The Chinese Economy Is In A Death Spiral

[Rightguide]

The Chinese Economy Is In A Death Spiral​

By
Gordon Chang


The Chinese economy – and the nation overall – is passing a series of inflection points. The most fundamental one is demographic: The Chinese population is on track for a steep decline. The most immediate inflection point is economic: China is now contracting. The country needs growth to retire monumental debt, however.

We start with the “relentless maker and breaker of civilizations,” demography. Demography will break China, which according to demographers from Xian Jiaotong University is slated to lose half its population in 45 years. At the end of this century, China could be about one-third as populous as it is now.

The country, therefore, faces the sharpest demographic decline in history in the absence of war or disease. Panicked efforts to avoid the decline—moving from a one-child policy in 2015 to a three-child policy in 2021, for instance—have proven unsuccessful in increasing birth rates

Such a precipitous fall means that, if China is going to pass America to reach the top spot, it will have to do so within, say, a decade before a falling population begins to undermine economic performance. In the next ten years, however, China’s economy is more likely to come apart.

It is already in distress. In April, the economy clearly contracted. Industrial output was down 2.9% from the same month last year. Retail sales were off 11.1%. New car sales plunged 47.6%.

Much more here:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/the-chinese-economy-is-in-a-death-spiral/

All of this is bad news for the future of China and its leader Xi.

 

[ll74]

Sounds like inflation hurtS everyone
Thanks brandon

 

[Rightguide]

Sounds like inflation hurtS everyone
Thanks brandon

It's more about Chinese demography.

 

[ll74]

It's more about Chinese demography.

Of course

 

[schism666]

is it a death spiral down a memory hole?

 

[Rotadom]

is it a death spiral down a memory hole?

 

[oggbashan]

If it is, the US (and UK) economies will also be in trouble because of our trade with China.

 

[Wrong Element]

​

We start with the “relentless maker and breaker of civilizations,” demography. Demography will break China, which according to demographers from Xian Jiaotong University is slated to lose half its population in 45 years. At the end of this century, China could be about one-third as populous as it is now.

I'm not a math expert, but this seems highly unlikely unless literally no one is being born in the entire country.

Anyway, this marks a change from the "China will be the leader of the world and it's all the libtards' fault" charge, which was the gist of a fairly lengthy thread posted here by one of our neighborhood alts just a few months ago.

 

[pecksniff]

None of this means the CCP is going to fall from power this year, or in the next 20.

 

[Chobham]

If it is, the US (and UK) economies will also be in trouble because of our trade with China.

We already are. We allowed for the out sourcing of several key industries, industries that are going to take some time to repatriate. Other industries are caught up in the 'zero Wuhan Flu' policies instituted by the CCP that are short term killers of their economy as well as those industries that relocated to China in the past.

The Chinese have started 100% testing for the Wuhan Flu at the port of Tianjin. They are testing the goods being off loaded at that port. The Chinese know as well as we do that the Wuhan Flu is not spread by surface contacts. This implies that they are looking for a foreign scapegoat to blame the resurgence of the flu on. Tianjin is almost 100% an import port, mostly food, fuels, and raw materials. Backups, which will necessarily be caused by the new policy, are going to have a profound impact on China's population and ability to produce finished goods.

This expansion of testing appears to also signal internal push backs within the CCP regarding Xi's policies and may reflect an attempt on his part to double down on his attempt to secure a third term as president. We shall see as this all unfolds.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

Their Middle Class will write the story, a story of revolution.
Once the Middle Class, especially its children realize that upward mobility has been denied to them, they act.
What's true for them is also true for a Democracy except that our revolutions/corrections occur at the ballot box.

Let's Go Brandon!
__________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

 

[Chobham]

The impending collapse is going to be interesting to watch, and dangerous.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

Very dangerous because like Putin, they may lash out.
What would happen if they first unleashed North Korea
and then launched their attack on Taiwan while we are
otherwise engaged...?
__________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

 

[icanhelp1]

We already are. We allowed for the out sourcing of several key industries, industries that are going to take some time to repatriate. Other industries are caught up in the 'zero Wuhan Flu' policies instituted by the CCP that are short term killers of their economy as well as those industries that relocated to China in the past.

The Chinese have started 100% testing for the Wuhan Flu at the port of Tianjin. They are testing the goods being off loaded at that port. The Chinese know as well as we do that the Wuhan Flu is not spread by surface contacts. This implies that they are looking for a foreign scapegoat to blame the resurgence of the flu on. Tianjin is almost 100% an import port, mostly food, fuels, and raw materials. Backups, which will necessarily be caused by the new policy, are going to have a profound impact on China's population and ability to produce finished goods.

This expansion of testing appears to also signal internal push backs within the CCP regarding Xi's policies and may reflect an attempt on his part to double down on his attempt to secure a third term as president. We shall see as this all unfolds.

Repatriation of industry will be extremely difficult with a *tax corporations to the hilt* rallying cry from progressive wingnuts lead by a Biden administration.

 

[icanhelp1]

Very dangerous because like Putin, they may lash out.
What would happen if they first unleashed North Korea
and then launched their attack on Taiwan while we are
otherwise engaged...?
__________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

Very dangerous because our economies are so intertwined, what affects them affects us and the rest of the world.

 

[oggbashan]

From the Dictator's handbook:

When in trouble internally - start a war.

 

[Chobham]

The attempts on the part of the administration of blaming industry for the inflation and the calls for "pay their fair share' are falling on deaf ears.

Regarding the 'intertwining.' The US is only reliant on exports to the extent of 10% of the economy. While large in terms of dollars it is not so large that it's unmanageable. The issue is imports and in that regard it really doesn't matter to us which nation is the source of the goods. The smarter companies started relocating out of China even before the Wuhan Flu hit mainly because Chinese labor costs have increased 14 fold over the past 30 years. The problem for a lot of those companies that relocated to China is the recovery of their investments in physical plant as well as the cost of building new plants in alternate locations. Those companies that delayed exit in the hopes that things will get better are in for a rough ride.

 

[Chobham]

From the Dictator's handbook:

When in trouble internally - start a war.

That is the big concern.

 

[JohnEngelman]

The Chinese Economy Is In A Death Spiral​

By
Gordon Chang


The Chinese economy – and the nation overall – is passing a series of inflection points. The most fundamental one is demographic: The Chinese population is on track for a steep decline. The most immediate inflection point is economic: China is now contracting. The country needs growth to retire monumental debt, however.

China has been over populated for well over a century. This has resulted in periodic famines. One of the reasons the U.S. economy became tougher for more Americans beginning with the inflationary recession of 1974 was the population increase that followed the Immigration Reform Act of 1965. Fewer people mean that there is more of everything good to go around. This is not computer science. It is as clear as the law of supply and demand.

On page 41 of "Farewell to Alms: a Brief Economic History of the World" Professor Gregory Clark has a chart that demonstrates that from 1300 to 1450 real wages for English laborers more than doubled. The reason was not an increase in productivity or a strong labor movement. The reason was that during the fourteenth century bubonic plague had killed an estimated half of the English population. With fewer people competing for jobs, wages increased. With fewer people buying stuff, prices declined.

But it did not last. With a higher standard of living more English got married. They got married earlier. They had more children. When the English population rose to what it had been before the bubonic plague epidemic, real wages declined to nearly what they had been in 1300.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-...f=cm_cr_arp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=0691141282

 

[pecksniff]

China has been over populated for well over a century.

Well, it has a different problem now.