Trump fucks up again. Ukraine negotiation goes sideways

[Fuzzy1975]

Chloe implied that the US broke a promise made in 1994. I’ve seen others make the same claim. If you don’t like the question, tough shit.

"prohibited Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine"

How about you start here....

 

[ChloeTzang]

There are 6 points in memorandum. Russia broke its promise to not invade Ukraine. Which promises have been broken by the US?

A key element of the arrangement—many Ukrainians would say the key element—was the readiness of the United States and Russia, joined by Britain, to provide security assurances. The Budapest memorandum committed Washington, Moscow and London, among other things, to “respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine” and to “refrain from the threat or use of force” against that country.

In 1994, Washington wrote Kyiv a check for U.S. support in the Budapest memorandum—albeit hoping that it would never be cashed. Unfortunately, it has. This is not just a matter of assisting Ukraine in fulfillment of U.S. obligations. It is also about preserving the credibility of security assurances for the future. Security assurances such as those in the Budapest memorandum do not carry as much weight as NATO security guarantees or the guarantees in the mutual security treaties that the United States has with Japan and South Korea. Still, security assurances have played a role in the effort to freeze and end North Korea’s nuclear program.

These kinds of assurances may not by themselves offer major leverage. However, when looking for ways to prevent nuclear proliferation, Washington and its partners should marshal every possible tool. The problem is that Russia’s actions against Ukraine, and the USA's failure to back up their guarantee and Clinton's signature, have discredited all such security assurances going forward.

If a North Korean diplomat were to ask his or her Ukrainian counterpart how the Budapest memorandum worked out, the response would not be a happy one. At a September conference in Kyiv, former President Leonid Kuchma, who signed the Budapest memorandum for Ukraine, said that Ukraine had been “cheated.” Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk referred to the “notorious” Budapest memorandum. Such comments do not make good advertisements for future security assurances.

Washington cannot undo Russia’s violations. It can and should, however, do more to fulfill its obligations under the Budapest memorandum by doing more to bolster Ukraine and penalize Russia until Moscow alters its policy. Such U.S. action could also change the Ukrainian narrative in the hypothetical conversation and help restore credibility to security assurances as an element in the toolkit of America’s non-proliferation diplomacy. Unfortunately, Trump, over the last few weeks, has completely discredited the USA's signatures on any security agreement
Zelenskyy publicly commented on the Budapest Memorandum by arguing that it provides no true guarantee of safety due to Russia's coercive power. Zelenskyy said "Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum [i.e. United States and United Kingdom]. Four times without success.

Zelenskyy said further, “Ukraine has received security guarantees for abandoning the world's third nuclear capability. We don't have that weapon. We also have no security. We also do not have part of the territory of our state that is larger in area than Switzerland, the Netherlands or Belgium. And most importantly - we don’t have millions of our citizens. We don’t have all this”.

“Ukraine, he said - could have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt." This has proven to be a correct assessment and interpretation of the failure of assurances in the memorandum, if not through Trump’s intent to stop all support for Ukraine, then through Putins illegal and genocidal invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is clear the Budapest Memorandum has now been breached by Russia and also by the United States, with Trump exercisimg economic coercion on Ukraine.

The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated as a political agreement. It refers to assurances, not defined, but less than a military guarantee.The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated at political level. It refers to assurances, but unlike guarantees, it does not impose a legal obligation of military assistance on its parties. The memorandum has a requirement of consultation among the parties "in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning the ... commitments" set out in the memorandum.

Whether or not the memorandum sets out legal obligations, the difficulties that Ukraine has encountered since early 2014 cast doubt on the credibility of future security assurances that are offered in exchange for nonproliferation commitments. Trump's actions over the last few weeks throw the credibility of any such agreements out the window and guarantee nuclearb proliferation.

