Xi's folly.

[Chobham]

China is making moves threatening Taiwan. Given the Russian experience in Ukraine one has to wonder the motive.

China has made some incredibly bad decisions. The first being the 'one child' policy that has totally fucked up their demographics. They are now the most rapidly aging population on the face of the Earth. The second being this insane 'Zero Covid (Wuhan Flu)' policy that is destroying their economy. Xi is going for an unprecendented third term as president since the post Mao reform and opposition is building. While I originally thought that an invasion of Taiwan was a long shot there is something to be said about rallying the nation behind a war effort.

The Chinese military is formidable, but really how much so? They do have the largest Navy now, but that Navy is predominately small vessels not capable of operating beyond the first island chain. They are totally dependent on raw material imports and food. Blockade the Malacca Straits and they're toast within 6 months.

How desperate is Xi to maintain power?

 

[JohnEngelman]

Xi may think that with the United States pre occupied with Ukraine now is the time to conquer Taiwan. My hope of course is that Western resolve against Russia has given him second thoughts.

 

[pecksniff]

How desperate is Xi to maintain power?

Not very. The surest way for him to hold onto power for life would be to never make any aggressive moves or statements of any kind.

 

[LukSkyFokker]

What's the "Wuhan Flu" Ishtard?

 

[Chobham]

Xi may think that with the United States pre occupied with Ukraine now is the time to conquer Taiwan. My hope of course is that Western resolve against Russia has given him second thoughts.

One can only hope. But he's spent his time building a cult of personality and the question remains, "How desperate is he to hold on to power?"

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

He might be trying to bluff and blackmail them into reunification - carrot and stick.

Let us do not forget that Taiwan has a large Fifth Column still dedicated to mainland worship (ancestral).

 

[Chobham]

They miss the mainland but they are well aware of what life is like under the CCP.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

As we have seen in fallen Communist countries, there are a lot of people who like the comfort
of authoritarianism more than they do the uncertainty of what we would call Democracy
and in its absence will clamor and fight to be under the yoke.

Freedom is hard.

 

[Chobham]

The dynamics over there are interesting. I did a project with a Taiwanese business guy that had a couple of factories over in Shenzhen. He had to walk on a tight rope politically. Reminded me of that old Leon Russel song.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

Leon played at our club. Had Johnny Winter with him. Nice guys.

Very un-Xi like, but, I digress from the topic.
That's on you!

 

[ishtat]

Xi may think that with the United States pre occupied with Ukraine now is the time to conquer Taiwan. My hope of course is that Western resolve against Russia has given him second thoughts.

Between 1800 and 1900 the Western colonial powers gained advantageous treaties from a weakening Imperial China in China and east Asia . Japan, UK, Germany, France, Portugal, Netherlands and USA have all given back what they took.

All except one power has done so; Russia, which between 1860 and 1900 took 800,000 sq Km of territory in Outer Mongolia from Quing China. That territory contains a lot of oil, gas, and other resources; and Xi now knows how powerful the Russian military isn't. It would be easy for Xi to pick a fight with Putin, it would be much less costly and certain a military result than an attack on Taiwan. It would destroy Putin and dismay the West ( because suddenly China would have access to the Sea of Japan). Strategically, economically and politically, re-taking outer Mongolia makes far more sense for China than attacking Taiwan - it just lacks the same emotional propaganda value.

 

[pecksniff]

One can only hope. But he's spent his time building a cult of personality and the question remains, "How desperate is he to hold on to power?"

And the answer remains, not very, if he's making aggressive moves towards Taiwan.

 

[pecksniff]

He might be trying to bluff and blackmail them into reunification - carrot and stick.

Let us do not forget that Taiwan has a large Fifth Column still dedicated to mainland worship (ancestral).

I very much doubt that "Fifth Column" would play any noticeable role in a war.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

Victor Davis Hanson puts our perilous position into perfect perspective (as our adversaries see it too):

https://pjmedia.com/columns/victor-davis-hanson/2022/05/12/imagine-the-unimaginable-n1597243

 

[Rightguide]

China is making moves threatening Taiwan. Given the Russian experience in Ukraine one has to wonder the motive.

China has made some incredibly bad decisions. The first being the 'one child' policy that has totally fucked up their demographics. They are now the most rapidly aging population on the face of the Earth. The second being this insane 'Zero Covid (Wuhan Flu)' policy that is destroying their economy. Xi is going for an unprecendented third term as president since the post Mao reform and opposition is building. While I originally thought that an invasion of Taiwan was a long shot there is something to be said about rallying the nation behind a war effort.

The Chinese military is formidable, but really how much so? They do have the largest Navy now, but that Navy is predominately small vessels not capable of operating beyond the first island chain. They are totally dependent on raw material imports and food. Blockade the Malacca Straits and they're toast within 6 months.

How desperate is Xi to maintain power?

In number of craft but not in tonnage. Their numbers include their smaller craft as well.

 

[Chobham]

In number of craft but not in tonnage. Their numbers include their smaller craft as well.

I think I covered that. The point I was making is that they don't have the ability to secure their supply chain.

 

[pecksniff]

Victor Davis Hanson puts our perilous position into perfect perspective (as our adversaries see it too):

https://pjmedia.com/columns/victor-davis-hanson/2022/05/12/imagine-the-unimaginable-n1597243

I stopped reading at "There is no southern border."

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

Just like you stopped reading at "Dick" in Kindergarten because it made you giggle...

They said dick...

 

[Chobham]

Victor Davis Hanson puts our perilous position into perfect perspective (as our adversaries see it too):

https://pjmedia.com/columns/victor-davis-hanson/2022/05/12/imagine-the-unimaginable-n1597243

Good read. What he didn't cover was the push back and how violent that may become.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

Some people here are never going to see it coming as they are drunk at the font of victory...

The battle was won phenomenon.

 

[Chobham]

Moving on, the Chinese economy is crashing...............big time. The Xi regime is going to have to turn up the heat on the oven in which they cook the books. Everyone that looks to China for goods is in for a rough time as their supply chain is biting the big one right along with the rest of their economy. Xi's draconian "Zero Covid" lock downs and other measures are blowing up in his face and he can't change policy without losing said face.

Xi has shot, in some cases quite literally, any messenger that brings bad news and in so doing has thoroughly isolated himself from reality. But reality always finds a way to bite you in the ass and that's when he may become desperate enough to try a Taiwan invasion.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

... not to mention desperate enough to tactical nuke Ukraine.

China and Russia decided to become huge trading partners and I wonder,
are they willing to take everyone down with them...
__________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

 

[Chobham]

... not to mention desperate enough to tactical nuke Ukraine.

China and Russia decided to become huge trading partners and I wonder,
are they willing to take everyone down with them...
__________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

Maybe Xi has figured out a way to build an export economy when there are no customers.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

Like the Dowager Empress, he'll be the last to know that there's not even any cake for them to eat.


__________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

 

[Rightguide]

I think I covered that. The point I was making is that they don't have the ability to secure their supply chain.

In that regard, I think Xi, now that he has seen what has happened to Russia, is a bit taken aback by the unification of the west in the application of their sanctions on Russia. China being a very large importer has to have considered the effects of such a possibility on themselves if they were to invade Taiwan.