Warning: Another Iraq Thread!

dr_mabeuse

seduce the mind
Joined
Oct 10, 2002
Posts
11,528
A US government intelligence report on Iraq now claims that there’s a high possibility of an outright civil war before we ever get to the scheduled January elections, which now look like they’re going to be post-poned (this is just what happened in South Viet Nam, which never held a single election while the Americans were in control because we knew who would win.). Some critics are claiming that a state of civil war already exists, given the most recent upsurge in violence and with at least half a dozen major Iraqi cities being designated as “No-go” zones by the US military because they’re under the control of insurgents.

Whether you buy the excuses for the invasion or not, there’s little doubt that the handling of post-war Iraq has been a total fiasco, though it hasn't received much analysis in the press. How we managed to bungle it so completely is the subject of an excellent article in the New York Review of Books (http://www.nybooks.com/articles/17406) by Peter Galbraith, the career diplomat who arranged the Bosnia settlement. Skip Part 1 (it’s all about Alawi, the current president) and go down to the real story. Here’s an excerpt.:
-------------------------------------------
The privatizing of Iraq's economy was handled at first by Thomas Foley, a top Bush fund-raiser, and then by Michael Fleisher, brother of President Bush's first press secretary. After explaining that he had got the job in Iraq through his brother Ari, he told the Chicago Tribune—without any apparent sense of irony—that the Americans were going to teach the Iraqis a new way of doing business. "The only paradigm they know is cronyism."

Haveman, according to the Tribune, ignored Iraq's private health care system (which meets half the country's needs) and wasted huge amounts of money by refusing to collect data on the existing clinics. It is probably just as well that Iraq's privatization program has not worked out, since the CPA could not, as the agent of an occupying power, lawfully sell any Iraqi assets, although it is unlikely that Fleisher or Foley knew this.

US spending in Iraq has been slow and misdirected. Politically connected corporations, such as Vice President Cheney's Halliburton, received "no bid" contracts and have been accused of bilking the government with tens of millions in overcharges. But don't expect politically embarrassing investigations. The CPA's inspector general is Stuart Bowen Jr., a longtime Bush aide, who came to the position from the Washington lobbying firm of Patten Boggs. Among the contracts he is supposed to monitor is one for URS, a client whose $30 million contract he helped obtain. The US failure to meet the basic needs of ordinary people in postwar Iraq is the major reason so many Iraqis feel so bitterly angry with the occupation. The failure was not a matter of money. From the start the CPA had access to more than $1 billion in cash left behind by Saddam's regime and $4 billion in UN oil-for-food funds earmarked for Kurdistan, but redirected (to the great anger of the Kurds) to a CPA-controlled budget. In October 2003, the US Congress appropriated $19 billion for Iraq reconstruction. The CPA also controlled revenues from Iraqi oil exports, which were, in spite of periodic sabotage, very substantial.
Eight months after receiving the congressional appropriation, however, the CPA had spent less than $500 million of it on reconstruction. The only part of Iraq not subject to the CPA's financial control was Kurdistan, where the regional government received a cash allocation equal to just 6 percent of Iraq's total budget (on a per capita basis it should have received 15 percent), but spent it so effectively that the local economy has enjoyed a boom that, in some areas, outstripped the local labor market. By contrast, unemployoment in Arab Iraq has hovered around 50 percent. The hiring of unqualified staff by the CPA, documented by the Chicago Tribune and The Washington Post, helps to explain why the CPA (known to my Iraqi friends as "Cannot Provide Anything") accomplished so little…
-----------------------------

---dr.M.
 
hi dr., don't know if you saw this.

it's a pretty major conservative newpaper, in the UK, the US main ally, saying what some of us have said. consider immediate phased withdrawal; NOT on a 5-10 yr timeline.


http://fairuse.1accesshost.com/news2/ft6.htm

Financial Times [UK]

Time to consider Iraq withdrawal
Published: September 10 2004 03:00 | Last updated: September 10 2004 03:00

[start excerpt]

The aftermath of a war won so quickly has been so utterly bungled, moreover, that the US is down to the last vestiges of its always exiguous allied support, at the time when Iraq needs every bit of help it can get. The occupation has lost control of big swathes of the country. Having decided that all those who lived and worked in Iraq under Saddam Hussein bore some degree of collective guilt, Washington's viceroys purged the country's armed forces, civil service and institutions to a degree that broke the back of the state, marginalised internal political forces, sidelined many with the skills to rebuild Iraq's services and utilities and, of course, fuelled an insurgency US forces have yet to identify accurately, let alone get to grips with.

