Rebel Forces In Belarus Have Partially Severed Railway Route Into Ukraine, Kyiv Says
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oggbashan
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There has been since the current President was re-elected in a disputed election (far more dubious than Trump's accusations about the 2020 election). It is probable that the election was rigged (by Russia).
That would include the Yugoslavian countries -- the world doesn't need any more rebellions there!
ll74
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I just hope it turns the pro Russian peeps in Moldova against Putin. If they can turn Moldova and Bellarus, I think that would be the start of a true turn against Putin all over
oggbashan
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Another war is looming in the former Yugoslavia.
Who vs. whom this time?
When will those idiots give up on the idea of "Greater Serbia"?!This is exactly what's wrong with the whole concept of nationalism.
oggbashan
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And since 1914 they have been backed by Russia.
This is exactly what's wrong with the whole concept of nationalism.
And that is how WWI started. Because Russia was determined to play a great-power role -- in that case, the role of protector of all Slavic peoples. No Serbian alliance, no world war.
LupusDei
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And now Russia imagine itself in (profoundly non-existent) great coalition with China, India and Latin America against the U.S. hegemony.
When Russia fancies itself a great power, no good ever comes of it, to anyone including Russia.
LupusDei
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As to Belarus. It's now effectively a country under hostile Russian occupation with a puppet government.
Last I know, Putin ordered Lukashenko to attack Ukraine no later than March 21. That however was already after head of Belarusian armed forces resigned over just such a possibility. Between 85%-95% of Belarusians, allegedly including soldiers, are pro-Ukraine. Soldier mutinies continued even when most top officers were replaced with Russians. So the planned enter in the war hasn't happened yet, because Lukashenko isn't crazy and understands that would be his own end. He's between hammer and hard place, damned if he do, damned if he don't, but still does nothing buying time with dubious manoeuvring.
Last I know, Putin ordered Lukashenko to attack Ukraine no later than March 21. That however was already after head of Belarusian armed forces resigned over just such a possibility. Between 85%-95% of Belarusians, allegedly including soldiers, are pro-Ukraine. Soldier mutinies continued even when most top officers were replaced with Russians. So the planned enter in the war hasn't happened yet, because Lukashenko isn't crazy and understands that would be his own end. He's between hammer and hard place, damned if he do, damned if he don't, but still does nothing buying time with dubious manoeuvring.
Is this likely to end with Lukashenko still in power?
LupusDei
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Likely? Not quite. Possibe... yes.
His position is very slippery, but he's a very experienced bullshitter. He's pretty much married (in power) with Putin, if Putin goes, he's going pretty much automatically. If he goes first, Putin's own position gets serious blow, a huge loss, perhaps irrepairable. Thus he will be vigorously assisted, even despite insubordination.
Currently, Russians use Belarus as a safe harbor. Ukrainians had (so far) few opportunities to shell or attack Russian territory, but have little reluctance to do so (they may even do tactical manoeuvring over the border at some point, I believe, and there's already alleged SOF action had taken place; and that may ramp up considerably once trees will sprout leaves), but had so far been careful not to give any credible provocation to Belarus, even though Russians launch missiles close to the border, use a paved road few miles from border as a heliport and similarly taunt Ukrainians.
Also, there's huuuge operation within Belarus to treat Russian wounded (at expense of Belarusian civilians who have lost access to the hospitals involved) and to handle corpses -- so to try and hide that from Russian public. It's said Belarusian conscripts had been tasked by washing Russian body parts off armoured vehicles (including damaged and recovered I suppose). Nothing of that is boosting Belarusian morale and willingness to step in on Russian side.
And of course, the supply routes. Russians depend on railways as they are seriously short of trucks. Railways in Belarus have their electronic controls pretty much permanently down, so those function as in occupied areas, under full army railway forces managment, yet disruptions and sabotage are frequent...
There's a lot of ways the situation can evolve. One thing to understand, Belarus doesn't actually have much of an army for real, and those are undertrained forces without any institutional experience of real conflict over a very long time. And there's occupation forces present in comparable or exceeding numbers.
