Take stock.

[Peregrinator]

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120618-global-resources-stock-check

 

[islandman]

Does it take into account that global warming will free large tracts of land in the northern and southern-most regions of the planet for agriculture?

Or will the gain be offset by the loss of agricultural lands near the equator?

 

[Peregrinator]

Does it take into account that global warming will free large tracts of land in the northern and southern-most regions of the planet for agriculture?

Or will the gain be offset by the loss of agricultural lands near the equator?

Good questions. I'm not sure of the answers. The link has a link to their source material, though, if you feel like digging.

 

[islandman]

Good questions. I'm not sure of the answers. The link has a link to their source material, though, if you feel like digging.

I will.

Interesting topic. Much appreciated.

 

[killallhippies]

man, who needs the rain forests anyway? oxygen is like so totally overrated. also, i hear argon tastes like candy, so... just sayin'.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Yeah, we get it.

Nice chart. Reminds me of Alvin Toffler's "Future Shock."

If one holds technology constant, then this is probably spot on...

 

[islandman]

It would also be interesting to learn about the math behind these estimates. Extrapolation with regression factors built-in with a some margin of error to both?

Makes one think.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Oil and gas were supposed to be a trickle by now.


Just sayin'...

 

[Peregrinator]

Yeah, we get it.

Nice chart. Reminds me of Alvin Toffler's "Future Shock."

If one holds technology constant, then this is probably spot on...

From the link:

Of course, the assumption is that human ingenuity and market forces will prevent supplies from running out: we could create better or cheaper extraction methods, recycle materials, find alternatives to non-renewable sources, or reduce consumption.

 

[Peregrinator]

I will.

Interesting topic. Much appreciated.

A pleasure. Saw it on Facebook and thought it might be interesting.

 

[trysail]

http://www.bbc

Dear god, here we go again.


Apocalypse Not: Why You Shouldn't Worry About The End Times
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/08/ff_apocalypsenot/all
by Matt Ridley, D. Phil.
Author of Genome: The Biography of a Species in Twenty-Three Chapters.

...the prophets of apocalypse always draw a following—from the 100,000 Millerites who took to the hills in 1843, awaiting the end of the world, to the thousands who believed in Harold Camping, the Christian radio broadcaster who forecast the final rapture in both 1994 and 2011...


...Over the five decades since... 1962 and the four decades since... the Club of Rome’s The Limits to Growth in 1972, prophecies of doom on a colossal scale have become routine. Indeed, we seem to crave ever-more-frightening predictions—we are now, in writer Gary Alexander’s word, apocaholic. The past half century has brought us warnings of population explosions, global famines, plagues, water wars, oil exhaustion, mineral shortages, falling sperm counts, thinning ozone, acidifying rain, nuclear winters, Y2K bugs, mad cow epidemics, killer bees, sex-change fish, cell-phone-induced brain-cancer epidemics, and climate catastrophes...

...In 1977 President Jimmy Carter went on television and declared: “World oil production can probably keep going up for another six or eight years. But sometime in the 1980s, it can’t go up anymore. Demand will overtake production.” He was not alone in this view. The end of oil and gas had been predicted repeatedly throughout the 20th century. In 1922 President Warren Harding created the US Coal Commission, which undertook an 11-month survey that warned, “Already the output of [natural] gas has begun to wane. Production of oil cannot long maintain its present rate.” In 1956, M. King Hubbert, a Shell geophysicist, forecast that gas production in the US would peak at about 14 trillion cubic feet per year sometime around 1970.

All these predictions failed to come true. Oil and gas production have continued to rise during the past 50 years. Gas reserves took an enormous leap upward after 2007, as engineers learned how to exploit abundant shale gas. In 2011 the International Energy Agency estimated that global gas resources would last 250 years. Although it seems likely that cheap sources of oil may indeed start to peter out in coming decades, gigantic quantities of shale oil and oil sands will remain available, at least at a price. Once again, obstacles have materialized, but the apocalypse has not. Ever since Thomas Robert Malthus, doomsayers have tended to underestimate the power of innovation. In reality, driven by price increases, people simply developed new technologies, such as the horizontal drilling technique that has helped us extract more oil from shale.

It was not just energy but metals too that were supposed to run out. In 1970 Harrison Brown, a member of the National Academy of Sciences, forecast in Scientific American that lead, zinc, tin, gold, and silver would all be gone by 1990. The best-selling book The Limits to Growth was published 40 years ago by the Club of Rome, a committee of prominent environmentalists with a penchant for meeting in Italy. The book forecast that if use continued to accelerate exponentially, world reserves of several metals could run out by 1992 and help precipitate a collapse of civilization and population in the subsequent century, when people no longer had the raw materials to make machinery. These claims were soon being repeated in schoolbooks. “Some scientists estimate that the world’s known supplies of oil, tin, copper, and aluminum will be used up within your lifetime,” one read. In fact, as the results of a famous wager between Paul Ehrlich and economist Julian Simon later documented, the metals did not run out. Indeed, they grew cheaper...


more...
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/08/ff_apocalypsenot/all

Someday, you will eventually comprehend that markets are dynamic, self-correcting systems that operate best without interference from well-intentioned, but delusional, world-savers.

 

[Disgustipated]

I'm disappointed it took Crayola Boy 9 posts to take the bait.

 

[killallhippies]

yes, the market will also create bigger, better, more profitable ecosystems because that's just how awesome it is. it's like magic.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

From the link:

So, why the chart?

 

[trysail]

I'm disappointed it took Crayola Boy 9 posts to take the bait.

...and no one is surprised that dimbulb resorted to a typical ad hominem instead of addressing the topic.

 

[SalviaDivinorum]

Antimony is also used in ammunition. Just think, if it wasn't for man's "ingenuity" it would only be another 8 years until world peace.

 

[killallhippies]

aren't we possibly getting low on palladium too? i fucking swear i read that the other day.

 

[Peregrinator]

Dear god, here we go again.


Apocalypse Not: Why You Shouldn't Worry About The End Times
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/08/ff_apocalypsenot/all
by Matt Ridley, D. Phil.
Author of Genome: The Biography of a Species in Twenty-Three Chapters.






Someday, you will eventually comprehend that markets are dynamic, self-correcting systems that operate best without interference from well-intentioned, but delusional, world-savers.

What the fuck are you on about? You mean, when we run out of a non-renewable resource, your precious lucre will magically create a new one? Why is everything always about money to you? Here's a precious secret: Economics doesn't apply to everything in the universe.

So, why the chart?

Because it's interesting? Why any visual representation of data?

 

[neci]

the best reason to homestead.

 

[islandman]

You all just wait till I get nano-materials technology right.

Then you'll see.

 

[neci]

enjoy your $10 tomatoes.

 

[Disgustipated]

...and no one is surprised that dimbulb resorted to a typical ad hominem instead of addressing the topic.

It's cute. You seem to think that posting/spamming the same disproved bullshit in multiple threads over the years makes them somehow relevant.

Also, going "ad hom" while accusing me of "ad hom" is quite the ingenious ploy.

 

[killallhippies]

ah. fuck it. back to iggy.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

...

Because it's interesting? Why any visual representation of data?

Why would it be interesting if it is based on admittedly false premises?

I've seen many of these since the 60s and have yet seen one to be proven out over the course of time.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

You all just wait till I get nano-materials technology right.

Then you'll see.

Mork-A-Fil...