There are signs that US officials are beginning to "get it" - in the phrase Donald Rumsfeld, US defence secretary, patronisingly used this week to characterise Iraqis' grasp of the security situation. But if they are increasingly aware that what they have created in Iraq is a disaster, they seem at a loss to know what to do about it.

The core question to be addressed is this: is the continuing presence of US military forces in Iraq part of the solution or part of the problem?

As occupying power, the US bears responsibility for Iraq under international law, and is duty-bound to try to leave it in better shape than it found it. But there is no sign of that happening.
[end excerpt]
 
Last edited:
dr_mabeuse said:
A US government intelligence report on Iraq now claims that there’s a high possibility of an outright civil war before we ever get to the scheduled January elections, which now look like they’re going to be post-poned (this is just what happened in South Viet Nam, which never held a single election while the Americans were in control because we knew who would win.). Some critics are claiming that a state of civil war already exists, given the most recent upsurge in violence and with at least half a dozen major Iraqi cities being designated as “No-go” zones by the US military because they’re under the control of insurgents.
...

This is one of the best and least partisan reports I could find -- most news reports are fairly similar to this but leave a few key points out.
[url ="http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/printfriendly.pl?http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2004/s1201175.htm"] Transcript of Australian Radio's "AM - Friday, 17 September , 2004 08:20:00
Reporter: John Shovelan"[/url]

TONY EASTLEY: Bush administration officials have acknowledged the existence of a top secret intelligence report on Iraq which presents a pessimistic forecast for the country's immediate future.

At best, according to the national Intelligence estimate, Iraq can hope for "tenuous stability" and at worst, all-out civil war.
...
JOHN SHOVELAN: The national intelligence assessment – a report compiled from several different agencies – lays out a depressing estimation for Iraq.

The assessment was prepared for President Bush in July and reflects conditions in Iraq ahead of the handover to the Iraqi interim government. And the assessment was approved by the acting head of the CIA.

The most favourable outcome described is an Iraq whose stability would remain tenuous in political, economic and security terms. President Bush was briefed on the new intelligence estimate, but it hasn't changed the gist of his public comments, where he repeatedly emphasises progress.
...
JOHN SHOVELAN: The intelligence assessment remains classified, but includes a warning that the building of democracy in Iraq would be a long, difficult and turbulent process.

The fact that the intelligence assessment was and is classified raises two questions for me:

1: How did the New York Times get a classified document -- I notice they and the Washington Post seem to get a lot of classified documents that just happen to embarass GWB but never seem to get their hands on any that show anything BUT something embarassing to GWB -- there must be SOME classified documents that aren't embarassing.

Actually, I'm more concerned about why someone isn't going to jail over leaking classified documents than why the papers only use the embarassing ones. Every President has classified Presidential Briefing Papers -- Presidents may even be legally required to do so; but classified briefings are nothing unusual.

2: Since the document is still conveniently classified, I wonder what ELSE it contains? It's very easy to take things out of context whenthe original context can't be produced without (further) breaking the laws against leaking classified information.


From the little that has been released and confirmed, it sounds to me like the assessment is fairly realistic in general terms. It does NOT sound like it is a document that does, or is intended to, recommend corrective actions to guide the possible results to a preferred results. That's the job of Policy analysts, not intelligence reports and the policy types have only had this report for maybe 90 days?

I have no idea -- nor a great deal of confidence -- in the advice the policy advisors are going to generate from this report, but I don't really expect any effect to show up in policy or operations for another 90 dys or so -- bureacrats move slowly and military planning doesn't happen overnight either.


...the scheduled January elections, which now look like they’re going to be post-poned (this is just what happened in South Viet Nam, which never held a single election while the Americans were in control because we knew who would win.).

What gives you the impression that the elections will be postponed? The UN is the only one saying they should be postponed -- the interim premier of Iraq says they will be held on schedule, Ayatollah Sistani, the top Shi'ite cleric, says they must beheld on schedule, GWB syas they will be held on schedule, even Imam Sadr has said they should not be delayed. Only Kofi Anan has said they should be delayed "until the situation is stabalized."

