Political Intuition

[mellowgyrl]

What I'm afraid of is that there is much more lurking behind that curtain than we're aware of... and that we won't find it out until it's too late.

There's no way to see or know for sure what we're seeing is what we're going to get.

And that bad feeling I have? Makes me think there's something behind that curtain we just can't see...


btw, Roxy... I don't think the dems do any less in the orchestration dept... just for the record.

Isn't that the case with all 3 candidates? I'm not saying not to trust your instincts. I just don't think that should be the only factor. You think he's hiding some other secret agenda and that we'll all be doomed once January 2009 rolls around. But couldn't that be the same case for Hilary? For McCain?

 

[Stella_Omega]

And away we go . . .

"How dare you question the status quo! How dare you suggest that there might be different, better ways to do things! How dare you suggest that our statist world is not the best of all possible worlds! You obviously must only care about yourself. You obviously must not care about the Good Society. You obviously must not care if children die. You obviously must be - eee-vil."

As Cloudy said, I'm commenting on the visibility of your empathy.

 

[Stella_Omega]

Anatol Lieven, writing in the London Financial Times, points out that the the US has inserted itself into flashpoints the globe over, and that McCain does not have the ability to handle these situations wisely;

Mr McCain’s policies would not be so worrying were it not for his notorious quickness to fury in the face of perceived insults to himself or his country. Even Thad Cochran, a fellow Republican senator, has said: “I certainly know no other president since I’ve been here who’s had a temperament like that.”

For all his bellicosity, President George W. Bush has known how to deal cautiously and diplomatically with China and even Russia. Could we rely on Mr McCain to do the same?

 

[rgraham666]

I don't think anyone here thinks you're "evil," but rather that you have very little empathy for those less well off than you.

One gets the sense that you've never had to do without a day in your life.

Good and evil don't enter into Roxanne's thoughts.

Being right about everything is far more important in her estimation. If that means people get hurt, that's something she's willing to live with.

 

[rgraham666]

Government and business are just tools. And like all tools have no ethical qualities what so ever. What they accomplish is dependent entirely on the people that use them.

Which ultimately is we the people.

I argue about which tool is appropriate for the job at hand. Most people argue about the ethics of the tool.

No wonder we don't accomplish much.

 

[Jenny_Jackson]

I've had a weird feeling about Obama from the very start. Then when he said, in effect, "If I don't get the nomination, I'm taking the black voters with me."

First, that sounds like blackmail. Second, a CBS poll that came out yesterday said 20% of Obama supporters would not vote for Clinton if Obama was not nominated. Let me see... figuring... That works out to 752,000 votes.

But the same poll said if Clinton didn't get the vote there would be 37% of women who would not vote for him... That's 1,388,000. Hmmm... I don't think that kind of blackmail is working, Barak.

 

[Belegon]

I've had a weird feeling about Obama from the very start. Then when he said, in effect, "If I don't get the nomination, I'm taking the black voters with me."

First, that sounds like blackmail. Second, a CBS poll that came out yesterday said 20% of Obama supporters would not vote for Clinton if Obama was not nominated. Let me see... figuring... That works out to 752,000 votes.

But the same poll said if Clinton didn't get the vote there would be 37% of women who would not vote for him... That's 1,388,000. Hmmm... I don't think that kind of blackmail is working, Barak.

Please source such quotes.

 

[Jenny_Jackson]

Now that you ask... This is one article that points out what Obama is talking about. http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/17/poll.blacks.democrats/index.html. If you want, I can find 20 more.

Face it. Obama is slipping now that people are actually looking at him as a candidate rather than the "darling of the media." Last night even Leno turned on him. I LMAO.

 

[mellowgyrl]

Now that you ask... This is one article that points out what Obama is talking about. http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/17/poll.blacks.democrats/index.html. If you want, I can find 20 more.

Face it. Obama is slipping now that people are actually looking at him as a candidate rather than the "darling of the media." Last night even Leno turned on him. I LMAO.

I didn't see anything about Obama threatening to take the black votes. And, wasn't that article from October of 2007? I totallyl understand that you don't like the dude Jenny. I respect that.

 

[rgraham666]

I find it rather sad that the people most interested and concerned about removing the current administration are too busy ripping bleeding chunks out of each other than their common opponent.

 

[Jenny_Jackson]

I didn't see anything about Obama threatening to take the black votes. And, wasn't that article from October of 2007? I totallyl understand that you don't like the dude Jenny. I respect that.

