The failure of Romney's GOTV and Project Orca

[RobDownSouth]

LOL, it certainly does seem that way.

I'm still shocked at the incompetent approach to it. From lack of testing something of that scope (over 30,000 end users) to not have beta (some sort of UAT) and stress testing and they sent them training manuals the night before is staggering.

How could they think it would be successful?

On limited shelf-life projects like this one (i.e. useless after November 6th) the usual excuse is "time was of the essence".

 

[Wok]

LOL, it certainly does seem that way.

I'm still shocked at the incompetent approach to it. From lack of testing something of that scope (over 30,000 end users) to not have beta (some sort of UAT) and stress testing and they sent them training manuals the night before is staggering.

How could they think it would be successful?

Much like Morris thinking it would be a landslide?

 

[bronzeage]

LOL, it certainly does seem that way.

I'm still shocked at the incompetent approach to it. From lack of testing something of that scope (over 30,000 end users) to not have beta (some sort of UAT) and stress testing and they sent them training manuals the night before is staggering.

How could they think it would be successful?

It was an attempt to overcome a lack of numbers with technology.

GOTV consists of two layers. The first is to insure all those who are confirmed supporters have transportation and assistance to get to the polls. This requires planning like D-day. Early voting has made a big difference in this. A ten passenger van can only carry about 100 people to the polls on election day, but maybe a hundred or more for early voting.

The second is to contact the less than confirmed and get a personal commitment. This is the real hard work. It takes lots of people.

ORCA sounds more like a play by play commentary from the press box, than anything else. Other than keeping everyone informed, what good is instant communication with multiple people on election day? It's not like you can ship voters to where they are needed.

Unless that was part of the plan, too.

 

[zipman]

Much like Morris thinking it would be a landslide?

That's different as it's the opinion of one man. Orca was conceived or at least vetted by his team of advisors. I would love to learn more about it. I really do think it's fascinating.

 

[zipman]

It was an attempt to overcome a lack of numbers with technology.

GOTV consists of two layers. The first is to insure all those who are confirmed supporters have transportation and assistance to get to the polls. This requires planning like D-day. Early voting has made a big difference in this. A ten passenger van can only carry about 100 people to the polls on election day, but maybe a hundred or more for early voting.

The second is to contact the less than confirmed and get a personal commitment. This is the real hard work. It takes lots of people.

ORCA sounds more like a play by play commentary from the press box, than anything else. Other than keeping everyone informed, what good is instant communication with multiple people on election day? It's not like you can ship voters to where they are needed.

Unless that was part of the plan, too.

I think the idea was to find out who has voted and target likely republicans who hadn't showed up at the polls yet to try and convince (or scare them) into voting.

As a strategy I don't really get it because I think a lot of that effort has to occur before election day. If someone called me, I would likely tell them to fuck off, regardless of the party. Hell, I hate getting political emails, let alone phone calls.

I think it was a flawed strategy as well as flawed implementation and planning.

 

[CHNOPS]

That's different as it's the opinion of one man. Orca was conceived or at least vetted by his team of advisors. I would love to learn more about it. I really do think it's fascinating.

Obama's team had similar (better, longer-implemented) technology. They microtargeted for months, knew who to mail to, who to call, who to visit, whose mail or call or visit needed another boost or seven to convert, etc. It's incredibly data-rich direct marketing at its core. If anyone knew the nitty gritty, they could probably make a good case for government invasion of privacy. It's not Google-style, 'the algorithm just scans your email for key-words,' it is literally tracking whether YOU, Sonny Limatina, have opened a piece of mail or not (as per your response to a caller, not by going through trash or the like).

But the real surprise would have been if ORCA had worked the first time out of the gate. That's one more perk of incumbency: you've made all your mistakes already, and can afford to take the time to fix them before the other side even has a candidate to run against you.

The irony? Rove's skill--and he had a lot of it--was as a direct marketer. This was the year that the market shifted from under him.

Also: Romney's team just wasn't that good to start with. B-players in a replacement year, with a B candidate to work with. Not a promising recipe.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Also: Romney's team just wasn't that good to start with. B-players in a replacement year, with a B candidate to work with. Not a promising recipe.

