What happened to all of the doom and gloom economic threads?

Igor_1066 said:

That is, after all, the heart, soul, and entirety of Conservatism. The Conservative feels "good" or "bad" based on whether he feels that he is doing "better" or "worse" than his neighbors. Since it is easier to tear down than to raise up, the most efficient way for him to feel better is to work hard to make his neighbors feel worse.

They are temporarily disheartened in that things seem to be getting better, but that will pass. They will soon be back, spewing their bile over everyone available.

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Where the hell do you get that?

Ham Murabi said:

Some analysts note that when Obama's worst policies appear to be going nowhere - cap and trade, health care reform - the market does well.

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Like a *sigh* of relief...

vetteman said:

I don't know about you Zoomie, always fantasizing about some guy sucking your dick.

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Pics please.

vetteman said:

I don't know about you Zoomie, always fantasizing about some guy sucking your dick.

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For fuck's sake Vette...Beco/Faneros sucks your cock and all the other right winger cock up in here, too! That ain't no fantasy. Don't get on my case because you choose not to notice it when he does!

The markets make no sence anymore. Good is good and bad is good. It's a nice illusion but that is all it is.

An Example of an Economic Illusion:

The FED Flow of Funds Report, September 17, 2009, said; "Household wealth rose in the second quarter at a 17% annual rate, or $2 trillion, to $53.1 trillion…"

This recovery is about accounting. The markets have risen on asset valuations. No one is buying stocks and the average daily volume has been decreasing since March. Sales and earnings are falling as well. For example;

The value of SPG's stock price has, by no coincidence, risen 17%
But its trading volume on the DOW has been decreasing since March. Total Net Income has gone from Q4’08 124.09, to Q109 152.34, to Q209 146.25, and the most recent quarter (Q309) reported a NEGATIVE -14.23. It has been decreasing year to year, now in the negative region, however the stock has been rising since March. How is that possible?

IF a true generalization could be made, then it necessarily means the dollar has been devalued significantly more than home, credit and other assets’ value AND it means that both are still falling. If both numerator and denominator are falling, but the dollar is falling faster than asset values, then the Dow and S&P will appear to be rising when in fact the markets are in decline.

Consider the series: 8/8 =1, 7/6 = 1.167, 6/3 = 2, 5/1 = 5

In each case, the ratio increase, from a value of 1 to a value of 5, however, the numerators and denominators for each member decreases in each step AND the denominators are falling faster. This month, the value of your house is less than last month AND the dollar is worth EVEN less - losing value faster than your assets. This is making the Dow and S&P appear to be rising.

Conclusion: It also means that another down-leg started in March and we are not recovering or expanding. It means that when the DOW is on the rise, it no longer represents a rise in the markets. Now, it represents a ratio with two shrinking variables, where the denominator is shrinking faster than the numerator.

TikkaT3 said:

It means that when the DOW is on the rise, it no longer represents a rise in the markets.

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You need a beer or something.

Or maybe you've had too many already.

Stocks going up on low volume means fewer sellers than buyers. A number of high profile stocks have turned in improving sales or earnings numbers, since last year's comparables were so bad. So the market is going up.

THe dollar sucks against e.g. the Euro, so some of the gain is lost relative to other country markets. There's no reason to limit yourself to US stocks though.

Frisco_Slug_Esq said:

Where the hell do you get that?

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Over six decades of direct observation of you foul putrid monsters.

In August, the number of background checks performed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Instant Criminal Background Check System was up 12.3% from the same month in 2008 to about 1.1 million.

That is down from the nearly 42% increase of November but is still a growth rate that would be the envy of virtually every other consumer product category.

I guess Obama has had a positive impact on the economy.

trysail said:

Irresponsible financial management has brought down many, many governments; that's a matter of fact.

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right, then we turn around and bail out these irresponsible financial mangement firms....go figure

U.S. job seekers exceed openings by record ratio
Employment prospects worse despite signs economy has started growing


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33041366/ns/business-the_new_york_times

In 1971, a U.S. dollar would buy roughly four (4) Swiss francs; today the Swiss franc is nearing parity with the U.S. dollar. The world has and is voting with its feet. The U.S. must get its financial house in order or there will be dire consequences, not the least of which is the potential for petroleum to be priced in a currency other than the dollar.

If our creditors lose confidence in the dollar, not only is there the potential for dramatically higher interest rates, there is also the possibility that creditors demand repayment in other currencies.


Zoellick Says U.S. Dollar’s Primacy Not a Certainty
By Daniel Whitten

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- World Bank President Robert Zoellick said the U.S. shouldn’t take for granted the dollar’s status as the world’s main reserve currency.

