Ishmael
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Nov 24, 2001
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There Will be War - Russia VS China
History:
Russia began her eastward expansion in the 16th century under the Muscovy rulers. Mostly traders and merchants the expansion moved them eastward until they reached the Lena River and then the Amur River and into contact with the Chinese Empire. Towards the end of the 16th century a treaty was signed between the Muscovites and the Chinese that ceded the Amur valley to the Chinese but left all territories to the north in the hands of the Muscovites.
Over time the Russians encroached on the Amur River valley and the boundary between the two nations is now set at the Amur River.
Russia and China share the longest border on the planet. And as with most borders there are disputes. Over 400 border disputes as a matter of fact. Some disputes are trivial, such as over a tiny island in the middle of the Amur, to much larger issues like all of eastern Siberia. These disputes have led to an exchange of gunfire from time to time.
The Amur disputes aside, China claims that the original treaty sets the eastward limits of the Russian Empire at the Lena river and a line drawn from its source to the Amur. Russia claims that no such limitation exists.
The natives of Eastern Siberia are primarily Oriental in origins and this is a further bolster of China's claims. After all, the Inuit of the area are tribal cousins'. The Inuit of the region would just as soon see both the Russians and the Chinese go away, but are too few in number to be anything but pawns in a much larger game.
The Scenario:
Both Russia and China look to Eastern Siberia as a solution to their nations problems. China is a net importer of petroleum and expects that percentage to increase along with their economic expansion. Naturally, the petroleum reserves both known and suspected in Eastern Siberia are very attractive to them. They wouldn't turn their noses up to the gold and other minerals there either.
Russian is in desperate need of hard currency to build their infrastructure and convert their economy. Their salvation lies in Eastern Siberia. The development of the resources there has the potential to bring Russia into the first rank of nations. It is not a resource they would easily surrender.
Political Considerations:
With almost 500 years of history in the area, the Russians have strong claims. However the Chinese ethnic claims are valid and the issue over the boundary Lena is unclear. The Chinese claims have just enough validity to justify a northward move on their part.
Military:
The Russian Far East Command is in terrible condition, but is at least postured properly to face the Chinese. There is a great deal of fixed emplacements and pre-positioned equipment providing the Russians can move her troops quickly enough.
The military doctrine of the two nations is very similar and the massive build up of the Chinese on the border will give Russia some time to prepare.
Russia has always been willing to trade territory for time and have shown a tenacious ability to defend her territories.
Neither side would have a technological advantage and once again the determining factor in the early going would be the best use of available airpower.
Nuclear capabilities are an option. In this the Russians do have an edge in tactical capabilities. The question is whether the political leadership would be willing to risk a retaliatory strategic strike by the Chinese.
Probabilities:
This one goes beyond probabilities. The Russians are trying to woo the tribal minorities in the region as are the Chinese. Russia is very fearful of the pseudo 'free-enterprise' system that the Chinese have instituted and the growing economic and military might of the Chinese.
As a result of this fear, Russia might begin to upgrade the systems and number of personal along the Chinese border. This in turn could cause the Chinese to suspect that the Russians are planning a preemptive invasion of China. And then the arms race would be on for certain.
Ramifications:
This is another scenario with a high probability of drawing in other nations. The United States would more than likely side with Russia. If not with military involvement, at least with substantial aid. Japan would likely use the circumstance to enter into an agreement with the Russians as well. Primarily the return of Sakhlin Island to Japanese control, and a co-development treaty regarding the resources of Eastern Siberia. The Japanese have no interest in falling under the Chinese economic sphere of influence. The Chinese have long memories regarding the Japanese and Japan could not look forward to kind treatment from China.
Ishmael
History:
Russia began her eastward expansion in the 16th century under the Muscovy rulers. Mostly traders and merchants the expansion moved them eastward until they reached the Lena River and then the Amur River and into contact with the Chinese Empire. Towards the end of the 16th century a treaty was signed between the Muscovites and the Chinese that ceded the Amur valley to the Chinese but left all territories to the north in the hands of the Muscovites.
Over time the Russians encroached on the Amur River valley and the boundary between the two nations is now set at the Amur River.
Russia and China share the longest border on the planet. And as with most borders there are disputes. Over 400 border disputes as a matter of fact. Some disputes are trivial, such as over a tiny island in the middle of the Amur, to much larger issues like all of eastern Siberia. These disputes have led to an exchange of gunfire from time to time.
The Amur disputes aside, China claims that the original treaty sets the eastward limits of the Russian Empire at the Lena river and a line drawn from its source to the Amur. Russia claims that no such limitation exists.
The natives of Eastern Siberia are primarily Oriental in origins and this is a further bolster of China's claims. After all, the Inuit of the area are tribal cousins'. The Inuit of the region would just as soon see both the Russians and the Chinese go away, but are too few in number to be anything but pawns in a much larger game.
The Scenario:
Both Russia and China look to Eastern Siberia as a solution to their nations problems. China is a net importer of petroleum and expects that percentage to increase along with their economic expansion. Naturally, the petroleum reserves both known and suspected in Eastern Siberia are very attractive to them. They wouldn't turn their noses up to the gold and other minerals there either.
Russian is in desperate need of hard currency to build their infrastructure and convert their economy. Their salvation lies in Eastern Siberia. The development of the resources there has the potential to bring Russia into the first rank of nations. It is not a resource they would easily surrender.
Political Considerations:
With almost 500 years of history in the area, the Russians have strong claims. However the Chinese ethnic claims are valid and the issue over the boundary Lena is unclear. The Chinese claims have just enough validity to justify a northward move on their part.
Military:
The Russian Far East Command is in terrible condition, but is at least postured properly to face the Chinese. There is a great deal of fixed emplacements and pre-positioned equipment providing the Russians can move her troops quickly enough.
The military doctrine of the two nations is very similar and the massive build up of the Chinese on the border will give Russia some time to prepare.
Russia has always been willing to trade territory for time and have shown a tenacious ability to defend her territories.
Neither side would have a technological advantage and once again the determining factor in the early going would be the best use of available airpower.
Nuclear capabilities are an option. In this the Russians do have an edge in tactical capabilities. The question is whether the political leadership would be willing to risk a retaliatory strategic strike by the Chinese.
Probabilities:
This one goes beyond probabilities. The Russians are trying to woo the tribal minorities in the region as are the Chinese. Russia is very fearful of the pseudo 'free-enterprise' system that the Chinese have instituted and the growing economic and military might of the Chinese.
As a result of this fear, Russia might begin to upgrade the systems and number of personal along the Chinese border. This in turn could cause the Chinese to suspect that the Russians are planning a preemptive invasion of China. And then the arms race would be on for certain.
Ramifications:
This is another scenario with a high probability of drawing in other nations. The United States would more than likely side with Russia. If not with military involvement, at least with substantial aid. Japan would likely use the circumstance to enter into an agreement with the Russians as well. Primarily the return of Sakhlin Island to Japanese control, and a co-development treaty regarding the resources of Eastern Siberia. The Japanese have no interest in falling under the Chinese economic sphere of influence. The Chinese have long memories regarding the Japanese and Japan could not look forward to kind treatment from China.
Ishmael