Keeps getting better and better. Gingrich locked up the really good tech pros early, then stiffed them on payments when his campaign tanked. The tech companies got really leary of signing on to campaigns without upfront payments after that, which put an unbudgeted financial drain on campaigns exactly when they could least afford it.

I can absolutely see high-level discussions like this: "Okay, tell me about this "stress-test"...do we absolutely need this? Hmmm?"

 

[zipman]

Obama's team had similar (better, longer-implemented) technology. They microtargeted for months, knew who to mail to, who to call, who to visit, whose mail or call or visit needed another boost or seven to convert, etc. It's incredibly data-rich direct marketing at its core. If anyone knew the nitty gritty, they could probably make a good case for government invasion of privacy. It's not Google-style, 'the algorithm just scans your email for key-words,' it is literally tracking whether YOU, Sonny Limatina, have opened a piece of mail or not (as per your response to a caller, not by going through trash or the like).

But the real surprise would have been if ORCA had worked the first time out of the gate. That's one more perk of incumbency: you've made all your mistakes already, and can afford to take the time to fix them before the other side even has a candidate to run against you.

The irony? Rove's skill--and he had a lot of it--was as a direct marketer. This was the year that the market shifted from under him.

Also: Romney's team just wasn't that good to start with. B-players in a replacement year, with a B candidate to work with. Not a promising recipe.

I get micro-targeting for months. That makes sense to me. Orca was designed solely for election day which I just don't get from a strategic perspective.

 

[CHNOPS]

I get micro-targeting for months. That makes sense to me. Orca was designed solely for election day which I just don't get from a strategic perspective.

Without belaboring this point too hard: they were minor leaguers. Not only that, but they were trying to play the game Obama's data-nerds invented/perfected four years ago as if it was new, and as if Obama's team hadn't spent the last four years advancing the form.

They were confident in their GOTV efforts with or without ORCA, they just thought ORCA would make it even easier/better. Incredible fuck-up that they never tested the software/concept, but the real fuck-up was the confidence itself. They just weren't that good a campaign; there's no way around that. They were little kids trying to play with the grown-ups.

I have no idea how they managed to keep the Pawlenty story as quiet as they did, but anyone who wondered if Romney was going to win only needed to note that Pawlenty resigned as national campaign chairman six weeks before the election. No one with national-office aspirations removes themselves from a ticket they think is going to win.

 

[IrezumiKiss]

Apparently, what they thought would be a killer program for them turned out to be a real whale.

*ba-dum-tssssh!*

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/184j5bvkawpntgif/original.gif

Thank you, ladies and germs, I'm here every Friday at nine and don't forget to tip your bartender!

 

[Wok]

That's different as it's the opinion of one man. Orca was conceived or at least vetted by his team of advisors. I would love to learn more about it. I really do think it's fascinating.

Yeah, you have a point there.

 

[Squibbs]

What this all means is, the GOP managed to suppress their own vote.

It was probably due to those pesky vaginas.

 

[The_Trouvere]

Prolly time to quit speculating on why Romney lost....HE LOST.

It doesn't really matter why he lost....

I think the problem was not marketing, but the product itself.

 

[CHNOPS]

Here's a decent run-down of Obama's tech operation. Basically says what we said here yesterday: they didn't do it so well in 2008 (was much like ORCA in failing under stress, but still allowed hand-entries), had four years to make it better, ended up making it MUCH better. Interesting 'inside baseball' stuff though, if you're into it.

http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2012/11/built-to-win-deep-inside-obamas-campaign-tech/

 

[zipman]

Here's a decent run-down of Obama's tech operation. Basically says what we said here yesterday: they didn't do it so well in 2008 (was much like ORCA in failing under stress, but still allowed hand-entries), had four years to make it better, ended up making it MUCH better. Interesting 'inside baseball' stuff though, if you're into it.

http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2012/11/built-to-win-deep-inside-obamas-campaign-tech/

Thank you. I really enjoyed reading that. Cool stuff.