~~Gallup's final poll

[unregistered]

 

[mercury14]

Final RWCJ commentariat predictions:

• Karl Rove: Romney wins, 279 EC votes
• Michael Barone (Wash. Examiner): Romney wins, 315 EC votes
• Glenn Beck: Romney wins, 321 EC votes
• George Will: Romney wins, 321 EC votes
• Dick Morris: Romney wins, 325 EC votes
• The Vettebigot: Me not smart enought to go to electoral college, but Romney gets 2 billion more votes per day than Obama

I heard George Will's analysis... Has Romney winning all over in places like Minnesota, etc.

 

[mercury14]

No, I'm talking about your collective spin on everything Obama.

So mentioning the pollster that conservatives have been putting their seal of approval on for months is 'spin'?

What can I say that's not spin in your mind?

 

[Wrong Element]

Final RWCJ commentariat predictions:

• Karl Rove: Romney wins, 279 EC votes
• Michael Barone (Wash. Examiner): Romney wins, 315 EC votes
• Glenn Beck: Romney wins, 321 EC votes
• George Will: Romney wins, 321 EC votes
• Dick Morris: Romney wins, 325 EC votes
• The Vettebigot: Me not smart enought to go to electoral college, but Romney gets 2 billion more votes per day than Obama

Wow, any group where Karl Rove is the relative voice of reason is a real rogues' gallery of idiocy.

 

[VaticanAssassin]

I'm saying that the Gallup poll shows the momentum currently with Obama because that's what it shows since October 11th. Romney peaked then and then has slowly coasted backwards. I don't really care that Romney had the momentum in early October because the election didn't happen then.

Honestly, I would make a terrible teacher and end up smaking some dumbass like you that just could not comprehend.

But I will try one more time.

First, you cherry pick Obama low point in gallup. This point is outside the curve and would be considered a outlier. Essentially if you look at 6 months of polling data 45% is worthless. In fact, the bell is almost so perfect that 48% is almost 100% credible with a smaller margin than 2-3%.

Second, two weeks is not a trend. Not because I say it is not. Because math says it is not. Was statistics not a required course in the 60's?

If I were to go back 2 months and see the Romney at plus 6 and call it a trend I would be wrong as well.

 

[unregistered]

 

[mercury14]

Honestly, I would make a terrible teacher and end up smaking some dumbass like you that just could not comprehend.

But I will try one more time.

First, you cherry pick Obama low point in gallup. This point is outside the curve and would be considered a outlier. Essentially if you look at 6 months of polling data 45% is worthless. In fact, the bell is almost so perfect that 48% is almost 100% credible with a smaller margin than 2-3%.

Second, two weeks is not a trend. Not because I say it is not. Because math says it is not. Was statistics not a required course in the 60's?

If I were to go back 2 months and see the Romney at plus 6 and call it a trend I would be wrong as well.

What you insist on doing is considering several momentum shifts over an undefined period of time until it's all meaningless. What I'm doing is illustrating which candidate has the current momentum at a point when it's a popular vote coin-flip. On election day. Is the trend moving towards one candidate or the other?

Using your "logic" no poll can really ever say anything.

 

[Disgustipated]

TMZ says Obama wins!

Who's gonna win?

    Obama
    58%
    Romney
    42%

Total Votes: 69,676

 

[Wrong Element]

First, you cherry pick Obama low point in gallup. This point is outside the curve and would be considered a outlier.

I thought it was an outlier too:

That's not just a talking point: as of right now, it's the only major national poll that shows Romney ahead by any margin (Rasmussen has it as a tie).

I'm not sure what's up with Gallup, though I assume the biggest reason for this disparity is the screen they are using to determine what is a "likely voter" (Romney's Gallup lead among all voters is just 1 point).

But a couple of weeks ago, those of us saying that were a pretty lonely bunch here on the GB.


As opposed to

All for nothing...


