VaticanAssassin please come in to this thread, we have...

[Comshaw]

...a fabulous 7-course meal of Crow for you to dine on. And since none of us uneducated, unwashed troglodytes (in your words) "have a clue" on how modeling works, we'd like you to do a presentation on how your's was so inaccurate while savoring the flavor of Crow prepared 7 different ways.

78,000 by years end 2020 I believe it was you said, no? I really wish I was the one dining on such fare and the 240,000 dead beyond your forecast weren't.

For Posterity - 04-18-2020, 12:52 PM
Since this is what I do for a living (well, use to before becoming upper management)
Here are the current results of my model:

I have a current prevalence of 5.4%. So 17.8m cases, 38k deaths, .21% mortality
By the end of year prevalence will be 6.97%. So 23million cases, mortality stays constant for 49k deaths. W/O social distance the numbers would have been 37mill and 78k deaths at a prevalence of 11.34%

This compares to the flu at 35mill and 34k deaths.

So now you all can come back in 2021 and laugh at how wrong my numbers turn out because you don’t understand how models work...


For the record, before you try it, "it's only a model" and "it's not an exact science" isn't an acceptable defense. I didn't expect exact numbers. I did expect a forecast that wasn't wrong by a magnitude of 3 times your number. With forecasting like that it isn't any wonder companies go belly up. Time for supper.


Comshaw

 

[IrezumiKiss]

...a fabulous 7-course meal of Crow for you to dine on. And since none of us uneducated, unwashed troglodytes (in your words) "have a clue" on how modeling works, we'd like you to do a presentation on how your's was so inaccurate while savoring the flavor of Crow prepared 7 different ways.

78,000 by years end 2020 I believe it was you said, no? I really wish I was the one dining on such fare and the 240,000 dead beyond your forecast weren't.

For Posterity - 04-18-2020, 12:52 PM
Since this is what I do for a living (well, use to before becoming upper management)
Here are the current results of my model:

I have a current prevalence of 5.4%. So 17.8m cases, 38k deaths, .21% mortality
By the end of year prevalence will be 6.97%. So 23million cases, mortality stays constant for 49k deaths. W/O social distance the numbers would have been 37mill and 78k deaths at a prevalence of 11.34%

This compares to the flu at 35mill and 34k deaths.

So now you all can come back in 2021 and laugh at how wrong my numbers turn out because you don’t understand how models work...


For the record, before you try it, "it's only a model" and "it's not an exact science" isn't an acceptable defense. I didn't expect exact numbers. I did expect a forecast that wasn't wrong by a magnitude of 3 times your number. With forecasting like that it isn't any wonder companies go belly up. Time for supper.


Comshaw

https://media2.giphy.com/media/ggWYLOPV2Q6PSUvIq3/giphy.gif

https://media1.tenor.com/images/f7c668df9b491c2fef52baf86a5921d9/tenor.gif?itemid=10522543

https://i.imgur.com/NUh0GP0.jpg

 

[stickygirl]

Hasn't posted since July in that alt... d'ya think he made it?

 

[Wrong Element]

For the record, before you try it, "it's only a model" and "it's not an exact science" isn't an acceptable defense. I didn't expect exact numbers. I did expect a forecast that wasn't wrong by a magnitude of 3 times your number. With forecasting like that it isn't any wonder companies go belly up. Time for supper.
[/SIZE]

"It's not an exact science" is actually a good defense, because it was a brand new virus and our knowledge of it was and is evolving. A lot of people got it wrong! But that's why a little humility should have been called for, never the strong suit for that guy.

Their mistake all along was treating this as a political problem to be spun away rather than as a disease that doesn't care about your politics.

 

[Rotadom]

"It's not an exact science" is actually a good defense, because it was a brand new virus and our knowledge of it was and is evolving. A lot of people got it wrong! But that's why a little humility should have been called for, never the strong suit for that guy.

Their mistake all along was treating this as a political problem to be spun away rather than as a disease that doesn't care about your politics.

Bloviators gotta bloviate.

 

[Comshaw]

"It's not an exact science" is actually a good defense, because it was a brand new virus and our knowledge of it was and is evolving. A lot of people got it wrong! But that's why a little humility should have been called for, never the strong suit for that guy.

Their mistake all along was treating this as a political problem to be spun away rather than as a disease that doesn't care about your politics.

Not really. Not when the poster insists that everyone else is wrong and he is right. Hell even I as an under-educated mechanic can close my eyes and take a WAG. I'd probably be closer than he was. Had he qualified his "model" with a "it may be way off" I would have accepted that and remained quiet. He didn't. He was arrogant and boastful as hell. Time for his supper.


Comshaw

 

[PaxNurgle]

I don't even remember that guy. Was it one of those "Dmitri" (Rightguide/Ramone/Counselor/Renard, etc.) handles?

As far as the virus, in pretty much all aspects of the pandemic, the grimmest, darkest predictions that ANYONE made about it have not only come true, but the reality has made those grimmest, darkest predictions look downright optimistic compared to the way things really played out.

And this has happened over and over again since it started a year ago. There has been not one glimmer of good news- only false hopes that are later crushed by more and yet more waves of infection and more and more horrible news.

I am so ready for 2020 to be over. And I don't care what the calendar says- if I have to wear a mask everywhere, and I can't go to bars, restaurants, church, concerts or festivals... it's still frickin' 2020 as far as I'm concerned.