Trump fucks up again. Ukraine negotiation goes sideways

[ChloeTzang]

Zelensky has had his way....it's a good deal for both Ukraine and the USA

Lessons: pushing back works. Ukraine gets a good reconstruction deal, nothing remotely close to the extortion first proposed by Trump. The US caved (thank goodness). Symbolically positive for bilateral relationship. But-still no security guarantees, but includes provision for military aid from USA

 

[butters]

Ukraine and U.S sign rare earth(+) deal that sees a lot of gains for Ukraine and some concessions

The deal gives the US preferential rights to mineral extraction in Ukraine and states that Kyiv will have the final say in what and where is being mined. Ukraine will also retain the ownership of the subsoil.

“All resources on our territory and in our territorial waters belong to Ukraine. It is the Ukrainian state that determines where and what to extract,” said Ukraine’s Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, who signed the deal on behalf her country.

• the deal also adopts a strong language on the war with Russia itself. It points at Moscow as the aggressor in the conflict
• the goal of the agreement as “a peaceful, sovereign and resilient Ukraine” – a notable step away from Trump saying earlier this year that, “Ukraine may be Russia some day.”
• door open for Ukraine’s potential future membership in the European Union
• Ukraine has dropped its key demand that the US provides security guarantees as part of this agreement ... but given the investments and future business interests now of the US in Ukraine's resources, it is likely that the US will be more aligned to preserving Ukraine's security against Russia
• US has preferential rights but not necessarily 'exclusive' rights

The deal is limited to new projects, which means the US and Ukraine will have to invest in order to see profits. Existing mining operations that are already generating revenue for the Ukrainian government are excluded.

Existing mines being excluded means investment by both the US and Ukraine to expand the operations; trump won't want to see any new money-makers in Ukraine at threat from Russian bombing... and though some initiatives may be fast to start up, others (like the rare earth mining) will take years to get going, needing to go through a whole lot of processes such as determining sources, the costs of mining at which depths and so on and so on. This alone adds stability to the notion of security via the US.

now, how about Crimea? Will trump still be 'demanding' that Ukraine simply give up on it and hand it over to Russia?

 

[Lazaran]

Ukraine and U.S sign rare earth(+) deal that sees a lot of gains for Ukraine and some concessions

• the deal also adopts a strong language on the war with Russia itself. It points at Moscow as the aggressor in the conflict
• the goal of the agreement as “a peaceful, sovereign and resilient Ukraine” – a notable step away from Trump saying earlier this year that, “Ukraine may be Russia some day.”
• door open for Ukraine’s potential future membership in the European Union
• Ukraine has dropped its key demand that the US provides security guarantees as part of this agreement ... but given the investments and future business interests now of the US in Ukraine's resources, it is likely that the US will be more aligned to preserving Ukraine's security against Russia
• US has preferential rights but not necessarily 'exclusive' rights

Existing mines being excluded means investment by both the US and Ukraine to expand the operations; trump won't want to see any new money-makers in Ukraine at threat from Russian bombing... and though some initiatives may be fast to start up, others (like the rare earth mining) will take years to get going, needing to go through a whole lot of processes such as determining sources, the costs of mining at which depths and so on and so on. This alone adds stability to the notion of security via the US.

now, how about Crimea? Will trump still be 'demanding' that Ukraine simply give up on it and hand it over to Russia?

Ukraine made DonOld back down. The mineral deal looks like what President Biden was working on.





Ukraine will NEVER cede Crimea to Russia, but DonOld has basically recognized it as "Russian territory" already.



We. Told. Them. So.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

The U.S. will no longer act as a mediator in efforts to end the war in Ukraine, says State Dept. spokesperson Tammy Bruce.“We’ll continue to help, but we won’t be flying around the world to mediate every meeting. It’s now up to the two sides.”

Given Trump's attitude and views on Ukraine, this can only be a net positive. As lomg as the US provides intelligence and sells weapons, Ukraone can now get on with defeatimg Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918214336591622440

 

[ll74]

The U.S. will no longer act as a mediator in efforts to end the war in Ukraine, says State Dept. spokesperson Tammy Bruce.“We’ll continue to help, but we won’t be flying around the world to mediate every meeting. It’s now up to the two sides.”

Given Trump's attitude and views on Ukraine, this can only be a net positive. As lomg as the US provides intelligence and sells weapons, Ukraone can now get on with defeatimg Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918214336591622440

On
Day
One

 

[ChloeTzang]

On
Day
One

Yeah, well, that one went out the window. This proved to be a little more challenging than Donnie thought. He'd have done better just shipping Ukraine a 1000 Bradleys and all the old 155mm guns in storage plus a couple of hundred extra Abrams. And F16's of course. Ah well.

 

[Rightguide]

Other way around. Ukrainian artillery strength is surpassing Russia. They are outbuilding Russia with their Bohdans, they have artillery superiority in most areas of the front now and when a Russian gun pops up, it meets Ukranian drones. Ukie artillery is more accurate and generally out-ranges Russia, and is modern - Russia is increasingly reliant on old 50's and 60's towed guns and theyre not very accurate. As for drones, 80-85% of the Russian casualties are from drones....it's augmenting and superceding artillery, both, and the SZU has land drones coming in increasing numbers too. And the ZSU's drone units and getting bigger and better and are being equipped with more and more drones with a range of capabilities.