The Spirit of the Memorandum however has been broken by all parties to the agreement, as the plain sense of the agreement was in return for Ukraine surrendering it’s nuclear stockpile, Ukraines territorial integrity would be preserved both by a written assurance from Russia it would not attack or threaten to attack Ukraine and the western power signatories would provide (sufficient?) support to ensure Ukraine’s territorial integrity would be protected. These security assurances were key to bringing Ukraine to agree to get rid of its nuclear arms.

The United States publicly maintains that "the Memorandum is not legally binding", calling it a "political commitment". Trump is now reneging on the USA’s commitments to the Budapest Memorandum, and in doing so will jeopardise all future promises and undertakings they might or have given (Taiwan?), NATO, and anyone else.

 

[Lazaran]

What promise could possibly be more important than to not invade?

How far are you willing to twist yourself into a pretzel in service of Trump’s capitulation to Putin?

This is BabyBoobs you’re talking about…

That ^ POS also uses innocent children as political footballs…

BabyBoobs would twist innocent children into pretzels to #win…"something"…

BabyBoobs is a total POS. Full stop.

 

[ChloeTzang]

This is quite fascinating. If you check Chinese TikTok they have been easing in “pro- Ukrainian” content, there is a political shift going on.

Chinese journalists have unexpectedly filmed a report with the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the first time – and even took part in shelling Russian positions. This marks the first time that representatives of this media outlet have worked with the Ukrainian army - previously, they had exclusively filmed reports with Russian troops. This is reporting for Chinese news, and they don't make switches like this lightly. Watch China’s position begin to shift. They are pragmatic if nothing else. Between American tariffs and Russia’s shrinking economy, the only stable trading partner left is Europe. And Europe needs reliability in return. Europe is backing Ukraine, and economically is worth a lot more to China that Russia. It will come down to Ukraine and economics.

That, and if Ukraine does bring about the collapse of Russia, Siberia is in play and Russia has long-standing claims to large parts of Siberia going back to the Tsarist Russian days. Trump has created a huge opening for China to exploit, and in pissing on Europe and NATO, he has really alienated the EU. Look for a realignment where the EU and China move closer.

Eurasia and Eastasia are now at war with Oceania.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1899457100608065952

 

[Fuzzy1975]

This is quite fascinating. If you check Chinese TikTok they have been easing in “pro- Ukrainian” content, there is a political shift going on.

Chinese journalists have unexpectedly filmed a report with the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the first time – and even took part in shelling Russian positions. This marks the first time that representatives of this media outlet have worked with the Ukrainian army - previously, they had exclusively filmed reports with Russian troops. This is reporting for Chinese news, and they don't make switches like this lightly. Watch China’s position begin to shift. They are pragmatic if nothing else. Between American tariffs and Russia’s shrinking economy, the only stable trading partner left is Europe. And Europe needs reliability in return. Europe is backing Ukraine, and economically is worth a lot more to China that Russia. It will come down to Ukraine and economics.

That, and if Ukraine does bring about the collapse of Russia, Siberia is in play and Russia has long-standing claims to large parts of Siberia going back to the Tsarist Russian days. Trump has created a huge opening for China to exploit, and in pissing on Europe and NATO, he has really alienated the EU. Look for a realignment where the EU and China move closer.

Eurasia and Eastasia are now at war with Oceania.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1899457100608065952

I look forward to buying either a Toyota or BYD EV in a few years. Ford,GMC and Dodge are done. I'm pretty sure BYD will take over those factories Trump claims he is going to close here in Canada....

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

"prohibited Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine"

How about you start here....

Not giving money, guns and ammo indefinitely isn’t economic coercion

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Not giving money, guns and ammo indefinitely isn’t economic coercion

I never said it was, but not giving guns, and ammo because Ukraine won't sign a deal for minerals is.

Try again.

 

[Lazaran]

I never said it was, but not giving guns, and ammo because Ukraine won't sign a deal for minerals is.

Try again.

BabyBoobs uses innocent children as political footballs…

Do you really expect a legitimate response from that POS???

