You won’t like this….just sayin’

[HisArpy]

The markets are starting to realize this. Lower inflation….markets are smelling the animal spirits. Markets are going higher. Nothing stops this train. Jump in while you can.

This is what leads to a market meltdown.

 

[ADIDAS00]

This is what leads to a market meltdown.

Are you sure you don’t mean a market melt up?

Sentiment is still so bad. Everyone is still in the “Trump is killing the economy” mindset. No euphoria to be found….yet

 

[ll74]

The market return this year will be shit compared to previous years. That happens when you spend 6 months recovering.

Luckily, my retirement is invested internationally

 

[ADIDAS00]

The market return this year will be shit compared to previous years. That happens when you spend 6 months recovering.

Luckily, my retirement is invested internationally

I think you’re letting your political bias cloud your financial intelligence.

Don’t worry, you’re not the only one

 

[ll74]

I think you’re letting your political bias cloud your financial intelligence.

Nope. Good market years hover around 11% for Sp500. We'll be lucky to hit 6% this year

Don’t worry, you’re not the only one

You ignoring 6 months of loss and ignoring the pathetic return YTD isn't my issue

 

[heathrowinneo]

Another down month for inflation…tariffs just aren’t causing inflation to go higher. I know you’re perplexed.

How could it not go higher? All the experts and text books said it would go higher. The math said it would be higher!!

It’s just not going to be a thing. Tariffs just aren’t going to move the needle for higher for inflation. We’re going to get roughly $40 billion a month in tariffs and the inflation needle isn’t going to move. The experts and the textbooks were wrong. Sorry, It happens

The markets are starting to realize this. Lower inflation….markets are smelling the animal spirits. Markets are going higher. Nothing stops this train. Jump in while you can.

how many trade deals have been completed? there are three partial, not completed deals with china, vietnam and the uk. tariffs have been on again-off again, high rates-low rates-no rates. if and when cogent trade agreements are negotiated with trading partners, then more of an understanding and finality will come about. the threats for 50% on copper and 200% on pharmaceuticals will do more harm than good to the american consumer, if they come about.

I'm more interested in what happens if and when the trade deals are done. Give it a few quarters. whatever happens, it's completely on trump's watch. tariffs are going to cost money and the importing company pays the tariff. and those increased costs will be passed along to the american consumer.

the losses in the markets are trump's as well. the market is/has recovered but you also need to take into account the lost opportunity costs that was squandered. most portfolio's have recovered but they would have been better off if the liberation day did not happen.

 

[ADIDAS00]

Nope. Good market years hover around 11% for Sp500. We'll be lucky to hit 6% this year


You ignoring 6 months of loss and ignoring the pathetic return YTD isn't my issue

If I had a Time Machine and brought you into the future and showed you how much the market went up, and then took you back to present day, you still wouldn’t buy the market because trump is president.

It’s so weird.

 

[ll74]

If I had a Time Machine and brought you into the future and showed you how much the market went up, and then took you back to present day, you still wouldn’t buy the market because trump is president.

It’s so weird.

The market is still recovering from the losses.

Sadly, you don't understand that.

My financial advisor still has money in international markets because domestic markets aren't returning $$ enough to warrant it.

 

[ADIDAS00]

Nope. Good market years hover around 11% for Sp500. We'll be lucky to hit 6% this year


You ignoring 6 months of loss and ignoring the pathetic return YTD isn't my issue

Dude, the decline in 2022 didn’t hit all time highs again until 2024. Thats 2 years. Why wasn’t everyone screaming it’s uncle Joes fault?

 

[ll74]

Dude, the decline in 2022 didn’t hit all time highs again until 2024. Thats 2 years. Why wasn’t everyone screaming it’s uncle Joes fault?

The sp500 hit 57 record highs in 2024.

 

[ADIDAS00]

The sp500 hit 57 record highs in 2024.

and what was the market yearly return in 2022? ….. -27% ouch!!! It took the whole next year just to break even

But let’s focus on 2024. Ha!

 

[ll74]

and what was the market yearly return in 2022? ….. -27% ouch!!! It took the whole next year just to break even

But let’s focus on 2024. Ha!