Gallup: Obama's Job Approval Drops 7 Points in 3 Days
By Terence P. Jeffrey
October 27, 2012

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/gallup-obamas-job-approval-drops-7-points-3-days

They've never been wrong with a candidate at 50% in October.

So, don't lose the faith. Obama's not going to get his 2008 turn-out.

Also, if Romney does win I've pledged to leave the forum. So, it's a win-win for everyone!

GALLUP: R 51% O 45%

Im sure the WH will threaten em again

Useless trivia or important point?

No candidate to have a 50%, or more, lead among Gallup's survery of "likely voters" in October has ever gone on to lose a presidential election.

Romney is at 51% today among likely voters.

Obama's not touched 50% this October.

I think the key point here is that aside from Gallup, there haven't been any national polls that have shown movement towards Romney for a few weeks now, outside of fluctuations within the normal margin of error. And now, even Gallup has come back to the pack.

 

[mercury14]

November 4, 2008 flashback!

Rasmussen has McCain +1 in Florida and tied in Ohio. And the NRO predicts McCain's last-minute plunge into Pennsylvania will bring it home for the red team....

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/226223/predicting-tonight/nro-symposium

 

[Busybody]

Obama will win

DONE!

 

[RobDownSouth]

I don't need to mention it because a plurality of electoral votes for Romney is a foregone conclusion.

^^^^ Sez the derplord who confidently predicted a landslide for McCain in 2008.

 

[Byron In Exile]

I don't need to mention it because a plurality of electoral votes for Romney is a foregone conclusion.

He needs a majority, not a plurality.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Vetty and Byron: Seperated at Birth?

He needs a majority, not a plurality.

Perhaps he thinks it is perfectly acceptable to substitute "plurality" for "majority", not unlike you substituting "popular vote" for "electoral college vote".

 

[Byron In Exile]

Perhaps he thinks it is perfectly acceptable to substitute "plurality" for "majority", not unlike you substituting "popular vote" for "electoral college vote".

I never substituted "popular vote" for "electoral college vote," you dumbass!

Lol...!

You're so fucking lost... you don't even understand what you think you're trying to razz me about!

What a maroon...

P.S. It's "separated," not "seperated."

 

[RobDownSouth]

I never substituted "popular vote" for "electoral college vote," you dumbass!

Lol...!

You're so fucking lost... you don't even understand what you think you're trying to razz me about!

What a maroon...

P.S. It's "separated," not "seperated."

That's right, bluster it out.

So predictable.

 

[Byron In Exile]

That's right, bluster it out.

So predictable.

There's nothing to bluster out, dumbass. You and I both know you haven't a clue what you're talking about. Who is it you think you're fooling?

 

[RobDownSouth]

There's nothing to bluster out, dumbass. You and I both know you haven't a clue what you're talking about. Who is it you think you're fooling?

I called you out in your prediction thread. Get to spinning, bitch. I'll check back after dinner to grade your work.

 

[kotori]

I was just watching the BBC news. Lines as far as the eye could see outside polling places. It was like watching something from the third world.

Florida is the Third World.

 

[unregistered]

 

[bra_man69]

Obama will win

DONE!

http://danieljmitchell.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/obama-inherit.jpg

 

[doctor_insanus]

Two weeks is forever... in an election cycle. And the last two weeks have clearly shown a trend toward President Obama, even before Sandy.

Whatever gets you through the day, though.

 

[QueenLevitra]

Two weeks is forever... in an election cycle. And the last two weeks have clearly shown a trend toward President Obama, even before Sandy.

Whatever gets you through the day, though.

Sandy reminded me of Katrina and Bush Jr's response...

The fly over, the "Brownie" thing.

Fuck.

 

[VaticanAssassin]

Two weeks is forever... in an election cycle. And the last two weeks have clearly shown a trend toward President Obama, even before Sandy.

Whatever gets you through the day, though.

The old I say it is so argument?

I think I missed that one. Was it on the third or seventh actuarial exam?

 

[John Doe]

Why the fuck can't Florida organise an election with some degree of competency?

Have you ever been to Florida?