Romney Pulls Ahead

[4est_4est_Gump]

Henny Youngman is back...

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Take my poll, please!

 

[AngeloMichael]

Republicans...yada, yada, yada...river in Egypt

Start working on fabricating your "how Obama cheated and stole the election" arguments, it's all you'll have after November 6.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Read it and weep Lit clowns:

Romney Pulls Ahead
By Dick Morris on September 25, 2012

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied.

Meanwhile, back in reality, a place Vetty left a long time ago...

Fox News: Obama builds lead in Florida and Ohio

The survey showed Obama leading 53-43 percent in Ohio, and 53-44 percent in Florida.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

"It's a tough universe. There's all sort of people and things trying to do you, kill you, rip you off, everything. If you're going to survive out there, you've really got to know where your towel is."
Ford

In both Ohio and Florida, Barack Obama’s “clear leads” all come from heavy over-sampling of Democrats, not from winning the crucial Indie vote. In fact, most of the polls that show Obama with big leads also show Romney handily winning Independent voters. Yet, somehow, Obama manages to increase his performance from 2008 despite Independents now opposing him. Let's take a look at how Romney is competing among Independents in recent polls:

Ohio – Leads Among Independents
Ohio Newspaper Organization – Romney +28
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac – Romney +1
American Research Group – Romney +16
Fox News – Romney +4
We Ask America – Romney +3
Public Policy Polling – Romney +2

Florida - Leads Among Independents
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac – Romney +3
Gravis Marketing – Romney +4
We Ask America – Romney +2
American Research Group – Romney +1
Florida Times Union – Romney +4
Fox News – Obama +2

Remember, these are states Obama won by small margins in 2008, primarily by winning Independents by 7 and 8 points. If Barack Obama were winning with Independents in every poll, it’s clear the media would be talking about it just as they did, to the point of annoyance, four years ago.

Independents make up roughly one third of the electorate, and one would think they might get a little attention this time of year just as they do every other election year. If Romney turns the Independent vote his way like these polls suggest, his chances of winning turnout in even Florida and Ohio are excellent. But the reality is that the way Independents are now voting simply doesn’t mix with the media’s tidy narrative that Obama is running away with the election in key battleground states.

Never know when you have to throw it in...

 

[BotanyBoy]

Read it and weep Lit clowns:

Romney Pulls Ahead
By Dick Morris on September 25, 2012

The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men. Tell me your demographic and I’ll tell you who you’re voting for and I’ll be right at least two times out of three!

Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).

Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.

In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out. Indeed, when one compares party identification in the August and September polls of this year in swing states, the Democratic Party identification is flat while the ranks of Republicans rose by an average of two points per state.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.
So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).
This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

That’s the real state of play today.

http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-pulls-ahead/

All this is great.....but the fact still stands....

Romney is still a gun banning, pro welfare, anti everything that is conservatism RINO so far left he makes Obama look like a libertarian.

I mean Obama WANTS to be like Romney so bad he even copied his health welfare program..... ohhh yea that's the GOP/Conservative way!!!!

I like my guns.....so Obama is the clear choice, sad hua?

 

[koalabear]

All this is great.....but the fact still stands....

Romney is still a gun banning, pro welfare, anti everything that is conservatism RINO so far left he makes Obama look like a libertarian.

I mean Obama WANTS to be like Romney so bad he even copied his health welfare program..... ohhh yea that's the GOP/Conservative way!!!!

I like my guns.....so Obama is the clear choice, sad hua?

So you belong to a mexican drug cartel.

 

[hummermania]

Originally Posted by vetteman
Read it and weep Lit clowns:

Romney Pulls Ahead

HA HA HA HA HA HA HAhahahahahahahahah
Oh, thats a good one.
Please, more spin, Laughing is good for the soul.

 

[BotanyBoy]

So you belong to a mexican drug cartel.