So you're literally comparing the current state of things to a bad market as an example of a strong market?

Is that correct?

Maybe bring up 2008 to show how strong the market is now

2020?

 

[ADIDAS00]

So you're literally comparing the current state of things to a bad market as an example of a strong market?

Is that correct?

Maybe bring up 2008 to show how strong the market is now

2020?

2020 was actually a great year. 17% up. The money printer kicked on and assets rocketed

 

[ll74]

2020 was actually a great year. 17% up. The money printer kicked on and assets rocketed

You're saying that this year is good compared to other years which are bad and saying that this year is strong.

What part of that are you failing to comprehend?

 

[ll74]

2020 was actually a great year. 17% up. The money printer kicked on and assets rocketed

Let's do this - what do you consider to be the best years.for the stock market? Once you have that answer, how does this year's market compare so far?

 

[ADIDAS00]

Let's do this - what do you consider to be the best years.for the stock market? Once you have that answer, how does this year's market compare so far?

So if by year end we’re up 15%, will you concede it was a good year?

 

[ll74]

So if by year end we’re up 15%, will you concede it was a good year?

I'm asking you to compare it to what you consider to be a good year for the market.

Instead of comparing it, as you have been, to what you consider to be a bad year for the market.

 

[ADIDAS00]

I'm asking you to compare it to what you consider to be a good year for the market.

Instead of comparing it, as you have been, to what you consider to be a bad year for the market.

15% would be a good year for the market. Anything above 10% would be pretty good actually.

 

[HisArpy]

Are you sure you don’t mean a market melt up?

Sentiment is still so bad. Everyone is still in the “Trump is killing the economy” mindset. No euphoria to be found….yet

No, I meant meltdown.

Every stratospheric rise in the market has been followed by an equally rapid descent. Today's "rocket to the moon" thinking that the market can only go up, is perpetuated by those who know little to nothing of finance and the market's history.

Economically, we are much better off with a market that doesn't move much in price per share, but which pays good dividends that meet expectations and analyst forecasts. This gives a good rate of return on investment which is good for corporations because it attracts long term investors instead of speculators and short sellers. It stabilizes the bond market too, which is good for consumer interest rates.

 

[ll74]

15% would be a good year for the market. Anything above 10% would be pretty good actually.

I asked you to discuss a good market year to compare it to.

Seems like that is difficult for you to do.

 

[ADIDAS00]

No, I meant meltdown.

Every stratospheric rise in the market has been followed by an equally rapid descent. Today's "rocket to the moon" thinking that the market can only go up, is perpetuated by those who know little to nothing of finance and the market's history.

Economically, we are much better off with a market that doesn't move much in price per share, but which pays good dividends that meet expectations and analyst forecasts. This gives a good rate of return on investment which is good for corporations because it attracts long term investors instead of speculators and short sellers. It stabilizes the bond market too, which is good for consumer interest rates.

The plan is debasement of the dollar. We have too much debt to pay off. You have to debase the currency the debt is in to make it all work.

Adding liquidity is the other part of the plan. They just passed the bill that adds 3.5 trillion.

I get the whole “paying dividends is better”. It’s not about what’s better. It’s about what’s actually happening.

Don’t be in cash and forget your politics. This is a melt up!

 

[ADIDAS00]

Everyone is still waiting for the crash. That means we go up. Once everyone is euphoric, that will be when the crash happens. Were not even close.

 

[ll74]

9D chess!

 

[Hel_Books]

The plan is debasement of the dollar. We have too much debt to pay off. You have to debase the currency the debt is in to make it all work.

Did hyperinflation work for all those South American banana republics?

 

[ADIDAS00]

Did hyperinflation work for all those South American banana republics?

It’s a slow debasement of currency. We’ve been doing it for years. Both parties. It’s nothing new

It started after 2008. We outlawed depressions and just slowly printed money and debased the dollar. It helps with the debt and makes markets go up and everyone’s happy.

The market has went up on average about 8% -10% a year since 2008…which is roughly the same as actual inflation. 401K’s are now basically savings accounts so you don’t erode your purchasing power. Holding cash is no bueno. Nothing stops this debasement train.