Putin sacrifices a pawn

[LupusDei]

Is Putin ill?

And I don't mean mentally. It's impossible to retain sanity while living in Moscow's Kremlin* for so long.

My private theory is that Putin's health is deteriorating and that's why pandemic has been so hard on him socially, and why he's in such haste to (re-)make history all of a sudden.

Recognition of his own bandits' formations in eastern Ukraine is not a great move by it's on, for him. It narrow his decision space. It adds potential of certain future expenses (the flooded mines in the once busy heavy industry region are a ticking ecological time bomb, among everything). It ends the "Minsk Accords" a private interpretation of with he used to harass Ukraine, and potentially could use to gain possible long term influence in Ukraine politics. It triggered the first wave of western sanctions and incur financial and relationship losses at least short term.

And, it doesn't materially change anything on the ground, merely formalizing existing situation.

On it's own, it could be even leading to practical good for actual people in place. By analogy, the situation on the border and in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two regions of Georgia occupied by Russia in 2008 are in fact much more stable and secure since Russian and Georgian armed forces face each other directly, without local, and purportedly local gangs perpetrating terror in the middle. The same might happen in Ukraine, at least the daily artillery exchanges might stop. There's none in the Perekop (the land bridge joining Crimea peninsula to the mainland) after all. The loss of the occupied territories is mostly accepted as a fact even in Ukraine, even if it wouldn't be voiced for obvious reasons.

However, it is a pawn sacrifice that opens a combination. How it will be played, and is the whole game winnable must be of concern.

The devil is in the details as always. Putin already confirmed that he's recognized the formations with all their base documents, including their constitutions prescribed their existence in the borders of the whole Donetsk and Luhansk provinces respectively. Each control the respective districts capital (in case of Donetsk, barely, the front line is still effectively in the suburbs) but only roughly a third of the districts total territory.

Moreover, the rather large port city of Mariupol is the second largest city in Donetsk oblast and still under Ukrainian control. Thanks to heavy fights won in


(* While Kremlin is nowadays mostly understood rather unambiguously, it's not unique, the word roughly means "citadel" or "ruler's stronghold" and several other cities in Russia do have their own Kremlins once owned by princes or dukes.)

 

[pecksniff]

It adds potential of certain future expenses (the flooded mines in the once busy heavy industry region are a ticking ecological time bomb, among everything).

Pumping water out of flooded mines is no technological challenge -- it was the first practical application of the steam engine, in the early 18th Century.

 

[LupusDei]

Pumping water out of flooded mines is no technological challenge -- it was the first practical application of the steam engine, in the early 18th Century.

Yeah, but the point is, someone has to do it. I mentioned it rather as little illustration of the sorry state of the region's once famous industrial complex. As could be expected, frankly, after eight years of war, even if most of it low intensity.

Although there's legends of a particular smelter that kept functioning even when left in the no man's land in the middle of the "line of separation" bussing in workers from both sides in armoured cars despite fire exchanges around the facility, allegedly guaranteeing security through widespread bribery among fighters. I'm not sure, but think it belonged to one of the guys named today for new personal sanctions (the one that wasn't a Rotenberg).

 

[mayfly13]

and now he invaded Ukraine. Wtf.
You were right.

 

[mayfly13]

The 100 people killed (Russian and Ukrainians alike) make me feel so sad. Haven't felt like that in a while.
Those people are neighbors, brothers.

 

[Dingo_Triplesix]

I don´t think Putin is mental. In fact, the grabbing of the Ukraine is a strategic move. Otherwise there would be the real probability if not likeliness that Ukraine joins NATO sooner or later. That would mean that every dream of a new Russian Empire is impossible as long as NATO exists.

My hypothesis is that Putin has reached everything possible in Russia. He is autocratic leader for lifetime already, so what to do now? Pumping water out of mines? Boring. He thinks about his place in the history books. And if he runs this conflict now cleverly, he might even get a reputation as the founder of the next Russian Empire (the "New Order", so to say...)

I fear that Ukraine will fall within days. Otherwise it could develop into a new Afghanistan maybe. Also no desirable solution. However, lots of death and destruction down the road, I fear.

 

[LupusDei]

The 100 people killed (Russian and Ukrainians alike) make me feel so sad. Haven't felt like that in a while.
Those people are neighbors, brothers.

Yes, this is a, I'm translating from Russian, a brother-kiling war the way not even some civil wars had been.

 

[butters]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...ll-in-russia/ar-AAVm1nK?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the house arrest of two senior Federal Security Service (FSB) officers. Colonel-General Sergei Beseda, Chief of the FSB's "Fifth Service," reportedly was detained along with his deputy, Anatoly Bolyuk, charged with providing flawed intelligence about Ukraine and their improper use of operational funds. Separately, Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine's national security council chief, claimed that several Russian generals have been fired.

 

[KeithD]

The more of his inner circle he does this to, the more likely they are to get together and give him the chop. Bringing Putin down is their clearest exit strategy now. I'm sure he knows that. Poor baby.

 

[LLCox]

Pootin is what happens when you make yourself ruler for life. Things are not going to good for Xi either and fat Kim is well, Fat Kim.

 

[pecksniff]

I don´t think Putin is mental. In fact, the grabbing of the Ukraine is a strategic move. Otherwise there would be the real probability if not likeliness that Ukraine joins NATO sooner or later. That would mean that every dream of a new Russian Empire is impossible as long as NATO exists.

What is mental is to want a new Russian Empire. What Russia should want, at this point in its history, is to join both the EU and NATO, and make a definite permanent commitment to being a European country, not something eastern and other and (to use a 19th-Century term) Slavophile.