Do I get an New M4 if I say yes? lol I herd Ruger was making the new gov model...piston type mmmmmmm Stoner rifle ergonomics with Kalashnikov reliability.

Meh...mexican drug cartels bother/worry/scare me exactly 0%.... I would rather stay armed while we sent them small arms by the truck load down to mexico than have ROMNEY come and take mine....he did it before, he could do it again.

Besides the cartel wars are 110% more effective at taking out violent drug cartels than the US's war on drugs is at prosecuting/incarcerating them.

 

[RobDownSouth]

"It's a tough universe. There's all sort of people and things trying to do you, kill you, rip you off, everything. If you're going to survive out there, you've really got to know where your towel is."
Ford



Never know when you have to throw it in...

Yup, as reliable as a Swiss watch, AJ pipes up with "Oversampling! Biased Polls!"

This, of course, lays the necessary groundwork for de-legitimizing President Obama's second term.

Operation Impeach Teh Negar is underway!

 

[koalabear]

Do I get an New M4 if I say yes? lol I herd Ruger was making the new gov model...piston type mmmmmmm Stoner rifle ergonomics with Kalashnikov reliability.

Meh...mexican drug cartels bother/worry/scare me exactly 0%.... I would rather stay armed while we sent them small arms by the truck load down to mexico than have ROMNEY come and take mine....he did it before, he could do it again.

Besides the cartel wars are 110% more effective at taking out violent drug cartels than the US's war on drugs is at prosecuting/incarcerating them.

Stop proving you are stupid, Oblamer is not pro-gun.

This list is not in any way exhaustive:

(1) In 1996, then Illinois state Senator Obama answered a gun control questionnaire. He wrote that he supported a complete ban on the manufacture, sale, and possession of handguns and “assault weapons,” and also supported mandatory waiting periods and background checks. During the 2008 campaign, candidate Obama denied ever filling out the questionnaire, despite the fact that it was completed in his handwriting. FactCheck.org confirmed that he had, in fact, filled out the questionnaire. [source A]

(2) In 1998, Mr. Obama expressed his support for a complete ban on the sale or transfer of all semi-automatic firearms. He supported increasing state restrictions on the purchase and possession of firearms — this in Illinois, one of the only two states that to this day bans concealed carry. [source A]

(3) The 1998 Joyce Foundation annual report revealed that Mr. Obama was a member of its board of directors. The Joyce Foundation is one of the largest sources of funding for anti-gun groups and for anti-gun “research.” [source 7]

(4) In 1999, the Chicago Defender reported that Mr. Obama wanted to ban the resale of police issued firearms, even for the purpose of buying new equipment. [source 4]

(5) In 1999, Mr. Obama endorsed a 500% increase in the federal excise tax on firearms and ammunition. This was obviously intended to increase the price of gun ownership so drastically as to make it unaffordable for most Americans. [source 4]

(6) In 1999, Mr. Obama supported a proposal to ban gun stores within five miles of a school or park. This was a reasonable sounding scheme that would have had the effect of banning nearly every gun store in America. [source 8]

(7) In 1999, the Chicago Defender also reported that Mr. Obama favored mandatory firearm training for all gun owners and a ban on gun ownership for everyone under 21. [source 4]

(8) In 2000, Mr. Obama cosponsored a bill that limited firearm purchases to one per month. The bill failed. He also voted against allowing citizens to violate local weapon bans where self-defense was involved. [source A]

(9) In 2004, Mr. Obama voted for an Illinois Senate bill that allowed retired law enforcement officers to carry concealed weapons. While this might seem to be at odds with every political stance he had taken on the issue, it was later revealed that at the time he was fighting his Republican opponent for the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police. His support for the bill was almost certainly cynical political pandering rather than an indication of any appreciation for police officers or for the rights of gun owners. [source A]

(10) In a 2004 Illinois Senate debate with Alan Keyes, Mr. Obama said: “I think it is a scandal that this president [Bush] did not authorize a renewal of the assault weapons ban.” [source A]

 

[BotanyBoy]

Stop proving you are stupid, Oblamer is not pro-gun.

