Creating A New Civilization; Third Wave Politics

[amicus]

A book, by Alvin & Heidi Toffler, authors of "Future Shock"

Wall Street Journal: "brilliantly formulated, Powerful!"

The New York Times: "Sweeping synthesis...helps us face the future..."

According to the Tofflers, humanity has undergone two great waves of change: the first wave, the Agricultural Revolution, which took thousands of years to play out, and the second wave, the rise of Industrial Civilization, which took only about 300 years to mature.

The Third Wave is sweeping across history and will complete itself in a few decades with the accelerated pace of life in the computer age.

Third Wave nations sell information and management, culture and pop culture, advanced technology, software, education, training, medical care and financial and other services to the world.

The rapidly expanding Third Wave sector rises to dominance based on new ways in which it creates and exploits knowledge.

To condense the first few chapters, the Tofflers hold that the Agricultural wave, that lasted thousands of years, created a social system of power between nations based on agricultural production and all that, that entails, including trading and set the stage for conflict between these powerful agricultural nations that eventually led to conflict and colonization, a continual expansion of the most powerful.

The second wave, the Industrial revolution, re-shuffled the power base of nations to the degree that each individual nation embraced the new technology of mass production and distribution.

This of course led to conflict and expansion and world wars erupted, which again altered the balance of power between industrial nations, with the agricultural nations sinking into lethargy and conquest.

The waves existed and exist simultaneously as change and progress and innovation is always challenged by those entrenched and enriched by the previous wave.

The emerging third wave is also creating conflict between adherents to the previous two and is as yet, not understood by most.

"The Second Wave created mass societies that reflected and required mass production. In Third Wave, brain-based economies, mass production (which could almost be considered the defining mark of industrial society), is already an outmoded form. Der-massified production--short runs of highly customized product--is the new cutting edge of manufacture." "...Old industrial style behemoths collapse of their own mass and face destruction. Labor Unions in the mass manufacturing sector shrink. The mass media are de-massified in parallel with production and giant TV networks shrivel as new channels proliferate. The family system, too, becomes de-massified; the nuclear family, once the modern standard, becomes a minority form, while single parent households, remarried couples, childless families and live-alones proliferate."

~~~

I always have a point to my posts and my reference material and it is always the same point essentially, that of pointing out the futility of the 'usual suspects', here on the forum that are still entrenched in 'First Wave' politics, still yearning for an agricultural based society with strong rulers and harsh economic laws and controls.

They hate the second wave, industrial society, with mass production and they don't have a clue about the global third wave that is upon us.

They yearn for the pastoral sense of security and stagnant lack of change that provides one with a status and a class position within a fixed society.

They have replaced God, with Marx and the communal ethic, and have yet to discover the efficacy of individual freedom and market based economies and global free trade and competition of both products and ideas.

As each wave based evolution has involved violence and conflict, often on a global stage, so too, will this transition into a third wave world of the future.

Come along for the ride, folks, gonna be a bumpy one.

Amicus...

 

[Liar]

Still chasing the imaginary "usual suspects" ghost, I see. Eh well, it was to be expected, I guess. It wouldn't be an ami post without it.

So we've gone from industrial, process based economy to post industrial, information based economy? Color me surprised. Or not. Welcome to the 1990's.

The real mind-tickling thing about this day and age IMO is that we're rapidly moving away from an epistemic society and into a discoursive one. There's not One Truth and One System to fit into or else ye perish. (Communism and corporatism of the 20th century have both been as guilty of this) Opposing viewpoints are given merit and benefit of doubt instead of being precieved as threats. Every status quo from business models to family structures are challenged. Seems to be the case of every period of enlightement in history, and I think we're on the brink of yet another one. Or in the middle of it, but too busy talking to notice.

Your mistake is believing that you're the only one who gets it. And yet I see people here and elsewhere living it, especially the social aspect of this new era, while you're lambasting them for being stuck in the past.

 

[jomar]

That was a good book. I remember reading it 28 years ago.

 

[amicus]

Yes, Jomar, it is indeed vintage and has been in my library for many years.

My reason for referencing again at this late date, was merely to possibly provide a chronological trail for those interested to follow, as were my posts on Von Mises and De Jouvenal.

I find I have strayed far beyond the usual understanding of most here, except for a few intrepid souls that actually read and retain information and make connections.

Thus, a little dabble in the past where most of those who post here were still wearing flower leighs in their hair and smoking pot in the rain.

It is a good read and not something to necessarily believe in but to add to one's repertoire of the ideas of others explaining contemporary history, a very tricky thing to do as it changes so quickly.

Amicus...

 

[jomar]

I do get a kick out of the way you sling it.

As for the book, I recall really liking the concept (and imagery) of the 'waves' as a framework for viewing the tremendous changes. I also recall watching him give a lecture (on TV) on the book, complete with visual aides, made all the more profound and meaningful as I had smoked some pot. But it wasn't raining.

 

[amicus]

Yeah, but did you inhale, Bill?

chuckles...



ami

 

[voluptuary_manque]

Yeah, but did you inhale, Bill?

chuckles...



ami

I thought that title seemed familiar. More cash producing prognostication. "Futurists" are just psychics without the metaphysical horseshit. They use "scientific" horseshit instead. So the result is that they make more money. I suppose I can respect that, just don't expect me to believe it.

 

[amicus]

Not a thing to believe or not believe, VM. just grist for the mill as my creative writing prof used to say long ago.

98 out of a hundred people don't care a whit from whence they came or goeth and merely wish to remain as they are...it is for that two percent that actually use their minds that mind find the information of the Toffler's interesting and perhaps informative.

And...when you listen to all the people scream about outsourcing jobs from the US as being harmful to our economy, it is not, merely a part of the transition from one wave to the next.

ami

 

[My I]

I hear they're making a movie based on that book. It's supposed to hit theatres Dec. 22, 2012.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

AMICUS

The Usual Suspects are bitter, because when they see you they see the road not taken.

 

[jomar]

Yeah, but did you inhale, Bill?

chuckles...



ami

That depends on the definition of 'you', of course.

 

[amicus]

AMICUS

The Usual Suspects are bitter, because when they see you they see the road not taken.