Then look here. This one is from today.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/26/poll-democrats-ready-to-defect-to-mccain/

Edit: And another from Reuters today http://www.reuters.com/article/blog...rAA&bbParentWidgetId=B7tmRCRJt2YFzDsa7MJ1CblL

 

[Selena_Kitt]

Isn't that the case with all 3 candidates? I'm not saying not to trust your instincts. I just don't think that should be the only factor. You think he's hiding some other secret agenda and that we'll all be doomed once January 2009 rolls around. But couldn't that be the same case for Hilary? For McCain?

Yes, of course. It probably is.

But the bad feeling I've got is about Obama. It's just a personal feeling, it's nothing I can rationalize, as I said. It's just an intuition.

*shrug*

 

[DeeZire]

Back to the intuition thing - it was intuition that propelled Bush into the Whitehouse; the old 'who-would-you-rather-have-a-beer-with' approach to voting.

If people want to base their voting decisions on intuition, they deserve the candidate they're voting for, regardless of how unqualified that candidate is. The only problem with that is, the rest of us have to live with that candidate for 4 more years, or until the rat bastard is impeached.

 

[Stella_Omega]

Then look here. This one is from today.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/26/poll-democrats-ready-to-defect-to-mccain/

yeah, that article quotes Obama saying he'll take the black vote with him, all right. Okay, Jenny, point made.
</sarcasm>

Back to the intuition thing - it was intuition that propelled Bush into the Whitehouse; the old 'who-would-you-rather-have-a-beer-with' approach to voting.

If people want to base their voting decisions on intuition, they deserve the candidate they're voting for, regardless of how unqualified that candidate is. The only problem with that is, the rest of us have to live with that candidate for 4 more years, or until the rat bastard is impeached.

If this country votes intuitively then it won't be my country much longer. I'd have to live somewhere where I stand a chance of respecting my neighbours.

 

[Jenny_Jackson]

yeah, that article quotes Obama saying he'll take the black vote with him, all right. Okay, Jenny, point made.
</sarcasm>
If this country votes intuitively then it won't be my country much longer. I'd have to live somewhere where I stand a chance of respecting my neighbours.

The problem, Stella, is that people do vote for the damnest things. Intuition is only one. I was told in a political Sci class years ago JFK was elected because women liked his hair. It's a known fact that sitting presidents have an advantage because they campaign in Air Force One. People are impressed. Why? That is just a fucking Boing 747.

I have yet to figure out who votes on the issues. It's obvious that this nomination will be made by the "superdelegates" who will chose based on the "most electable" candidate. What does that have to do with issues?

 

[oggbashan]

In the UK most voters are effectively disenfranchised because of voting patterns.

Where I live it doesn't matter which way I vote because the Conservative candidate will win. He has a large majority and even a heavy slump in Conservative support won't change the result.

In most Parliamentary seats the result can be just as predictable. The seat is guaranteed to be either Labour, or Conservative, or a very few Liberal Democrat.

The few seats that have low majorities will decide who forms the next government. In those so-called marginal seats a change of 7,500 votes would alter the colour of the next government. If you don't live in one of those marginals you might as well vote for The Raving Monster Loony Party - you won't change anything.

The majority of voters will vote as they always have done no matter who the candidate is.

Those who vote on intuition on the day, or those that decide at the last minute not to vote at all - they are the ones that change governments.

Og

 

[manyeyedhydra]

In the UK most voters are effectively disenfranchised because of voting patterns.

Where I live it doesn't matter which way I vote because the Conservative candidate will win. He has a large majority and even a heavy slump in Conservative support won't change the result.

In most Parliamentary seats the result can be just as predictable. The seat is guaranteed to be either Labour, or Conservative, or a very few Liberal Democrat.

The few seats that have low majorities will decide who forms the next government. In those so-called marginal seats a change of 7,500 votes would alter the colour of the next government. If you don't live in one of those marginals you might as well vote for The Raving Monster Loony Party - you won't change anything.

The majority of voters will vote as they always have done no matter who the candidate is.

Those who vote on intuition on the day, or those that decide at the last minute not to vote at all - they are the ones that change governments.

Og

My intuition is that the BNP (British Fascist Idiot Party) is going to start doing depressingly well soon in the UK as there are whole chunks of the British populace that aren't represented by anyone.

Some little precious made the blindingly obvious observation that most of the high level positions in Britain in the media, judiciary and political classes were dominated by Oxbridge graduates and whether this was a good thing. Well, no obviously, d'uh...

It's quite worrying to look at all the major parties and realise there isn't anyone worthy of running a small company let alone a whole nation. The situation is even worse now that they've simply staffed the House of lords with their mates as Og pointed out earlier.