South Vietnam DID hold elections -- at least once while I was stationed in-country an twice more that I know of. The fact that someone staged a coup shortly after each election is irrelevant -- usually somone the US would just as soon failed in the coup and was shot -- the elections took place and were undisputed by everyone except the Viet Cong.

I see a lot of spin and very little substance over a report the president needed to see and the newspapers should never have seen. I also see an unrealistic expectation of instantaneous changes based on that report.

Should the Intelligence community have gotten off it's butt and produced the report quicker? You bet your ass they should have.

Should the bureaucratic policy advisors have seen this coming and ben ready to make recommendations in less than six months? You bet your ass they should.

Should the newspapers have gotten this report and reported on it if they did -- no fucking way in hell. It's only a portion of a story based on a second-hand information from document that can't be referred to -- information that shouldn't come as any surprise to any rational person or any journalist.

Pure's citation:
The core question to be addressed is this: is the continuing presence of US military forces in Iraq part of the solution or part of the problem?

As occupying power, the US bears responsibility for Iraq under international law, and is duty-bound to try to leave it in better shape than it found it. But there is no sign of that happening.

The financial times does ask a good question. It also points out an error made very early on that I spoted as soon as it happened -- disbanding Iraq's army and security structure.

I think the answer to the core question at the moment is "Both." We're part of the problem but we're also the only "solution" availble for the forseeable future -- it would take longer to hand off the situation to someone else than it will take to get the elections over with and leave Iraq on it's own.
 
Sorry if my post was misleading.

The Book Review article didn't mention the intelligence report's contention about the possibility of civil war in Iraq. I'd heard that on CBS radio and read it on Yahoo news. I apologize if I gave the impression that the artcle had access to the report.

Postponing elections in Iraq so far is only a rumor and is certainly not being discussed officially, nor is the contention that unless things can be turned around in the next few weeks, Iraq itself is virtually a lost cause. as far as democracy and stability are concerned.

John McCain is the only politician I know who's been willing to go on record as saying that American troops will probably have to be stationed there for the next 10-20 years.

As for Viet Nam, I think I was wrong and you were right. I don't have access to my source right now (Karnower's book), but it's possible I was thinking of a referendum that we'd promised to hold for them about union with the North which was never held. I do know that we generally effected regime change via coup. We supported Big Minh's coup against Diem and Nhu by not doing anything, even though we knew about his plans well in advance.
---dr.M.
 
Last edited:
dr_mabeuse said:
Postponing elections in Iraq so far is only a rumor and is certainly not being discussed officially, nor is the contention that unless things can be turned around in the next few weeks, Iraq itself is virtually a lost cause. as far as democracy and stability are concerned.

John McCain is the only politician I know who's been willing to go on record as saying that American troops will probably have to be stationed there for the next 10-20 years.

Managing Elections in January are going to be a problem, but not, IMHO, as big a problem as postponing them would be.

The UN is correct to be concerned about the security of neutral observers and the potential for violent disruptions. All of the parties involved would be seriously negligent if they didn't think about the possibility of elections becoming totally impossible to conduct and make contigency plans for rescheduling or postponement.

If the Elections are not seen as credible, then they might as well not be held. There's going to be a rather large segment of Iraq and the rest of the world that are going to believe they're fixed whatever happens, but the Elections need to at least appear credible to those who have'nt already decided they're predetermined.

I think McCain is wrong and I also think his comment about 10-20 years is being misrepresented by most people who mention it.

The US would like to have some sort of basing agreement with the new government of Iraq, like it has with Kuwait and had with Saudi Arabia, but I don't see any possible scenario that would permit that to happen. McCain's remarks were made at a time when a basing agreement seemed reasonable and possible and I doubt that he would say the same now -- If he did, he'd be even more wrong now than he was then.

An American Military presence in Iraq longer than one year past the inauguration of the new government is gong to be untenable -- for the US and the new government.
 
dr_mabeuse said:
"After explaining that he had got the job in Iraq through his brother Ari, he told the Chicago Tribune—without any apparent sense of irony—that the Americans were going to teach the Iraqis a new way of doing business. 'The only paradigm they know is cronyism.'"

No. Seriously.

Where do we go to give up?
 