In remarks set for delivery tomorrow, Zoellick said the “next upheaval” in the international economic order is under way as emerging nations gain greater influence.

“The United States would be mistaken to take for granted the dollar’s place as the world’s predominant reserve currency,” according to excerpts released by the World Bank.

Policy makers from China to Russia repeatedly have called for an alternative to the world’s main currency in foreign- exchange reserves.

Zoellick’s speech to the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington echoes his previous comments about the dollar’s standing.

The trade-weighted Dollar Index has fallen 11 percent since President Barack Obama’s inauguration in January, in part because of a budget deficit projected to rise to $1.6 trillion this year as the government increases spending to boost the economy. The index measures the currency’s performance against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona.

Defense of Dollar

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last week defended the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. The U.S. has a “special responsibility” to preserve confidence in its financial system, and “sustain the dollar’s role as the principal reserve currency in the international financial system,” he said at a press conference Sept. 24 in Pittsburgh, where leaders of the Group of 20 nations met.

Zoellick also will urge intensified coordination among all countries to be sure that economic growth continues while they recognize that there are still 1.6 billion people in the world without electricity.

The G-20 should become “the premier forum for economic cooperation,” Zoellick will say.

At last week’s summit, officials agreed to establish a “framework for strong sustainable and balanced growth.” Countries with significant deficits in their trade accounts promised to save more, while those with surpluses pledged to strengthen domestic demand.

Peer Review

The G-20 also established a peer-review process to monitor efforts to rebalance economies and to hand emerging nations a greater say in managing world growth.

“The G-20 summit is a good start, but it will require a new level of international cooperation and coordination,” Zoellick will say. “Peer review will need to be peer pressure.”

In the U.S., he called for a bigger role for the Treasury Department in pulling together the authority of federal agencies to regulate financial markets. Leading up to the financial crisis, “regulators and supervisors of financial institutions were no longer grounded in reality,” he said.

He also criticized central banks, saying they failed to address growing risks in the economy in the last several years.

Central banks “argued that damage to the real economy of jobs production, savings and consumption could be contained, once bubbles burst, through aggressive raising of interest rates,” Zoellick said. “They turned out to be wrong.”

This morning might become a good time to start one...

Sure sign the economy is picking up.

Cops: Man can't afford U.S., seeks deportation
Illegal immigrant tells police he can't even pay for his own ticket home

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33069748/ns/us_news-life/?GT1=43001

koalabear said:

Cops: Man can't afford U.S., seeks deportation
Illegal immigrant tells police he can't even pay for his own ticket home

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33069748/ns/us_news-life/?GT1=43001

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Priceless, simply priceless.

Ulaven_Demorte said:

With the Dow climbing near 10,000 again what's happened to all of the dire, end of the world ravings of our resident "conservative" economists?

Where is all of this inflation we were warned about? According to reports the Consumer Price Index is down 1.5% overall from last year. Despite Augusts increase in prices, gasoline is still down 30% from the high a year ago.

Despite the dire warnings of some of Lit's resident math wizards the Chinese are still very much interested in buying US Treasury securities.

I guess the sky isn't falling after all.

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9/29/09 – GM and Penske Automotive Group Inc. broke off talks for the sale of Saturn. GM says it will discontinue the line by 2011. So kiss about 350 dealerships (read JOBS) goodbye. Say goodbye to about 13,000 jobs on the production line. Think this won’t have an effect on suppliers? Wrong, so figure a few more jobs gone.
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/30/penske-ends-talks-to-buy-saturn-from-gm/

9/29/09 – CTI tries to work a last min deal to avoid bankruptcy on Friday. Who is CTI? Depending on who you ask they are just about the, if not THE, largest lender to small and middle sized business in this country. You can figure out what that will do to the economy. But let’s not forget that they are a FDIC insured bank. What does that mean? Let’s go back a week or so to get some kind of idea. Irwin Financial had about $2 billion in assets when they went belly up on 9/18/09 and the FDIC estimated they would have to shell out $850 million to cover the losses. CTI has about $75 billion in assets. If they go under it will be the 5th largest bank to fail in history. You just know that is going to do wonders for the markets.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/30/AR2009093004993.html


9/29/09 – FDIC reported that they will be out of cash this week. Sheila Bair announced a plan to charge banks 3 years worth of fees up front to help shore up the FDIC. Thus far the banking industry has reported about $1.8 billion income. Balance that with the $45 billion the FDIC wants from the industry and tell me what you get.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125425533256650293.html?mod=BOL_hpp_oe



Nothing to worry about folks. The Glorious Leader has this shit under control.