The US situation is hardly better.

You've got the guy that basically seems decent, but is representing a party that has basically been a parody of itself for the past 10 years and really needs to be kicked into touch for a while to relearn some manners.

You've got the woman who's far too much of a political animal to be anywhere near trustworthy.

Then you've got the kid no one really knows about, but a lot of people are clinging to in worshipful hope simply because he isn't one of the other two. Could be amazing, could be hopeless, no one really knows.

My intuition told me I shouldn't be in either the US or the UK for the next four years.

 

[neonlyte]

Anatol Lieven, writing in the London Financial Times, points out that the the US has inserted itself into flashpoints the globe over, and that McCain does not have the ability to handle these situations wisely;

Mr McCain’s policies would not be so worrying were it not for his notorious quickness to fury in the face of perceived insults to himself or his country. Even Thad Cochran, a fellow Republican senator, has said: “I certainly know no other president since I’ve been here who’s had a temperament like that.”

For all his bellicosity, President George W. Bush has known how to deal cautiously and diplomatically with China and even Russia. Could we rely on Mr McCain to do the same?

Anyone who has made it to McCain's age, knows a thing or two about handling situations. As for fury... I'd rather have furious US President thump the table and have the 'other side' feel threatened, than suffer the insidious double dealing and lying that brought on board the Iraq fiasco.

 

[only_more_so]

I'm going to scare the $&*@$#@!% out of the rational thinkers around here with this, but... *deep breath* here goes anyway...

I do almost everything intuitively... and that includes voting. I don't discount rational argument, and I do pay attention to the issues and what's important to me, but I have a tendency to follow my intuition, even if it goes against the above...

Since the minute Obama came onto the scene, I've had this funny feeling about him. I feel wary... I don't trust him. There feels like there's something going on under there that we're not seeing. I get a "Don't look at the man behind the curtain" sort of feeling... best I can describe...

I've been talking to people lately about politics... and the democratic choice keeps coming up, of course... and I've recently run into a few other intuitives who have had the same sort of "bad feeling" about him. Which perked up my antennae...

So I thought I'd put it out there... anyone else have this feeling? (I know Imp said she felt the opposite... so I'm not discounting that side of intuition either, of course ) I just want to know if there are others out there who have this "Yeah it all sounds good, but I can't quite put my finger on why it's really not..." feeling they're carrying around about this guy?

Or is it just me?

Actually, intuition is often based on subconscious evaluations. There is a good treatment of this in the book "The Wisdom of Crowds" where it talks about people making snap decisions based on what seems to be little information. In truth their subconscious minds cranks on more information than they can consciously decipher. So if your "intuition" about people is generally correct, then I would guess your impression of Obama is correct.

I have a bad feeling in general about this election. Actually, I have a bad feeling about this year as a whole, especially as regards to China.

 

[Roxanne Appleby]

Anyone who has made it to McCain's age, knows a thing or two about handling situations. As for fury... I'd rather have furious US President thump the table and have the 'other side' feel threatened, than suffer the insidious double dealing and lying that brought on board the Iraq fiasco.

Although most people arrived at McCain's age didn't spend six years getting tortured by evil prison guards along the way - that concerns me a bit. Frankly, if I lived in Hanoi I might want be concerned about one of those 10 million degree heat waves under a McCain prez. You know, if someone flashes the red queen at him or something.

 

[Stella_Omega]

Although most people arrived at McCain's age didn't spend six years getting tortured by evil prison guards along the way - that concerns me a bit. Frankly, if I lived in Hanoi I might want be concerned about one of those 10 million degree heat waves under a McCain prez. You know, if someone flashes the red queen at him or something.

My intuition says... It's not something I want to risk having happen.

 

[shereads]

If it makes you feel better about Obama, think about this:

President McCain.
Vice President Doctor Condoleeza Rice.

 

[shereads]

NBC poll revealed that 3 out of 4 Americans have no idea how many of us have died in Iraq.

THAT's scary.

 

[cheerful_deviant]

NBC poll revealed that 3 out of 4 Americans have no idea how many of us have died in Iraq.

THAT's scary.

No, what's scary is that seventy-five percent of Americans in a poll were unable to locate Israel on a map of the Middle East.

The fact that 3 out of 4 don't know how many have died is both sad and tragic.

 

[Stella_Omega]

NBC poll revealed that 3 out of 4 Americans have no idea how many of us have died in Iraq.

THAT's scary.

I didn't know actual people died in Iraq, they keep saying "Troops".

Casualties, fifty troops.

Fifty young American men died.

What's the diff, huh?