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Back To Back Tropical Storms In May

it's all about the gills, dude - we're going back to the waters
 


There's no need to panic; all you need to worry about are superstitious, anxiety-prone, scientifically-illiterate people who mistake black swans for reality.


They have a terrible habit of panicking and will frequently yell, "Fire, fire, fire" or "The sky is falling" without reason.



When in fear or in doubt,
run in circles,
scream and shout !​




 
black swans? didn't that saying get tossed in the trash when they actually discovered black swans? how fucking old are you?
 
pointless said:
black swans? didn't that saying get tossed in the trash when they actually discovered black swans? how fucking old are you?
Click to expand...



Old enough to know that the tails of normal distributions are just that.

 
I don't believe in global warming, but this isn't about superstition. We've had a very warm winter here in Florida and the water is warmer than it usually is. That could make hurricane season very damaging for us.
 


The facts just don't seem to want to fit. Not only is there no correlation— there isn't even anything remotely resembling an association.


http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/rss/from:1995/plot/rss/from:1996.83/trend/plot/esrl-co2/from:1996.83/normalise

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rs...83/trend/plot/esrl-co2/from:1996.83/normalise

Richard Feynman: "In general we look for a new law by the following process. First we guess it. Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what would be implied if this law that we guessed is right. Then we compare the result of the computation to nature, with experiment or experience; compare it directly with observation, to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment it is wrong."

The most important component of climate science is careful, long-term observations of climate-related phenomena, from space, from land, and in the oceans. If observations do not support code predictions—like more extreme weather, or rapidly rising global temperatures—Feynman has told us what conclusions to draw about the theory.

-William Happer, Ph.D.
Professor of Physics
Princeton University
Click to expand...
 
polar ice breaking up a month earlier than 'usual', european ski resorts losing money hand over fist due to lack of decent snow coverage, glaciers shrinking faster than ever - no, it can't be getting any warmer. :rolleyes:

climate change is real, and always will be.
i don't claim to know much about it at all, but go with my own observations which are limited to where i live and reports from those i know in europe and around the world. when i was a kid, the four seasons were pretty well-defined here in the south of the UK - winters were freezing cold for months (whether there was much snow or not), springs were cool, often wet, and green - summers were warm to hot, mostly dry with thunderstorms thrown into the mix - and autumns were golden, slowly cooling. a definite ebb and flow. that is NOT what we experience now - the plants tell me, the skies tell me, and each year we seem to progress towards generally warmer winters and drier summers, with no gentle easing between the seasons: it can be really chilly one day and blazing hot the next - and us brits do like time to adjust to temperature anomalies :rolleyes:
 
chipbutty said:
polar ice breaking up a month earlier than 'usual', european ski resorts losing money hand over fist due to lack of decent snow coverage, glaciers shrinking faster than ever - no, it can't be getting any warmer. :rolleyes:

climate change is real, and always will be.
i don't claim to know much about it at all, but go with my own observations which are limited to where i live and reports from those i know in europe and around the world. when i was a kid, the four seasons were pretty well-defined here in the south of the UK - winters were freezing cold for months (whether there was much snow or not), springs were cool, often wet, and green - summers were warm to hot, mostly dry with thunderstorms thrown into the mix - and autumns were golden, slowly cooling. a definite ebb and flow. that is NOT what we experience now - the plants tell me, the skies tell me, and each year we seem to progress towards generally warmer winters and drier summers, with no gentle easing between the seasons: it can be really chilly one day and blazing hot the next - and us brits do like time to adjust to temperature anomalies :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Not to quibble, and I don't care much about the global warming argument, but as I understand it, global warming would make Europe colder, rather than warmer because of the failure of the warm current off the coast of England.
 
JohnnySavage said:
Not to quibble, and I don't care much about the global warming argument, but as I understand it, global warming would make Europe colder, rather than warmer because of the failure of the warm current off the coast of England.
Click to expand...

it will once enough fresh water from the melted ice mixes into the ocean. until then it'll be hot.
 
JohnnySavage said:
Not to quibble, and I don't care much about the global warming argument, but as I understand it, global warming would make Europe colder, rather than warmer because of the failure of the warm current off the coast of England.
Click to expand...

North Western Europe, yes. The interior of the continent doesn't benefit from the Gulf Stream.
 
SgtSpiderMan said:
I don't believe in global warming, but this isn't about superstition. We've had a very warm winter here in Florida and the water is warmer than it usually is. That could make hurricane season very damaging for us.
Click to expand...


NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120524_atlantic_hurricane_season.html


May 24, 2012

Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season, NOAA announced today from Miami at its Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, and home to the Hurricane Research Division.

For the entire six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5). Based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“NOAA’s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years,” said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D. “But regardless of the outlook, it’s vital for anyone living or vacationing in hurricane-prone locations to be prepared. We have a stark reminder this year with the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.” Andrew, the Category 5 hurricane that devastated South Florida on August 24, 1992, was the first storm in a late-starting season that produced only six named storms.

Favoring storm development in 2012: the continuation of the overall conditions associated with the Atlantic high-activity era that began in 1995, in addition to near-average sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, known as the Main Development Region. Two factors now in place that can limit storm development, if they persist, are: strong wind shear, which is hostile to hurricane formation in the Main Development Region, and cooler sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Atlantic...
Click to expand...
 
SeanH said:
North Western Europe, yes. The interior of the continent doesn't benefit from the Gulf Stream.
Click to expand...

When I lived in Rome, I was always surprised that Rome is actually 1 degree further North than NYC, yet it's generally much warmer and doesn't get nearly the snow fall.

Probably not relevant to the discussion though. I just wanted to contribute.
 
JohnnySavage said:
When I lived in Rome, I was always surprised that Rome is actually 1 degree further North than NYC, yet it's generally much warmer and doesn't get nearly the snow fall.

Probably not relevant to the discussion though. I just wanted to contribute.
Click to expand...

The Med gets all that warm air coming up from N. Africa.
 
JohnnySavage said:
Not to quibble, and I don't care much about the global warming argument, but as I understand it, global warming would make Europe colder, rather than warmer because of the failure of the warm current off the coast of England.
Click to expand...
it has to switch off, first. if it does, then our brit temps will fall considerably. if things remain cold enough long enough, then the current should start up again.

pointless said:
it will once enough fresh water from the melted ice mixes into the ocean. until then it'll be hot.
Click to expand...
yeah, this.
 
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