If Belarusians are forced to enter Ukraine, they will desert, surrender or get slaughtered. Keeping them on the border fixing part of Ukrainian forces to face them, is the strategically smart option, and rotating them to those forward positions mixed and reinforced with Russians also prevent them fro staging armed uprising. So it seems exceedingly unlikely they would indeed be send forward.
Ukrainians already have two dedicated Belarusian units who give oaths to free Belarus and only make themselves available to Ukrainian command as allied forces. Those will grow.
Depending from battlefield success, rate of mobilization and other parameters (including availability and surplus of western armament supplies) at some point the interest to fully involve Belarus may fall in inadvertent alignment between Russia and Ukraine, making that inevitable. That may materialize as either more or less weakly opposed invasion or even assisted uprising in place. Alternatively, another popular revolution may happen first, although I would rate that as less likely at this point. Rendering Belarus unavailable for Russians in whatever way would be huge gain for Ukrainians, but they are unlikely to be able to field enough spare capacity to occupy it single handedly anytime soon if ever.
Therefore there's is in fact a way current instability may survive until after the current phase in Russo-Ukrainian war.
His position is very slippery, but he's a very experienced bullshitter. He's pretty much married (in power) with Putin, if Putin goes, he's going pretty much automatically. If he goes first, Putin's own position gets serious blow, a huge loss, perhaps irrepairable. Thus he will be vigorously assisted, even despite insubordination.
Currently, Russians use Belarus as a safe harbor. Ukrainians had (so far) few opportunities to shell or attack Russian territory, but have little reluctance to do so (they may even do tactical manoeuvring over the border at some point, I believe, and there's already alleged SOF action had taken place; and that may ramp up considerably once trees will sprout leaves), but had so far been careful not to give any credible provocation to Belarus, even though Russians launch missiles close to the border, use a paved road few miles from border as a heliport and similarly taunt Ukrainians.
Also, there's huuuge operation within Belarus to treat Russian wounded (at expense of Belarusian civilians who have lost access to the hospitals involved) and to handle corpses -- so to try and hide that from Russian public. It's said Belarusian conscripts had been tasked by washing Russian body parts off armoured vehicles (including damaged and recovered I suppose). Nothing of that is boosting Belarusian morale and willingness to step in on Russian side.
And of course, the supply routes. Russians depend on railways as they are seriously short of trucks. Railways in Belarus have their electronic controls pretty much permanently down, so those function as in occupied areas, under full army railway forces managment, yet disruptions and sabotage are frequent...
There's a lot of ways the situation can evolve. One thing to understand, Belarus doesn't actually have much of an army for real, and those are undertrained forces without any institutional experience of real conflict over a very long time. And there's occupation forces present in comparable or exceeding numbers.
If Belarusians are forced to enter Ukraine, they will desert, surrender or get slaughtered. Keeping them on the border fixing part of Ukrainian forces to face them, is the strategically smart option, and rotating them to those forward positions mixed and reinforced with Russians also prevent them fro staging armed uprising. So it seems exceedingly unlikely they would indeed be send forward.
Ukrainians already have two dedicated Belarusian units who give oaths to free Belarus and only make themselves available to Ukrainian command as allied forces. Those will grow.
Depending from battlefield success, rate of mobilization and other parameters (including availability and surplus of western armament supplies) at some point the interest to fully involve Belarus may fall in inadvertent alignment between Russia and Ukraine, making that inevitable. That may materialize as either more or less weakly opposed invasion or even assisted uprising in place. Alternatively, another popular revolution may happen first, although I would rate that as less likely at this point. Rendering Belarus unavailable for Russians in whatever way would be huge gain for Ukrainians, but they are unlikely to be able to field enough spare capacity to occupy it single handedly anytime soon if ever.
Therefore there's is in fact a way current instability may survive until after the current phase in Russo-Ukrainian war.
LupusDei
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Just those two. Well, depending how wide region you take, but that guy who put up a golden statue to his dog lives quite a bit further east. Even so, Lukashenko actually lost a perfect opportunity to retire as relatively beloved national hero if he didn't hold on for another term with a crudely fixed election the last time. The guy caught serious king complex instead, he even train a son kid soldier as a likely heir.
Chernosoth
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Everyone that needs practice before the next fossil fuel war.
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