That is all fantasy, Chloe. Look at the front, the line of contact. Who is losing ground on a daily basis? Where have the Ukrainians changed the map in the last two years? Why is Zelensky throwing his 80,000 recruitment personnel into the line? Who will be doing the recruiting and the kidnapping of new recruits when they are gone? All Zelensky has left is a glorified terror campaign.

 

[Politruk]

That is all fantasy, Chloe. Look at the front, the line of contact. Who is losing ground on a daily basis? Where have the Ukrainians changed the map in the last two years? Why is Zelensky throwing his 80,000 recruitment personnel into the line? Who will be doing the recruiting and the kidnapping of new recruits when they are gone? All Zelensky has left is a glorified terror campaign.

If Putin has no reason to back down, and certainly Zelenskyy cannot without giving up his country entirely, how is Trump supposed to end the war by negotiation like he promised? The only way a negotiated peace can be achieved is if the U.S. gives Ukraine enough help to put Russia on the ropes.

 

[MajorRewrite]

That is all fantasy, Chloe. Look at the front, the line of contact. Who is losing ground on a daily basis? Where have the Ukrainians changed the map in the last two years? Why is Zelensky throwing his 80,000 recruitment personnel into the line? Who will be doing the recruiting and the kidnapping of new recruits when they are gone? All Zelensky has left is a glorified terror campaign.

Is that the official take from Moscow, Comrade RightGuide?

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

 

[ChloeTzang]

That is all fantasy, Chloe. Look at the front, the line of contact. Who is losing ground on a daily basis? Where have the Ukrainians changed the map in the last two years? Why is Zelensky throwing his 80,000 recruitment personnel into the line? Who will be doing the recruiting and the kidnapping of new recruits when they are gone? All Zelensky has left is a glorified terror campaign.

Losing ground? That's tactical. The ZSU is not making Hitler's mistake and holding the line come what may. They're fighting intelligently, trading space for dead Russians and retaking positions where it's opportune. Where they need to give, they give. The aim is to maximize dead Orcs and minimize dead Ukrainians, and the casualty ratio is increasingly better for the ZSU. Recruiting is a Russian red herring. Sure they have manpower issues - and sure a lot of Ukrainians took the chicken run, but they're cleaning up their recruiting and recruiting more, shifting soldiers aroiund, improving incentives and training and they increasingy have the battlefield advantage. They won;t attack again until they are completely ready - 2023 gave them a lesson in that and to ignore NATO doctrine, which is now obsolete in the face of drones.

Russia is making gains by an unrelenting effort to throw whatever men they have available into the meatgrinder. They can keep it up this year, and likely into 2026, but 2026 is when they run out of steam, with no guns left, no tanks left and no IFV's left. 50% of their ammo now is coming from North Korea. Soldiers are being sent forward without weapons and told to pick them up from the dead en route to the front. 80% of soldiers moving up are being culled before they get near the battle zone, and they're almost always doing the last 20-40kms on foot as their transport is taken out. When they do attack, some Russian commanders are executing anyone who comes back unwounded - doing the Ukrainians job for them. Now, the Russians are running down on tanks, armor and guns. What we see now is largely old shit. They're firing around 600k artillery shells a month - as of now, Ukraine has parity (my next post).

Ukraine is building new guns, IFV's are not quite pouring off the production lines, but they are rolling out in growing quantity. They are piecing together things like M113's from pieces and parts, Canada for example a few months ago donated 29 M113 chassis and 64 Coyote chassis to Ukraine from CAF inventory. You can bet those are probably already refurbished, rebuilt and in use. Ukraine is really only gearimg up now - it takes a long time to scale up or build production lines from scratch but they are there now and getting more and more equipment, and more and more drones. Millions of drones, thousands of long range drones and thousands of their own cruise missiles.

Russian logistics is also taking a hammering and that will get worse as Ukraine focuses in o the rail system, which is the core of Russian logistics.

As for atillery shells....next post.

But the long and the short of it is that 2025 is, to quote Winston Churchill, "The Turning of the Tide." Putin is a dead man walking and at this point, there is nothing Russia can do to win this war. The onluy real question is, how badly do they lose, and can Trump pull their bacon out of the fire - and does he even want to.

 

[eric_erosfan]

That is all fantasy, Chloe. Look at the front, the line of contact. Who is losing ground on a daily basis? Where have the Ukrainians changed the map in the last two years? Why is Zelensky throwing his 80,000 recruitment personnel into the line? Who will be doing the recruiting and the kidnapping of new recruits when they are gone? All Zelensky has left is a glorified terror campaign.

Takes a special breed of anti-American asshole to cheer on Russia and hope the little guys get crushed.

 

[Politruk]

Soldiers are being sent forward without weapons and told to pick them up from the dead en route to the front.

Hmm. I remember that from Enemy at the Gates.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Hmm. I remember that from Enemy at the Gates.

Ahhhh, Russia. Bringing back the good old days......

