. Now they have 1 out of 59 Westminster seats, and control still ZERO Scottish local councils.

Such 'democratic' imposition on Scotland, of policies deeply resented here, by successive Westminster governments, is PRECISELY the reason why the SNP will take a swathe of 'unassailable' seats from both Labour and LibDems. And reduce the Scots Tory presence at Westminster to zero again.

The constituency in which I live currently has a LibDem MP at Westminster. On Saturday I received in the post a glossy expensive LibDem card. Its contents? Here they are, word for word... and remember, this was produced and paid for by the Liberal Democrats:

"An important message from Sir Malcolm Rifkind. (Former Conservative Secretary of State for Scotland.)

VOTE LIBDEM... TO BLOCK SNP."

So the LibDems are reduced to appealing to traditional Tory voters (the Tories have held this constituency in the past, and still have a substantial vote here) to switch to LibDem at this election... to "BLOCK THE SNP".

Quite the apotheosis of democracy, don't you think OGG?

And in leafy suburbs on the other side of Glasgow, every poll suggests that newly appointed Scottish Labour gauleiter Jim Murphy MP (whom the Labour Party in Scotland did not democratically elect as its leader), will hold East Renfrewshire ONLY if he wins the votes of Tory defecting constituents... TO STOP THE SNP FROM WINNING THE SEAT.

Card-carrying Tory Party members voting LABOUR? No, not a fantasy. It will happen in Scotland the day after tomorrow. And the leader of the Labour party at Westminster, one Miliband, is on record as saying the he would PREFER to suffer a further five years of Tory-led coalition at Westminster, than to lead a Labour Government which depended in any way on support from the SNP. A small matter on which a significant number of Labour MPs, and one suspects millions of English traditional Labour voters, disagree with him.

Here's the final irony about how 'undemocratically' Scotland is governed. The constitution of the present devolved Scottish Parliament - which could be demolished tomorrow if any Westminster government so decreed, against the wishes of the overwhelming majority of the Scottish electorate - was DELIBERATELY DEVISED, with the support of Labour and LibDems, and against Tory opposition, to contain an element of Proportional Representation for the area 'List' seats.

The Tories only hang onto their handful of seats in the Scottish Parliament BECAUSE of the PR to which they were bitterly opposed. Does than mean that Scotland is anti-democratic? Nope, it means that the Tories are. But they are prepared to benefit from the democracy they opposed tooth and nail.

And of course, at the last Scottish elections, the SNP defied the expectations of the architects of our voting system by winning a supposedly 'impossible' outright majority at Holyrood.

We live in interesting times indeed. I'm now an old man. But within my lifetime there is only one absolute certainty in the politics in our allegedly 'United Kingdom':

Scotland will regain its place in the growing list of proudly independent wee European nations. Norway and much more recently Slovakia achieved this peaceably. Scotland is next. The United Kingdom as we currently know it will disappear off the map. And few Scots will mourn its passing.

That is the only certainty about the future facing the UK electorate at Thursday's General Election. The only problem is that a majority of our English neighbours haven't realised it yet.

No, sorry, not quite the ONLY certainty. The other certainty on Thursday is that Scottish MPs will be returned with huge electoral turnouts, compared to most if not all of the rest of our disUnited Kingdom.

So who will emerge with democratic credibility? To an extent the SNP. But only by the democratic will of the people of Scotland.

And given all that I have spent some time pointing out to you OGG, perhaps your 'fantasy' of a Labour/Tory coalition emerging after Thursday isn't so fantastic after all. Tories, LibDems, and Labour, or at least their current leaderships, all share only one mantra:

STOP THE SNP AT ANY COST.

It isn't - democratic that is.

We need to learn from other countries that have a history of coalition governments. Their promises to the electorate tend to be based on what they know (or think they know) their coalition partners would accept.

If no party wins an overall majority, all bets are off for what the eventual coalition would do. The agreement between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives made it clear what would happen - but that wasn't what the electorate voted for.

The real danger is that the SNP might pull Labour's strings in a coalition. The whole of the UK would be governed in the interests of Scottish SNP voters.

But a Conservative/Labour coalition could ignore the minority parties.

Whether they could work together for five years? Many supporters of both parties would be choking on their drinks if that coalition was proposed.

 

[Scotsman69]

I do find it fascinating that the UK general election tomorrow is of such little interest to UK posters, let alone those from furth of the UK.

Whatever the immediate electoral outcome, one thing is certain: May 7 2015 will be remembered in history as the date on which what used to be the world's leading imperialist power finally started to disintegrate internally. Within a decade or so - no longer - the

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NOTHERN IRELAND

as it is properly known, will have disappeared from the map.

This will have immediate consequences in particular for the USA, the European Union, and NATO; but for some of the rest of the world too.

Just remember; you read it here first.

 

[Scotsman69]

Polling opens for the UK General Election in seven hours.

There are 59 Scottish seats. In the last poll I have seen online, the anticipated Scottish outcome was:

Tories: 0
Libdems: 1
Labour: 5
SNP: 53

Elsewhere, the dreaded English Nationalist 'UK'IP gets 3 seats from the Tories in Kent and Essex. The Greens hold their Brighton seat. LibDems lose lots of seats, to both Labour and Tories.

Tory Cameron may not be able to cobble together a working majority with the LibDems, UKIP, and the rightwing DUP in Northern Ireland.

So it might just be the option of

Labour with SNP and other support. (Which 'Labour' leader Milibad has absolutely ruled out.)

Or a Tory/Labour coalition.

Who'd a thunk, OGG. Looks like your fantasy might be realised? (To my knowledge, neither Tories nor 'Labour' have ruled out an unholy alliance between the two.)

They're all just so fucking desperate, they might break EVERY previous tradition to keep us colonial Scots in our subservient place.