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

I never said it was, but not giving guns, and ammo because Ukraine won't sign a deal for minerals is.

Try again.

So you’re saying that linking weapons, ammo and cash to a mineral rights deal is economic coercion? Lol

 

[ChloeTzang]

Budanov is repeating what we all know.

The Trump administration in these so called “peace talks” have aided one side and one side only, Russia. At first I thought these “peace negotiations” were badly run, then my suspicions grew when all the military aid to Ukraone stopped, and then as Russian Kremlin talking points were being repeated word perfectly by individuals of the Trump administration. Follow that with the Oval Office ambush and then add in the sudden effective targeting of Ukrainian positions in Kursk.....

The US has also stopped all military support and intel sharing while putting no visible pressure, and not one concession asked of Russia, all with Russia openly saying they will not accept any concessions - while Rubio is bust saying Ukraine must make concessions. Putin and Russia have used this advantage to rain missiles down on Ukraonian civilians and still nothing from the US administration, nothing. There is absolutely no question that Trump has changed sides.

Russia’s economy is now precariously perched on a knife edge & facing total collapse - and Trump is doing his best to save his buddy Putin.

"Russia needs a pause in the war to recover its strength. There are all the signs of this." - Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine.

According to the chief intelligence officer, Russians have reached the maximum of their production capacity. Budanov specified that a day of war costs the Russian Federation about $1 billion.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1899089154505425046

 

[MajorRewrite]

So you’re saying that linking weapons, ammo and cash to a mineral rights deal is economic coercion? Lol

Yes. LOL.

Poor BabyBoom. Being a Trump sycophant is difficult when Donnie is busily turning everything he touches to shit.

 

[ChloeTzang]

So you’re saying that linking weapons, ammo and cash to a mineral rights deal is economic coercion? Lol

Yes, it is. Blatant extortion.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

A key element of the arrangement—many Ukrainians would say the key element—was the readiness of the United States and Russia, joined by Britain, to provide security assurances. The Budapest memorandum committed Washington, Moscow and London, among other things, to “respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine” and to “refrain from the threat or use of force” against that country.

In 1994, Washington wrote Kyiv a check for U.S. support in the Budapest memorandum—albeit hoping that it would never be cashed. Unfortunately, it has. This is not just a matter of assisting Ukraine in fulfillment of U.S. obligations. It is also about preserving the credibility of security assurances for the future. Security assurances such as those in the Budapest memorandum do not carry as much weight as NATO security guarantees or the guarantees in the mutual security treaties that the United States has with Japan and South Korea. Still, security assurances have played a role in the effort to freeze and end North Korea’s nuclear program.

These kinds of assurances may not by themselves offer major leverage. However, when looking for ways to prevent nuclear proliferation, Washington and its partners should marshal every possible tool. The problem is that Russia’s actions against Ukraine, and the USA's failure to back up their guarantee and Clinton's signature, have discredited all such security assurances going forward.

If a North Korean diplomat were to ask his or her Ukrainian counterpart how the Budapest memorandum worked out, the response would not be a happy one. At a September conference in Kyiv, former President Leonid Kuchma, who signed the Budapest memorandum for Ukraine, said that Ukraine had been “cheated.” Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk referred to the “notorious” Budapest memorandum. Such comments do not make good advertisements for future security assurances.

Washington cannot undo Russia’s violations. It can and should, however, do more to fulfill its obligations under the Budapest memorandum by doing more to bolster Ukraine and penalize Russia until Moscow alters its policy. Such U.S. action could also change the Ukrainian narrative in the hypothetical conversation and help restore credibility to security assurances as an element in the toolkit of America’s non-proliferation diplomacy. Unfortunately, Trump, over the last few weeks, has completely discredited the USA's signatures on any security agreement
Zelenskyy publicly commented on the Budapest Memorandum by arguing that it provides no true guarantee of safety due to Russia's coercive power. Zelenskyy said "Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum [i.e. United States and United Kingdom]. Four times without success.