It would be funny, if not for all of the dead people and the bleak future and the numbing realization that there are still people who think this was a good idea.
 
The problem is that Iraq being in a stew does not necessarily harm Bush's campaign or help Kerry's. Especially as US soldiers are threatened (more).
 
You can't kill them all. There is no practical way to stop the insurgency, beyond giving Iraq it's own government and letting them deal with it rather than us. A few more days, a few more months, a few more years, it isn't going to end the insurgency. It's being lead by dedicated foerigners and highly visible clerics, along with you odd assortment of criminals, warlords and disillusioned Iraqis. You can't make them all happy, you can't give them all the power they want and you can't fix the things that they are mad about.

A proper governemnt, filled with and run by Iraqis is the only thing that stands any chance. It only stands a chance if it can get the backing of the populace, in which case insurgency becomes very difficult. For that to happen it has to be elected by the populous or at least have some claim to legitimacy.

Mousilini consolidated his power by making the trains run on time, in no small part. Thats where people's concerns lie now, fresh water, food, shelter, medical treatment. The lofty goals of fredom, democracy or self determination are just empty words when you have no food, no electricity, no water and no bandages.

The elections need to be held. The results need to be honored, even if our guy dosen't win. We need to get out and let them run thier own country. Many of Russia's captive states saw the German Panzers as a force of liberation. When it became obvious they were not liberators but over lords almost 250,000 russians became partians.

Our leaders need to take a look at history. Liberators come, bring chaos, but also bring freedom and get the heck out of town. Oppressors come and stay. The longer we are there, the more we resemble occupiers and the fewer people will see us as liberators.

When you take on the mantle of the liberator, you had best accept that the root of the word is liberty and you will be expected to deliver that.

I did not oppose going into Iraq. Saddam Hussien was a monster of our creation and removing him from power was, in my opinion an obligation. Now that he is safely removed, our obligation is to provide security for them to have elections and then to get out and give them their country back. the country is rich enough to be able to afford whatever copanies they wish to rebuild their infrastructure. Without a doubt they won't be retaining to many american companies, but when you made liberation the goal, you waived the right to make economic expansion a priority.

A true liberator does not replace one form of oppression with another. When thi administration cliamed to be liberators, they locked themselves into getting out as soon as was practiceable. To do any differently is to set up every man and woman in uniform as a target.

-Colly
 
Well, we'll just see. I'm pretty sure that, given their choice, Iraq would elect to have an Islamic theocracy on the model of Iran, but I don't think we'll let them. That's one freedom we won't allow.

Iraqi society is largely arranged by clans, and I don't think that "giving" them democracy is going to be as simple a as just allowing elections. I expect that everyone will vote for the head man of his clan, and then the head men will fight it out. I'm just astonished that the administration could be so naive as to think that the entire problem was Sadam, but apparently they did.

My own prediction is that we'll let them set up a puppet government and we'll pull the strings. The insurgency will continue until they get the theocracy they want.

We'll see what happens.

Meanwhile, I understand that voting registration in Afghanistan is running at a robust 135%.

---dr.M.
 
dr_mabeuse said:
Well, we'll just see. I'm pretty sure that, given their choice, Iraq would elect to have an Islamic theocracy on the model of Iran, but I don't think we'll let them. That's one freedom we won't allow.

Iraqi society is largely arranged by clans, and I don't think that "giving" them democracy is going to be as simple a as just allowing elections. I expect that everyone will vote for the head man of his clan, and then the head men will fight it out. I'm just astonished that the administration could be so naive as to think that the entire problem was Sadam, but apparently they did.

My own prediction is that we'll let them set up a puppet government and we'll pull the strings. The insurgency will continue until they get the theocracy they want.

We'll see what happens.

Meanwhile, I understand that voting registration in Afghanistan is running at a robust 135%.

---dr.M.

Sadly, I am afraid you are right. I don't want to see another anti-west, theorcracy, but it seems pretty obvious that given their choice, that's what the people would choose. What's relly upseting is that we won't let them select what they want. It is after all, their country.

I don't think they have the basic foundations neccessary to choose a democracy or even a non theocratical form of government. I am deeply troubled that those in power now don't respect their form of government enough to realize you can't force it on anyone. There has to be a desire for it based on previous experience with the freedoms it entails.

It apalls me that they think you can force someone to choose our form of government.

