No threads about the N. Korea nuke moratorium?

[Sean]

Ah, that light water reactor (and other concession) controversy. Everybody thought the regime would go away soon after Kim Il Sung's death and a famine raging. It was not a bad bet. Alas, the regime survived, and the international community had to pay, eg, the United States.

Right now, the DPRK appears to be keeping the status quo, and that includes the nuke moratorium. This has been a steady pattern for a couple of decades, and I do no not see this changing any time soon, especially during the critical juncture of handover to KJE.

The truth is both Clinton and Bush fucked up when working with Kim Jong Il. Hwang Jang Yop said it best. He pretends to be a great listener and does what he wants anyway. And that is what he did. Got his goodies, kept his nukes and thumbed his nose at a world not know wtf to do with them.

I suppose that with the new kid being such a total unknown no-one knows wtf they're going to do.

 

[Wok]

Didn't N Korea threaten S Korea only a few days ago?
Something about retaliation if the South continued with their excercises?

Hard to take them seriously when they still make threats like that.

Yes, that is common. Many close calls to all out war throughout its history.

 

[RAddams]

All nuked out

http://www.politician-pictures.com/naked-kim-jong-il.jpg

 

[Wok]

I suppose that with the new kid being such a total unknown no-one knows wtf they're going to do.

And there lies the biggest problem. Not that is anything new. Little was known about his father and grandfather too. At least with them, they were around long enough to establish behavior patterns to at least get some semblance of how the leader will act and react. That gave policymakers and think tanks some wiggle room to irk some kind of direction. In the end, it is still reading tea leaves and groping in the dark.

Now intelligence is back to square one waiting to see what kind of policies Kim Jong Eun will enact. That is also murky because the new leaders' capacity is unknown (obviously). Is he just a figurehead, or really the General Secretary and Supreme Commander? I am in the camp he is a figurehead, his uncle is the brains running the show via KPA/NDC muscle. This is a guess, but from the looks of things, he is being fast-tracked. Of course, that has significant downsides, such as cult of personality development. That certainly does not mean KJE is a lame duck, but a third dynastic handover is going to be extremely difficult.

I can see why the players are acting now. With this transition, it is not difficult to see the vulnerabilities, but in my opinion, it is just a big waste of time, because the North Koreans are trying to scramble and cobble together some semblance of prosperity. They do not want anything or anybody fucking things up, and that includes the "Haans Blix" problem.

 

[warrior queen]

Yes, that is common. Many close calls to all out war throughout its history.

See, that's the thing for me...
It's always an 'almost', with the occasional shot being fired.

 

[Wok]

See, that's the thing for me...
It's always an 'almost', with the occasional shot being fired.

More than likely, almost is the way it will remain because the north and the south (and its respective allies) do not want reunification regardless of the lip service.

Could things turn ugly and go to all out war? Sure, anything is possible.

 

[warrior queen]

More than likely, almost is the way it will remain because the north and the south (and its respective allies) do not want reunification regardless of the lip service.

Could things turn ugly and go to all out war? Sure, anything is possible.

Somehow, I don't think war is on the cards.
Might have something to do with China supporting the North, and the US supporting the South.

Reunification is never going to be an option. Sad, because I recently saw a documentary where 25 people from the South were given the opportunity to meet with long-lost relatives from the North.
They were supposed to have a whole day together, but it was cut short to one hour per visit.

 

[Wok]

Somehow, I don't think war is on the cards.
Might have something to do with China supporting the North, and the US supporting the South.

Reunification is never going to be an option. Sad, because I recently saw a documentary where 25 people from the South were given the opportunity to meet with long-lost relatives from the North.
They were supposed to have a whole day together, but it was cut short to one hour per visit.

Yeah, I can see your point.

Reunification is not in the cards, and that's the kind of things that causes problems.

 

[neci]

Anyone with half a brain on this site goes to Wok for DPRK analysis, whelp.

very true.

 

[Wok]

very true.

It is not true. The go-to people are:

Andrei Lankov
Peterson Institute
Dae Sook Suh

 

[Sean]

It is not true. The go-to people are:

Andrei Lankov
Peterson Institute
Dae Sook Suh

Yeah, but do they like peas? I think not.