Zelenskyy said further, “Ukraine has received security guarantees for abandoning the world's third nuclear capability. We don't have that weapon. We also have no security. We also do not have part of the territory of our state that is larger in area than Switzerland, the Netherlands or Belgium. And most importantly - we don’t have millions of our citizens. We don’t have all this”.

“Ukraine, he said - could have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt." This has proven to be a correct assessment and interpretation of the failure of assurances in the memorandum, if not through Trump’s intent to stop all support for Ukraine, then through Putins illegal and genocidal invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is clear the Budapest Memorandum has now been breached by Russia and also by the United States, with Trump exercisimg economic coercion on Ukraine.

The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated as a political agreement. It refers to assurances, not defined, but less than a military guarantee.The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated at political level. It refers to assurances, but unlike guarantees, it does not impose a legal obligation of military assistance on its parties. The memorandum has a requirement of consultation among the parties "in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning the ... commitments" set out in the memorandum.

Whether or not the memorandum sets out legal obligations, the difficulties that Ukraine has encountered since early 2014 cast doubt on the credibility of future security assurances that are offered in exchange for nonproliferation commitments. Trump's actions over the last few weeks throw the credibility of any such agreements out the window and guarantee nuclearb proliferation.

The Spirit of the Memorandum however has been broken by all parties to the agreement, as the plain sense of the agreement was in return for Ukraine surrendering it’s nuclear stockpile, Ukraines territorial integrity would be preserved both by a written assurance from Russia it would not attack or threaten to attack Ukraine and the western power signatories would provide (sufficient?) support to ensure Ukraine’s territorial integrity would be protected. These security assurances were key to bringing Ukraine to agree to get rid of its nuclear arms.

The United States publicly maintains that "the Memorandum is not legally binding", calling it a "political commitment". Trump is now reneging on the USA’s commitments to the Budapest Memorandum, and in doing so will jeopardise all future promises and undertakings they might or have given (Taiwan?), NATO, and anyone else.

There is literally nothing that states or even implies US security guarantees. You seem to be saying that the clause that each signatory will respect Ukraine’s independence means committing arms and money if Ukraine is attacked. That was neither promised or implied.

 

[ChloeTzang]

There is literally nothing that states or even implies US security guarantees. You seem to be saying that the clause that each signatory will respect Ukraine’s independence means committing arms and money if Ukraine is attacked. That was neither promised or implied.

Security is implied. As you said, not specifically stated, but this agreement was the basis in which Ukraine gave up its nukes. The USA is reneging on that, and now Trump is actively breaking that agreeement.

Weasal all you like. All that does is place you on a par with Trump, and he's managed to ensure that the USA or a US President signing any agreement isn' worth the paper it's written on. Why do you think Zelensky wants American boots on the ground? I'll tell you why. Because a paper agreement with the USA is now worth absolutely nothing. Thanks to Trump. This is a path that has led directly to nuclear proliferation - Poland has already said they are going there. Other countries now will without saying so. And THAT makes a nuclear war at some point more likely.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

So you’re saying that linking weapons, ammo and cash to a mineral rights deal is economic coercion? Lol

Depends on the deal. When it's "sign this or else", that is economic coercion.

I truly expect you prostrate yourself in an example of pretzel making of an ican't variety,so please try again.

 

[Politruk]

When Putin began building up a massive force on Ukraine’s borders in early 2021, Biden’s response was… to reward Putin with a one-on-one summit.

A summit is no reward.

 

[Politruk]

So you’re saying that linking weapons, ammo and cash to a mineral rights deal is economic coercion? Lol

When a country needs those things to fight for its life, yes, it's economic coercion.

Look up how Marcus Licinius Crassus made money off his fire brigade.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Security is implied. As you said, not specifically stated, but this agreement was the basis in which Ukraine gave up its nukes. The USA is reneging on that, and now Trump is actively breaking that agreeement.