Whatever happens, I don't foresee it being good. I suspect all the questions asked before we invaded were of that nature of can we do it. I don't feel like anyone asked the obvious question, if we win, what to we do then?

-Colly
 
Colleen Thomas said:
... It apalls me that they think you can force someone to choose our form of government. . .
Does anybody REALLY believe the neocons wished to bring a true democracy to Iraq?

Or, do you believe they only wished to bring a simulacrum of a democracy which would comply with their instructions, in the same manner as do the dictatorships that American foreign policy has previously supported, and continues to support.

They thought they could intimidate Middle Eastern leaders into accepting a democratic form of government which would remain subservient to the dictates of American foreign policy. They thought fear of their awesome weapons would make Iraq and its neighbors fall into line with those desires.

Like other bullies before them, once challenged, we discover that there is very little substance behind the bluster. As a result, allied troops are pinned down in a quagmire and dying to save the face of this administration.

The only way out is back, but that would mean admitting a mistake — a statement this administration seems incapable of making.
 
Virtual_Burlesque said:
Does anybody REALLY believe the neocons wished to bring a true democracy to Iraq?

Or, do you believe they only wished to bring a simulacrum of a democracy which would comply with their instructions, in the same manner as do the dictatorships that American foreign policy has previously supported, and continues to support.


I believe that they really truly expected that once Sadam was gone, democracy would spontaneously break out. The Neocons really believe that the US form of government is the form God himself would choose, and it never entered their minds that something else might happen. That’s why we went in there with absolutely no plans of what to do after we’d won. They thought Iraq was Ohio waiting to happen.

Tell me this: do you really think that Geroge W. Bush ever read a history book in his life? These people are totally ignorant of foreign culture and the idea that people wouldn’t die to be USA Junior is just incomprehensible to them. They didn’t make any plans because they truly believed they wouldn’t need them.

---dr.M.
 
dr_mabeuse said:
I believe that they really truly expected that once Sadam was gone, democracy would spontaneously break out. The Neocons really believe that the US form of government is the form God himself would choose, and it never entered their minds that something else might happen. That’s why we went in there with absolutely no plans of what to do after we’d won. They thought Iraq was Ohio waiting to happen.

Tell me this: do you really think that Geroge W. Bush ever read a history book in his life? These people are totally ignorant of foreign culture and the idea that people wouldn’t die to be USA Junior is just incomprehensible to them. They didn’t make any plans because they truly believed they wouldn’t need them.

---dr.M.

I think they are not only ignorant of history, they are ignorant of everything I associate with statecraft. From knowing at least the basics about other cultures to geography, linguistics and history.

I think y9ou are dead on, the idea that anyone would turn down our form of government probably never occured to them.

-Colly
 
dr_mabeuse said:
I believe that they really truly expected that once Sadam was gone, democracy would spontaneously break out. ...
I believe the neocons were judging their enemy by how they would react, themselves. They were certain that the awesome barrage of state-of-the-art munitions would so terrify their adversaries they could coerced the defeated into becoming whatever they wished.

The neocons lied their way into being allowed to deliver the barrage, but unfortunately the adversary has proved not to be as pusillanimous as the neocons expected.
 
Virtual_Burlesque said:
I believe the neocons were judging their enemy by how they would react, themselves. They were certain that the awesome barrage of state-of-the-art munitions would so terrify their adversaries they could coerced the defeated into becoming whatever they wished.

The neocons lied their way into being allowed to deliver the barrage, but unfortunately the adversary has proved not to be as pusillanimous as the neocons expected.

And now we'll just see whether the US is serious on delivering true freedom and self-determination to Iraq or whether it's just sloganeering while we make a de facto colony of them.

I think we all know what will happen. As soon as we walk out, Iran walks in. Too bad they didn't think of that before they started.

---dr.M.
 
Virtual_Burlesque said:
Does anybody REALLY believe the neocons wished to bring a true democracy to Iraq?

Or, do you believe they only wished to bring a simulacrum of a democracy which would comply with their instructions, in the same manner as do the dictatorships that American foreign policy has previously supported, and continues to support.


I think Bush Sr.'s easy victory during the Iraq-Kuwaiti conflict led Bush Jr. & company into believing they could go in and finish the job of providing the US (and Halliburton, et al) with easy access to Iraq's oil for the foreseeable future. 9/11 and the alleged WMD offered the admisitration a rationalization acceptable to the American people for doing so.
 