~~~

Well, thank you, JBJ, (I think).

To carry on your analogy, I rather suspect the road they have taken crumbles behind them as they proceed and they have no way to retrace their journey into darkness.

Somehow fitting, doncha think?

Amicus...

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

AMICUS

The remark is intended as a compliment.

Sure! They get too far down the road and realize it was the wrong path, and theyre too lazy to start over.

 

[gauchecritic]

Well I don't know from waves but I do know that 'knowledge' and 'information' have to have a medium and those that control the medium control the message.

Computers and information highways are all very nice and shiny and englobing but who makes them?

So really we'll just have to hang on to the industrial wave in order to communicate and we may as well keep hold of the agricultural wave too in case we need to eat.

Or are you talking about where all the money goes? Well China obviously.

ETA Socialism. Capitalist lackeys. anti-globalist rant. etc etc

 

[amicus]

All three waves exist simultaneously, I would think. The difference is the agriculture is now not a major portion of the employment picture as it has been mechanized. Secondly, instead of importing raw materials to this country for manufacturing, we sent the technology abroad along with the innovations and in doing so began the journey for industrial nations to the next wave.

The manufacturing industry here, as exemplified by Detroit and American Iron and Steel, has gone to previously agricultural nations who are now beginning the industrial wave. The Unions of old, as Toffler said, are on the wane as they no longer serve a purpose.

It is an interesting area of thought, is it not?

amicus...

 

[Pure]

sounds like mostly horse pucky. how is the 'information age' of jobs shaping up in the US? Walmart. Dell Computers.

the vanished industrial production is simply moved to China. other than the computer elite-- for even programming jobs are being switched to India-- the jobs will be mostly "service sector." one of the few remaining US based "industries" is entertainment, NOT very labor intensive. actors, rock stars, major studios. international giants like Sony calling the shots (the results are watched on TVs that Sony has made in China.)

