Comshaw
VAGITARIAN
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2000
- Posts
- 11,998
...a fabulous 7-course meal of Crow for you to dine on. And since none of us uneducated, unwashed troglodytes (in your words) "have a clue" on how modeling works, we'd like you to do a presentation on how your's was so inaccurate while savoring the flavor of Crow prepared 7 different ways.
78,000 by years end 2020 I believe it was you said, no? I really wish I was the one dining on such fare and the 240,000 dead beyond your forecast weren't.
For Posterity - 04-18-2020, 12:52 PM
Since this is what I do for a living (well, use to before becoming upper management)
Here are the current results of my model:
I have a current prevalence of 5.4%. So 17.8m cases, 38k deaths, .21% mortality
By the end of year prevalence will be 6.97%. So 23million cases, mortality stays constant for 49k deaths. W/O social distance the numbers would have been 37mill and 78k deaths at a prevalence of 11.34%
This compares to the flu at 35mill and 34k deaths.
So now you all can come back in 2021 and laugh at how wrong my numbers turn out because you don’t understand how models work...
For the record, before you try it, "it's only a model" and "it's not an exact science" isn't an acceptable defense. I didn't expect exact numbers. I did expect a forecast that wasn't wrong by a magnitude of 3 times your number. With forecasting like that it isn't any wonder companies go belly up. Time for supper.
Comshaw
78,000 by years end 2020 I believe it was you said, no? I really wish I was the one dining on such fare and the 240,000 dead beyond your forecast weren't.
For Posterity - 04-18-2020, 12:52 PM
Since this is what I do for a living (well, use to before becoming upper management)
Here are the current results of my model:
I have a current prevalence of 5.4%. So 17.8m cases, 38k deaths, .21% mortality
By the end of year prevalence will be 6.97%. So 23million cases, mortality stays constant for 49k deaths. W/O social distance the numbers would have been 37mill and 78k deaths at a prevalence of 11.34%
This compares to the flu at 35mill and 34k deaths.
So now you all can come back in 2021 and laugh at how wrong my numbers turn out because you don’t understand how models work...
For the record, before you try it, "it's only a model" and "it's not an exact science" isn't an acceptable defense. I didn't expect exact numbers. I did expect a forecast that wasn't wrong by a magnitude of 3 times your number. With forecasting like that it isn't any wonder companies go belly up. Time for supper.

Comshaw