More to do with affairs military than politics but I have no doubt that it'll get political soon enough.
The Ukrainians are in a salient.
Salients are dangerous, they invite an attacker to cut off and envelope those caught in the salient. Looking at the map of current troop dispositions the Russians could drive from Izyum towards Zaporizhzhia and northwards along the same line and envelope the greater part of the Ukrainian forces. The Russians aren't stupid and I'm sure they see the opportunity, the big question is whether they have the forces to pull it off?
The longer the lines remain static the longer the Russians have time to gather their forces for the attempt. The big advantage the Ukrainians have is that they have the interior line and consequently an advantage in mobility. They also are benefiting from Western intel.
The Russians have intel of their own and benefit from knowing where they're going to strike and when.
It's going to get ugly, real ugly.
The Ukrainians are in a salient.
Salients are dangerous, they invite an attacker to cut off and envelope those caught in the salient. Looking at the map of current troop dispositions the Russians could drive from Izyum towards Zaporizhzhia and northwards along the same line and envelope the greater part of the Ukrainian forces. The Russians aren't stupid and I'm sure they see the opportunity, the big question is whether they have the forces to pull it off?
The longer the lines remain static the longer the Russians have time to gather their forces for the attempt. The big advantage the Ukrainians have is that they have the interior line and consequently an advantage in mobility. They also are benefiting from Western intel.
The Russians have intel of their own and benefit from knowing where they're going to strike and when.
It's going to get ugly, real ugly.