 

[amicus]

Listening to and watching the continuing interaction between the McCain camp and the Obama camp this morning on the news, all three cable channels during commercials, I had the thought that neither truly have a handle on the concept of the vast macro changes that are ongoing.

Politics, as usual, is far behind the curve, the cutting edge of innovations in science and technology, even industry and medicine. That is not a criticism, just an acknowledgment, as that is how is should be and must be by definition.

Not even the intellectuals, the non perverted ones, are cognizant of the changes either occurring or about to occur, as the invisible hand, millions strong, forges new directions inspired by individual and corporate inspiration, much of it experimental.

And while many look forward into the future with firm predictions as to the results of current, obvious policies, we really cannot foresee future events, I mean like who really knew the impact of computer science on the common man and the market place in general.

That is a partial reason why this poster advocates adherence to basic principles, individual rights and liberties and a free market place to continue the defense and protection of those basic truths that support the endeavor of all people everywhere.

Much of the time, perhaps most of the time, we really do not and perhaps can not understand the millions of small changes that take place in a free society and evolve and mutate before ever attracting attention of even the most astute observer.

As a caveat, it is not really a sin to hold on to the past, what we have learned and lived with as a way of life. However, as when the internal combustion engine replaced horsepower, there comes a time when the old ways must change and the new allowed to blossom.

The time of the Unions, of mass education and mass healthcare is over and done with, even though so many still advocate remaining in the past. Education should be computer driven and not in huge warehouses of children isolated from family. Medical care should be on a one to one basis, not the conveyor belt method we are drifting into.

Just some thoughts on an early, lovely morning out here in Oregon where the churds and birping and the sun is shining warmly.



Amicus....

 

[Selena_Kitt]

And we're supposedly in "third wave" feminism now... coincidence?

<---likes poking Ami...

 

[amicus]

Normally amiable amicus grunts at poke in ribs...

Female equality is a logical and necessary corollary to individual freedom and liberty and an extension of free market necessities as all aspects of the skills of humans are called upon and women have special skills that men do not.

However, like all innovations, it is met with resistance and reluctance. The third world Muslims have yet to undergo that particular mini wave of revolution but inevitably it will.

For Pure evil above you, the transition from agricultural to industrial, as it occured in England and America, displaced hundreds of thousands of agricultural workers from pastoral farming to bustling industrial centers and the left has still not accepted even the second wave of Toffler's concept.

They still emote the Dickensonian whines about children and factories and row houses and the whole farce made up and continued about the poor exploited working class, which in fact moved from poverty to middle class in less than a generation.

The 'new woman' has yet to complete the third wave transition and the world has yet to fully understand what this revolution will in fact entail as lifestyles and families change.

And, again, inevitably, this change brings pain and sorrow as new horizons open for the first time in human history.

Rather than yearn for the past as the left does, or remain bitter about the past as women do, why not face the future as an adventure and quit trying to recreate reality?

ami

 

[gauchecritic]

the whole farce made up and continued about the poor exploited working class, which in fact moved from poverty to middle class in less than a generation.

You really, really need to read The Ragged Trousered Philanthropists.

 

[Guest]

They have replaced God, with Marx and the communal ethic, and have yet to discover the efficacy of individual freedom and market based economies and global free trade and competition of both products and ideas.

Amicus...

OK, naive but serious question:

When in recorded human history have we tried "free" trade on any significant scale--trade that has not been regulated, to a greater or lesser degree, by chieftains, warlords, kings, emperors, churches, or elected governments in accordance with what they saw as the greater good or political expedience?

Just wondering.

 

[DarlingVivacia]

Little argument that we are on the verge of a new age, spurned in large part by the mobility that technology offers. Organizations are and will continue to flatten. Culturally, agile organizations will be more effective at imparting messages and making change than less flexible organizations. An example, would be Al Queda's ability to disseminate their vision to satellite clusters that are able to rally around a driving force and put plans into action.