This list is not in any way exhaustive:

Yup as a senator he supported gun control......but he has never signed off on a weapons ban as the chief executive officer of a state, EVER.

Romney has, he didn't even TRY to fight it....not 1 bit, he signed that gun ban into law with a big ol' smile on his face.

I don't think Obummer is pro 2A at all, he's just not as anti 2A as Romney

BUTT BUTT BUTT........HE JOINED THE NRA LAST WEEK!!! lmfao

 

[koalabear]

Yup as a senator he supported gun control......but he has never signed off on a weapons ban as the chief executive officer of a state, EVER.

Romney has, he didn't even TRY to fight it....not 1 bit, he signed that gun ban into law with a big ol' smile on his face.

I don't think Obummer is pro 2A at all, he's just not as anti 2A as Romney

BUTT BUTT BUTT........HE JOINED THE NRA LAST WEEK!!! lmfao

January 2013: After the most unremittingly negative, cynical presidential contest in American history, Barack Obama has narrowly won a second term in the White House and stands ready to take the oath of office again. Aided immeasurably by a Legacy Media that buried the Gunwalker scandal along with myriad other scandals potentially harmful to him — and relentlessly savaged his opponents — Mr. Obama just barely pulled himself across the finish line on the strength of his rhetoric.

No longer restrained by the need to maintain appearances in order to win reelection, no longer restrained by the need to appease congressional Democrats, he turns to those facets of his agenda too unpopular to openly pursue during a first term. Very near the top of his list is gun control – or, more properly, the disarming of the American people.

http://pjmedia.com/blog/the-future-of-obamas-stealth-gun-control/

 

[CHNOPS]

Between Lit's polling experts and Lit's climate experts, we must have the world's largest concentration of unemployed geniuses.

 

[BotanyBoy]

January 2013: After the most unremittingly negative, cynical presidential contest in American history, Barack Obama has narrowly won a second term in the White House and stands ready to take the oath of office again. Aided immeasurably by a Legacy Media that buried the Gunwalker scandal along with myriad other scandals potentially harmful to him — and relentlessly savaged his opponents — Mr. Obama just barely pulled himself across the finish line on the strength of his rhetoric.

No longer restrained by the need to maintain appearances in order to win reelection, no longer restrained by the need to appease congressional Democrats, he turns to those facets of his agenda too unpopular to openly pursue during a first term. Very near the top of his list is gun control – or, more properly, the disarming of the American people.

http://pjmedia.com/blog/the-future-of-obamas-stealth-gun-control/

^^ wild speculation looking for that emotional knee jerk appeal.

The factual record however shows Obama has NEVER signed a gun ban bill into law......Romney has.

Goldman Sachs is going to have to do a fuck load better than spaming FOX News with "anything but obamma" to convince me to vote for a statist/elitist sell out of that magnitude.

 

[Adre]

Who do you think will go farthest off the rails if Romney loses? Who will be the nuttiest Litster of them all when the Big O extends his contract for four more years?

 

[RobDownSouth]

Who do you think will go farthest off the rails if Romney loses? Who will be the nuttiest Litster of them all when the Big O extends his contract for four more years?

I'll go with Miles, although Vetty has become increasingly unhinged as of late.

Kinda interesting, though, in the past six days the vast majority of polls are showing large declines in support for Romney, so Vetty starts this thread in response.

Over on Fox yesterday, they began a massive campaign people are calling "poll birtherism" about the purported sampling bias in polls and using that as rationalization for Romney's upcoming defeat.

Right on cue, my little half-breed bitch Dances With Falsehoods comes in whining here about sampling bias.

Coincidence?

 

[CHNOPS]

I'll go with Miles, although Vetty has become increasingly unhinged as of late.

