LLCox
wall flower
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2019
- Posts
- 6,657
What I've seen is a few things:
1. People expected a recession in 2023 that never happened
2. People have been waiting for an interest rate cut that hasn't happened
3. People have been expecting a massive default on loans due to high inflation and interest rates that hasn't happened.
As for another financial crisis, there will inevitably be a rebalancing of real estate investors who have been screwed by work situations change. Whether that shock results in a crisis will depend on the Fed's response and government involvement.
The recession has been kept at bay with a huge amount of FED/Treasury money printing bailing out banks and businesses. Also with increased credit card holder debt allowances.
FED chair Powell is trapped and can not cut rates even if he wanted to.
There IS a massive default on loans going on but again the financial institutions are being bailed out by the Fed opening new loan windows for Big Biz and banks. Also a lot of delinquent loans are not being called in by the banks because then THEY owe the property taxes etc.
The question is how long can all this go on before something breaks. The Black Swan is out there.
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