This "Third Wave", similar to any wave has its pluses and minuses. When humanity is stripped of a functional need for community, we will seek it out in other venues. And seeking it out and connecting with these other outlets will take various forms. Take the rising interest in spirituality, and fundamental religion for example. Human beings derive meaning from our relationships to one and other and/or to a higher order. Institutions of the Industrial Age offered human beings an opportunity for connectivity as did the Agricultural age. If we are all floating in our own pods professionally, and are living less traditional family lives, we will crave more ritual and connection to satiate our base needs. (I read recently that evolutionary psychologists believe our need for community is greater than our need for sex.)

Additionally, people will hold tighter to older systems, as you said. And during the transition, the argument could be made that some of these old systems might need to be fortified and expanded until a more natural transition is possible. Case in point; universal health care. The system is so broken, that people are poorer for it psychically and physically. So, it may be that starting at point one, the development of a large hierarchical structure to ensure that all have coverage will provide people with more comfort during this period of great transition. A large system, built with the foresight to be slowly dismantled, into a vast network of health options and vouchers that can be managed on a smaller scale.

 

[ishtat]

This is an interesting thread. Amicus has made the point that some people and institutions unions for example have failed to adapt but I think it goes deeper than that . The information, computerised, highly mobile globalised economy age we live in points to further changes. Governments (Politicians) have a personal vested interest in existing institutions but here we are debating an issue with contributions from at least 3 continents in a highly globalised economy. Who is going to change these institutions, the politicians?

I'll cite an example. The EU was brought into being 60 years ago based on the tendancy of European Nation States to make war on each other. It was a first age problem magnified by the capacity of second wave industry to create fearsome war machines. Now the economies of Northern Europe at least are highly integrated; the societal values (whether you agree with them or not) have greatly converged. However the root of the problem, the nation state remains.

I think though I don't know how, that society's basic institutions are being slowly twisted and torn into new shapes by the economic globalisation and by major changes in society's values.

A couple of examples to debate perhaps

Northern Europe is post industrial and post religion

America is becoming post industrial but is not yet post religion. It is however further into the information revolution than Europe( especially southern)

The EU is already out dated and will fall over under its own weight within 20 years.

The old rhetoric of left v right socialist v capitalist is outdated . We only have to debate how capitalism works.(one for amicus perhaps?)

Haven't reached any final conclusions myself but much to think on.

 

[amicus]

DarlingV, Ishtat, thank you both for thoughtful and rational commentary it is most appreciated.

There are some very astute and professional people on this forum, HandPrints, TriSail, just to name a couple who seem to occupy a position of being able to function within the bubble of change or the froth of the wave, so to speak, and yet maintain a lifestyle that suits them. I think I envy that.

I declare our age to be the most unusual in all of human history and the most difficult to predict and guage future events.

There are many much more informed that I, yet I wonder if the totality of the global condition can truly be encompassed by one mind? Even if so, it would be a snapshot of a moment in time that is continuously moving and changing.

An interesting and thoughtful comment about the necessity of religion or perhaps, spirtuality, as traditional and conventional social structures weaken and fail; worthy of much thought.

Mainly I just wanted to express my gratitude for you time and comments, thank you again.



amicus...

 

[xssve]

I always have a point to my posts and my reference material and it is always the same point essentially, that of pointing out the futility of the 'usual suspects', here on the forum that are still entrenched in 'First Wave' politics, still yearning for an agricultural based society with strong rulers and harsh economic laws and controls.

They hate the second wave, industrial society, with mass production and they don't have a clue about the global third wave that is upon us.

They yearn for the pastoral sense of security and stagnant lack of change that provides one with a status and a class position within a fixed society.

Amicus...

C'mon, yer outta yer gourd - how many posters in here do you actually think are right wing evangelicals?