LadyJeanne said:
I think Bush Sr.'s easy victory during the Iraq-Kuwaiti conflict led Bush Jr. & company into believing they could go in and finish the job of providing the US (and Halliburton, et al) with easy access to Iraq's oil for the foreseeable future. 9/11 and the alleged WMD offered the admisitration a rationalization acceptable to the American people for doing so.

That's about it. The Neocons also thought that they would establish a beach-head of democracy in the Middle East that would spread to other countries.

I also believe that the decision to go to war was in a large part political. Had things gone as planned, the troops would have been brought home last summer amidst victory parades, giving W a big feather in his cap for the upcoming election.

---dr.M.
 
Trying to recreate the expectations of the neocons before the war is a fruitless pursuit.

Had the first Gulf War gone poorly, no doubt they would have been less inclined to expect success for their second war. Had George Bush the Brighter been ill-advised enough to pursue the war into Iraq, no doubt those cautionary results would have been in place to warn the neocons in George the Lesser's reign.

George I was bright enough to tell the neocon advisors of his administration to piss off. For that reason, the neocons advising George II had no more anticipation of failure than their pudding headed leader.

Had they not been too craven to imagine anyone resisting their weapons of Shock & Awe they might have been more inclined to anticipate Iraqi resistance. That they couldn't betrays the neocons as the pudding hearted make-believe heros that they are.

No doubt the neocons would have failed to imagine Iraq choosing some other form of government than democracy, had they ever anticipated offering Iraq democracy. I feel certain that this never was in the cards. Not for one second do I believe the neocons considered giving the Iraqi's any true form of democracy only a pale image of an ersatz subservient simulacrum.

The only democracy expected by the neocons to emerge from this regime change would be some twisted perversion of the term, not unlike the No Child Let Behind education program, and the Clean Air or Pure Water ecology programs.

Edited to correct the fucttup punctuation marques.:rolleyes:
 
Last edited:
I tell you one thing, Saddam was a fucked up dictator who ruled with an iron fist and killed more than his fair share of people... but at least he kept the peace.

I just find it great. Bush liberates Iraq from the oppression of Saddam Hussein and what do they decide to do? Kill each other.

Maybe Saddam knew something we didn't?
 
dr_mabeuse said:
Well, we'll just see. I'm pretty sure that, given their choice, Iraq would elect to have an Islamic theocracy on the model of Iran, but I don't think we'll let them. That's one freedom we won't allow.

Iraqi society is largely arranged by clans, and I don't think that "giving" them democracy is going to be as simple a as just allowing elections. I expect that everyone will vote for the head man of his clan, and then the head men will fight it out. I'm just astonished that the administration could be so naive as to think that the entire problem was Sadam, but apparently they did.

My own prediction is that we'll let them set up a puppet government and we'll pull the strings. The insurgency will continue until they get the theocracy they want.

We'll see what happens.

Meanwhile, I understand that voting registration in Afghanistan is running at a robust 135%.

---dr.M.

It is not really possible to set up a theocracy in Iraq. In Iran the overwhelming majority of the people are Persian and Shia Muslims. In Iraq there is a minority of some 35% of Sunni Muslims. The Shia's and the Sunni's hate each other. (The reason there are Shias is that the ancestors of the Sunnis killed Imam Ali, the Second Caliph.)

If the split between Shai and Sunni were not bad enough, the Kurds in the North are a powerful minority and they are not Arabs, like the Southerners. The Kurds are Seljuk Turks.

Also, as you point out, there are powerful tribal clans.

The elction will not be fair. If the election were fair, the Shias would win and there would be civil war. The election will be a 'political compromise' that allows everybody to get a piece of the pie. (This last is how Lebanon was ruled before the Palestinians destroyed that country.)

As to WH's comment on the press coverage, the media is so slanted as to be almost unbelievable. A simple example of the real Iraq attitude, despite the entirely negative press reports is the US bombing of insurgent safe houses. The locals know where the safe houses are and only the locals and the insurgents know. Thus, the locals want the insurgents out.

The situation on the ground in Iraq is not good, but it is not nearly as bad as reported by the press.

JMHO.
 
Back
Top