Kinda interesting, though, in the past six days the vast majority of polls are showing large declines in support for Romney, so Vetty starts this thread in response.

Over on Fox yesterday, they began a massive campaign people are calling "poll birtherism" about the purported sampling bias in polls and using that as rationalization for Romney's upcoming defeat.

Right on cue, my little half-breed bitch Dances With Falsehoods comes in whining here about sampling bias.

Coincidence?

Polling firms weight for sampling bias--along with a host of other potentially results-skewing factors. (Hence margins of error.)

The funny part is this: for four years, Vette has been posting poll result after poll result designed to 'prove' that Obama Is Bad and People Hate Him. No consternation about polling bias, not once. Mocking of those who show Rassmussen's methodology has proven unreliable in recent years, in fact.

Now that the polls show Obama Is Winning and Romney Is a Dork, they're totally flawed, man! And look: this guy who writes for the media totally agrees with me!

Also, the media is in Obama's pocket! Except for the guy who totally agrees with me! And others like him! Why isn't the media publishing their articles, huh?? And don't give me any of that, "They are, you're posting articles the media published" shit. That's exactly what they want you to think, you benighted mountebank.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Polling firms weight for sampling bias--along with a host of other potentially results-skewing factors. (Hence margins of error.)

The funny part is this: for four years, Vette has been posting poll result after poll result designed to 'prove' that Obama Is Bad and People Hate Him. No consternation about polling bias, not once. Mocking of those who show Rassmussen's methodology has proven unreliable in recent years, in fact.

Now that the polls show Obama Is Winning and Romney Is a Dork, they're totally flawed, man! And look: this guy who writes for the media totally agrees with me!

Also, the media is in Obama's pocket! Except for the guy who totally agrees with me! And others like him! Why isn't the media publishing their articles, huh?? And don't give me any of that, "They are, you're posting articles the media published" shit. That's exactly what they want you to think, you benighted mountebank.

Vetteman has been toasting Rasmussen's poll performance in 2006 and 2008....what my sissy Marine bitch won't mention, though, is that Rasmussen went "full Derp" on Republican oversampling in 2010 and has had the worst performance since then.

Or as the NY Times correctly called Rasmussen after the 2010 election: biased and inaccurate.

 

[RobDownSouth]

The news keeps getting better and better for Real Americans (not so good for Rapepublicans, though):

Congresswoman Michelle "Crazy Eyes" Bachmann, who won her district by 13% in 2010, is only up two percent against a well-financed opponent.

 

[CHNOPS]

She is going to need someone to comfort her after she loses. Her husband isn't exactly "up" for the job, if you know what I mean. I'd better get to MN quick.

 

[LongPenStroke]

i keep reading this thread title as 'romney pulls a head',
and it leaves me with ghastly mental images of him doing gay porn.

Well, there is the story of Romney doing a fundraiser in the same house that has wild sex parties. You never know.

 

[cjh]

She is going to need someone to comfort her after she loses. Her husband isn't exactly "up" for the job, if you know what I mean. I'd better get to MN quick.

Her brand of crazy does not translate into crazy monkey sex.

 

[CHNOPS]

Her brand of crazy does not translate into crazy monkey sex.

If loving her is wrong, I don't want to be right.

 

[LongPenStroke]

Vetteman has been toasting Rasmussen's poll performance in 2006 and 2008....what my sissy Marine bitch won't mention, though, is that Rasmussen went "full Derp" on Republican oversampling in 2010 and has had the worst performance since then.

Or as the NY Times correctly called Rasmussen after the 2010 election: biased and inaccurate.

I wonder how they explain away the Fux News poll that puts Obama ahead.

Obama tops Romney by seven percentage points among likely voters in both Ohio (49-42 percent) and Virginia (50-43 percent). In Florida, the president holds a five-point edge (49-44 percent).

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...y-in-three-battleground-states/#ixzz27hF8F2Eb