 

[ChloeTzang]

Takes a special breed of anti-American asshole to cheer on Russia and hope the little guys get crushed.

Oh, no. I know a couple of ex-US Army officers who were convinced Russia was going to win for the first couple of years, for purely military assessment type reasons, and they had a point. We don't know all the little bits and pieces and the manpower thing IS a valid concern. It's good to argue these things through.

And I'm no military guru. I reads the articles and the news and the posts and I talks to people and I listens and I kind of merge it altogether to come to my own conclusions and make my own assessments but I could be wrong too. I tend to rely heavily on the guys like Mick Ryan and others who know their stuff and try and stay unbiased in their assessments, if not their views.

But I will say you have to look beyond the frontline at the broader situation. The Trump Administration does pose a serious threat to Ukraine which is why bringing Trump onside and giving him a win with the minerals deal was important. It's extortion, yes, but you gotta play the cards they way they come up, and Trump was/is an unfortunatre wildcard here that has to be taken into account. That he seems to be onside for now stregthens Ukraine's position. That he's backimg away from negotiations is even better.

 

[Politruk]

Does it not remain true, that Ukraine will run out of troops before Russia does?

 

[ChloeTzang]

How to negotiate with Russians

 

[eric_erosfan]

Does it not remain true, that Ukraine will run out of troops before Russia does?

That is why Ukraine has needed to fight smarter.

Without help Hitler would have established the German Republic, and the Nazi flag would still be flying over most of Europe.

Rightguide and those that smell like him would have cheered on Hitler's conquest.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Does it not remain true, that Ukraine will run out of troops before Russia does?

If you look at it as a straight out war of attrition, yes, but this is where all those other factors come in

- Ukraine is currently fighting a strategically defensive battle whle going on the tactical offensive now and then - Kursk for example. Maximizes Russian loses while minimizig their own
- ZSU is trained and their training is constantly improving. Russian Army is a rabble with minimal training and most of their trained soldiers and training cadre are gone gone gone
- Drones - huge advantage to Ukraine
- Artillery - shifting to Ukraine
- Armor and IFV's - shifting to Ukraine
- Air War - advantage Ukraine
- Naval War - Ukraine has won
- Missile War - Draw. Russia is wasting missiles on civilian targets. Good. Ukraine is building up.
- Economic War - advantage Ukraine (backed by EU and Japan). Russia has higher inflation, exporte earnings hit, industry slowly collapsing

Troops - one small facet of the war. Ukraine has more manpower it can mobilize if needed

And an addnl comment - this new Ukrainian points systems is apparently inspiring ZSU units to bop more Russians - in some cases it's scaled up by 2 or 3 times. There are now real advantages to Ukrainian units to kill more Russians - when they do, they get more goodies to kill EVEN MORE Russians. Bonus!

 

[ChloeTzang]

That is why Ukraine has needed to fight smarter.

Without help Hitler would have established the German Republic, and the Nazi flag would still be flying over most of Europe.

Rightguide and those that smell like him would have cheered on Hitler's conquest.

I wouldnt say that. More of a "it's not our war" view, which is shared by a LOT of Americans.

Incorrect of course. The Budapest Agreement made it our war - altho we're busy proving no-one should sign agreemnts with the USA, but whatever

 

[Politruk]

Without help Hitler would have established the German Republic, and the Nazi flag would still be flying over most of Europe.

Russia was just too big for Germany to conquer. Stalin would have won if he had to fight alone.

 

[butters]

Does it not remain true, that Ukraine will run out of troops before Russia does?
The US now has a vested interest in protecting its future assets in Ukraine... putin's not too happy about that


Russian State TV Says Nuclear Strike Would Turn US Into 'Waterworld'
to be fair, this was in response to john kennedy's stupid comment:

"I think he thinks we're afraid of him," the Louisiana senator said of the Russian leader. "He has jacked around President Trump at every turn. He has disrespected our president [...]

not that bit ^^
this part:

"I don't think it's going to get any better until we make it clear to Mr. Putin that we are willing to turn him and his country into fish food."

kennedy also described trump's great bud, vlad as 'a gangster'

the russian state tv host, a fierce defender of the Kremlin and putin, fired back with this delightful little parry:

"In his time, academic Sakharov proposed the following, our colleagues know this, but since Trump and his comrades are watching and translating us, I will explain it for their sake. He proposed a plan to blow up two nukes [...], hydrogen bombs, either way they are thermonuclear, blow them up near the two coasts of the United States.

"The oncoming wave of a radioactive tsunami will turn the United States into sort of a Waterworld, as it was later depicted by Hollywood. The strait that would be created in the process would be named in honor of comrade Stalin."

 

[Bray123]

It didn't take long after getting Zelenskyy to sign the minerals deal for the Glorious Supreme Leader of the World to give up on the easy peace deal.

 

[butters]

and now trump's flapping again... not sure how much (or any) of this is due to putin grabbing some of Ukraine's rare earth, but trump bends whichever way the wind's blowing:

He went on to blame Ukraine, which Russia invaded over three years ago, sparking the war, for the situation. "I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America. HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!"