 

[neci]

It is not true. The go-to people are:

Andrei Lankov
Peterson Institute
Dae Sook Suh

potters?

 

[neci]

peas! that's what the casserole needs!

 

[Wok]

The prospect of your entire populace rising up because they're starving to death concentrates the mind wonderfully. We'll see what Wok has to say on the subject.

Missed this post.

An uprising would be unlikely given the history and circumstances. I do agree with Marcus Noland if North Koreans were given a safe haven for dissent, the whole thing would blow up. That is one of the main differences with North Korea and the fall of the Eastern Bloc.

 

[Very_Bad_Man]

i think this new leader maybe more progressive and western influenced.

it makes no sense to pursue a weapon at the cost they were suffering. it is a weapon they do not need and if they used would be disaster for their little shithole kingdom. people will only stay oppressed so long before they rise up especially when their children are starving.

hopefully he will not get assassinated by the hardliners.

 

[JohnnySavage]

i think this new leader maybe more progressive and western influenced.

it makes no sense to pursue a weapon at the cost they were suffering. it is a weapon they do not need and if they used would be disaster for their little shithole kingdom. people will only stay oppressed so long before they rise up especially when their children are starving.

hopefully he will not get assassinated by the hardliners.

Did you lose your caps key? Dummy.

 

[Wok]

i think this new leader maybe more progressive and western influenced.

it makes no sense to pursue a weapon at the cost they were suffering. it is a weapon they do not need and if they used would be disaster for their little shithole kingdom. people will only stay oppressed so long before they rise up especially when their children are starving.

hopefully he will not get assassinated by the hardliners.

Kenji Fujimoto, Kim Jong Il's former chef claimed in his book, Kim Jong Eun is a chip off the old block. Cunning, ruthless, and selfish. Fujimoto claimed he would be the successor. Turns out he was right.

If what he said was true in his book, are the other things he said true too? Time will tell, but by all appearances, looks as if KJE may be the hardliner. That, and his handlers are hardliners as well, such as Jang Song Thaek.

 

[KingOrfeo]

Missed this post.

An uprising would be unlikely given the history and circumstances. I do agree with Marcus Noland if North Koreans were given a safe haven for dissent, the whole thing would blow up. That is one of the main differences with North Korea and the fall of the Eastern Bloc.

Sounds exactly like the Eastern Bloc, where, once people could dissent, the whole thing blew up.

 

[KingOrfeo]

Kenji Fujimoto, Kim Jong Il's former chef claimed in his book, Kim Jong Eun is a chip off the old block. Cunning, ruthless, and selfish.

Selfish enough to realize that being a rich playboy in the West is a lot more fun than wielding supreme absolute power in a shithole country? Well, might be too much to hope for.

 

[Wok]

Sounds exactly like the Eastern Bloc, where, once people could dissent, the whole thing blew up.

I said in the context of being unlikely, dipshit.

 

[Wok]

I said in the context of being unlikely, dipshit.

You know, that was uncalled for. My apologies.

 

[GuiltyPleasure]

Missed this post.

An uprising would be unlikely given the history and circumstances. I do agree with Marcus Noland if North Koreans were given a safe haven for dissent, the whole thing would blow up. That is one of the main differences with North Korea and the fall of the Eastern Bloc.

I agree with this - the populace of NK has been rendered incapable of open dissent by oppression and starvation.

You know, that was uncalled for. My apologies.

This was really nice of you and so rare in this place of carelessly thrown insults.

 

[Wok]

I agree with this - the populace of NK has been rendered incapable of open dissent by oppression and starvation.

That, and the unwillingness to pressure China, ROK, Japan and even the United States to better coordinate safe havens. China is the key since the vast majority of North Koreans trek there. However, China regularly repatriates them back into the lions' den. Once back, they are placed in a prison camp along with their families and/or executed in public.

If China did regularize the North Korean's status, it would be a big breakthrough. However, the other players need to stop being pussies and help make that happen.

 

[John Doe]

Selfish enough to realize that being a rich playboy in the West is a lot more fun than wielding supreme absolute power in a shithole country? Well, might be too much to hope for.

That depends where your interests lie.