Weasal all you like. All that does is place you on a par with Trump, and he's managed to ensure that the USA or a US President signing any agreement isn' worth the paper it's written on. Why do you think Zelensky wants American boots on the ground? I'll tell you why. Because a paper agreement with the USA is now worth absolutely nothing. Thanks to Trump. This is a path that has led directly to nuclear proliferation - Poland has already said they are going there. Other countries now will without saying so. And THAT makes a nuclear war at some point more likely.

Nonsense. The idea that they forgot to include security guarantees or that the document was sloppily written is ridiculous. Each and every word of multinational statements are carefully scrutinized.

 

[DeluxAuto]

Assistant co-chair to president musk has no sense of US history.

 

[DeluxAuto]

I'm surprised he didn't ask why Obama did nothing during the 9/11 attacks.

 

[Lazaran]

Security is implied. As you said, not specifically stated, but this agreement was the basis in which Ukraine gave up its nukes. The USA is reneging on that, and now Trump is actively breaking that agreeement.

Weasal all you like. All that does is place you on a par with Trump, and he's managed to ensure that the USA or a US President signing any agreement isn' worth the paper it's written on. Why do you think Zelensky wants American boots on the ground? I'll tell you why. Because a paper agreement with the USA is now worth absolutely nothing. Thanks to Trump. This is a path that has led directly to nuclear proliferation - Poland has already said they are going there. Other countries now will without saying so. And THAT makes a nuclear war at some point more likely.

I truly hope the veil is lifting for you, Chloe…

BabyBoobs (and every other RWCJ usual suspect on the PB) is every bit as sociopathic / psychopathic as President Musk (and DonOld).

There is no soul or conscience there. Just weasel words (the weave) that are designed to delay, deflect, and distract…



JFC

SAD!!!

 

[RoryN]

Yeah well, mea culpa. I had my blinkers on. Like a lot of conservatives, I though Trump was just feeding the MAGA base what they wanted to hear and after he was President, he'd get back to realpolitik on Ukraine. I had no idea he was either batshit crazy, or in Putin's pocket.

Given the previous evidence of Trump's affiliations and modus operandi, you will understand that no thinking American will believe any of this for a second.

It's the equivalent of saying no one had any idea Mr. Moose was going to drop ping pong balls on Captain Kangaroo's fucking head.

 

[eric_erosfan]

Given the previous evidence of Trump's affiliations and modus operandi, you will understand that no thinking American will believe any of this for a second.

It's the equivalent of saying no one had any idea Mr. Moose was going to drop ping pong balls on Captain Kangaroo's fucking head.

Captain Kangaroo reference FTW!

 

[KimAwakened]

Everybody prepared now for VP's sherade of pretending to consider "peace plans" seriously..?

He's about to put on this huge show of giving grave consideration to his man in Washington's ideas and being so, so worried about possible extra US sanctions (which will never happen)...

... when recognition of his annexation of the Donbass and Crimea were the his aims all along. Together with, of course, an insistence that no US or European troops be placed in Ukraine to guard against what comes next...

Everyone ready for the next exciting episode of the Vlad and Donny boy show..? You're sure to enjoy it. It's all been so carefully planned...

 

[Deleted member 1215945]

Everybody prepared now for VP's sherade of pretending to consider "peace plans" seriously..?

He's about to put on this huge show of giving grave consideration to his man in Washington's ideas and being so, so worried about possible extra US sanctions (which will never happen)...

... when recognition of his annexation of the Donbass and Crimea were the his aims all along. Together with, of course, an insistence that no US or European troops be placed in Ukraine to guard against what comes next...

Everyone ready for the next exciting episode of the Vlad and Donny boy show..? You're sure to enjoy it. It's all been so carefully planned...

The maps have already been drawn. World domination is their goal. Hang on to your ass. Read 1984. Shit is unfolding right before our eyes.