On the bright side Ken Lewis is retiring. After bending to pressure from the Bush administration to neglect his fiduciary obligations and having been sacrificed at the alter of public opinion he will slip out of sight.

TikkaT3 said:

Nothing to worry about folks. The Glorious Leader has this shit under control.

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What does Obama have to do with any of that?

Just asking...

According to the Commerce Department the US economy shrank 0.7% from April through June, better than anticipated. And the GDP shrank just 6.4% through the first three months of 2009.
So our economy sucks! But, Yay! It doesn't suck as bad as expected! Yay! And only undeserving people are without a job! Yay!
That the economy didn't suck as bad as expected should really be seen as the economy improving, and a less than expected shrinkage can be termed a growth.
Right?

Igor_1066 said:

That is, after all, the heart, soul, and entirety of Conservatism. The Conservative feels "good" or "bad" based on whether he feels that he is doing "better" or "worse" than his neighbors. Since it is easier to tear down than to raise up, the most efficient way for him to feel better is to work hard to make his neighbors feel worse.

They are temporarily disheartened in that things seem to be getting better, but that will pass. They will soon be back, spewing their bile over everyone available.

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Umm, you did notice that we're not actually speaking Romanian, right? So asserting the behavior of conservatives in Romania as applicable everywhere is a fallacious argument, right?

atmas said:

According to the Commerce Department the US economy shrank 0.7% from April through June, better than anticipated. And the GDP shrank just 6.4% through the first three months of 2009.
So our economy sucks! But, Yay! It doesn't suck as bad as expected! Yay! And only undeserving people are without a job! Yay!
That the economy didn't suck as bad as expected should really be seen as the economy improving, and a less than expected shrinkage can be termed a growth.
Right?

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Right. That means the ennd is near, the shrinkage is slowing to an eventual halt, and once rock bottomm is achieved there is only one direction left to go.

And who can anyone really point fingers at? The DOW is higher than when Bush left office, anyway.

TurdFergeson said:

What does Obama have to do with any of that?

Just asking...

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I don't blaim him for all of it. My post simply pointed out that all is not well. As for the picture all I can say is I thinks it is funny. But I can see where it is one sided so here you go Turd


Why the fuck are you asking me? The only reason I am even here is because Gore and Kerry were less appealing than me.

TurdFergeson said:

Right. That means the ennd is near, the shrinkage is slowing to an eventual halt, and once rock bottomm is achieved there is only one direction left to go.

And who can anyone really point fingers at? The DOW is higher than when Bush left office, anyway.

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So is unemployment. Higher than at the time of the exit of Bush. Despite Obama's insistence that unemployment, then at mid eight percent levels, would reach 10% if his stimulus wasn't passed.
Well, it was passed. And his dire predictions are coming true...anyway.
That sound you hear could be the engines spooling on the double-dip recession. Or it could just be Obama going out to the IOC to sell friggin' Chicago.

atmas said:

According to the Commerce Department the US economy shrank 0.7% from April through June, better than anticipated. And the GDP shrank just 6.4% through the first three months of 2009.
So our economy sucks! But, Yay! It doesn't suck as bad as expected! Yay! And only undeserving people are without a job! Yay!
That the economy didn't suck as bad as expected should really be seen as the economy improving, and a less than expected shrinkage can be termed a growth.
Right?

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I do recall some people in the government (I wont use names) saying that this was the worst crisis in our lifetime. When you lower the bar that far anything looks good.

GDP may be down less than predicted (what a fucking joke that is) but it does nothing about the 3 biggest problems. Unemployment (" pass my $787 billion stimulus bill and unemployment wont go above 8%"), credit (billions in bail outs and still no loans. Where is all that money?), housing (sure sales are up. People are taking advantage of the tax credit before its too late. But foreclosure rates are going up at a faster rate than sales).

TikkaT3 said:

I do recall some people in the government (I wont use names) saying that this was the worst crisis in our lifetime. When you lower the bar that far anything looks good.

GDP may be down less than predicted (what a fucking joke that is) but it does nothing about the 3 biggest problems. Unemployment (" pass my $787 billion stimulus bill and unemployment wont go above 8%"), credit (billions in bail outs and still no loans. Where is all that money?), housing (sure sales are up. People are taking advantage of the tax credit before its too late. But foreclosure rates are going up at a faster rate than sales).

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Headlamp, please throw in an intensely purified sense of sarcasm for each Yay! in my original post.