 

[KeithD]

What is mental is to want a new Russian Empire. What Russia should want, at this point in its history, is to join both the EU and NATO, and make a definite permanent commitment to being a European country, not something eastern and other and (to use a 19th-Century term) Slavophile.

True. But what happened is that Putin, from the Old Soviet era, happened. They've got to get rid of Putin now to recover where they need to go--and where, surely, most Russians want to go.

 

[pecksniff]

Moreover, the rather large port city of Mariupol is the second largest city in Donetsk oblast and still under Ukrainian control. Thanks to heavy fights won in

From what I've heard recently, Mariupol is now being pounded to dust.

 

[JohnEngelman]

What is mental is to want a new Russian Empire. What Russia should want, at this point in its history, is to join both the EU and NATO, and make a definite permanent commitment to being a European country, not something eastern and other and (to use a 19th-Century term) Slavophile.

Putin should have learned from the history of the Soviet Union that a country does not benefit from occupying resentful nations who want to be independent. We benefited from the Mexican War because the half of Mexico that we annexed was lightly inhabited. The Philippines were not lightly inhabited, so we had the wisdom of eventually granting the Philippines independence.

 

[JohnEngelman]

True. But what happened is that Putin, from the Old Soviet era, happened. They've got to get rid of Putin now to recover where they need to go--and where, surely, most Russians want to go.

From what I have read of the Russians who support the War in the Ukraine is that they are the same kind of people as the Americans who supported the War in Vietnam long after there was any rational reason to keep occupying South Vietnam.

 

[jomar]

From what I have read of the Russians who support the War in the Ukraine is that they are the same kind of people as the Americans who supported the War in Vietnam long after there was any rational reason to keep occupying South Vietnam.

From what I've seen the Russians who support the war in Ukraine are getting their info from the state media, not the truth about what's really going on

 

[pecksniff]

From what I've seen the Russians who support the war in Ukraine are getting their info from the state media, not the truth about what's really going on

Do Russians have access to any non-state sources of information, other than their relatives in the army?

 

[jomar]

Do Russians have access to any non-state sources of information, other than their relatives in the army?

Not that I'm aware of. They're getting info from relatives in Ukraine and elsewhere. There's disbelief and family arguments over the state "news" and the relatives accounts.

 

[JohnnySavage]

I think Putin is going to use a tactical nuke - just to see the West's response. In my opinion, he's pushing to find the limits.

And the West won't respond. There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth, but he can do whatever he wants to Ukraine; including detonating a small nuke.

 

[oggbashan]

Do Russians have access to any non-state sources of information, other than their relatives in the army?

Yes, but only the younger tech-savvy kids. They are having rows with their parents and grandparents who believe the Russian state media.

One of our friends, a younger widower, married a Russian woman a couple of years ago. She had been working in London for about five years before they met. Since the Russian war on Ukraine, she has decided to change her first names by deed poll to English versions of her Russian forenames. She is expecting twins in a month. They will have English names. She can no longer talk to her parents or grandparents since they believe implicitly in Putin's lies.

Her brothers, still in Russia, and in their thirties, also cannot speak to parents and grandparents and want to leave Russia as soon as possible, along with many other younger Russians.

 

[KeithD]

I think Putin is going to use a tactical nuke - just to see the West's response. In my opinion, he's pushing to find the limits.

And the West won't respond. There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth, but he can do whatever he wants to Ukraine; including detonating a small nuke.

What Putin has done in Ukraine is both to mark him and his country as universal pariahs (which surely isn't what Russian citizens want. They want the lifestyle West Europeans have) and, as a bonus, to show for all to see how he and his buddies have degraded the power of the Russian military significantly (which surely isn't what Putin and his generals wanted revealed).

 

[pecksniff]

I think Putin is going to use a tactical nuke - just to see the West's response. In my opinion, he's pushing to find the limits.

And the West won't respond. There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth, but he can do whatever he wants to Ukraine; including detonating a small nuke.

If he does that in Kyiv, he can decapitate the government.

 

[Dingo_Triplesix]

What is mental is to want a new Russian Empire. What Russia should want, at this point in its history, is to join both the EU and NATO, and make a definite permanent commitment to being a European country, not something eastern and other and (to use a 19th-Century term) Slavophile.

Agreed in the sense that Putins mind and believe seems to be outdated, fitting better in the 19th century than the 21st. But to think in an old fashioned way is not regarded as mental, afaik. Otherwise the asylums would be veeeery crowded...

 

[mayfly13]

Is Putin ill?

My private theory is that Putin's health is deteriorating and that's why pandemic has been so hard on him socially, and why he's in such haste to (re-)make history all of a sudden.

First of all, you were right all along. I admired your wealth of knowledge, but I mistakenly thought you were still stuck in the 1980's with an obsession about the Russian boogeyman.
The world should have paid more attention to Baltic press and to Georgia.




In saying that, and while Putin was Always planning to incorporate Ukraine at some point in the future,
I feel that Zelensky's actions (and to a lesser degree, the West's) made the invasion occur sooner.

Remember that Zelensky was planning to clamp down on minorities rights in 2021, action that already started in 2017.
--Since 2017, minorities in Ukraine are not allowed their own radio station, unless more than 64% are in and about Ukraine.
--Zelenski was planning a law that claimed that minorities were not native people, or something like that.

Of course it was all about trying to get back Crimea and Donbas, but still...
And neither Zelenski, nor the West were disposed to investigate the mass graves of Russians in Donbas(identified via dna) , found in 2021.
Yet when mass graves of Ukrainians were found prior to that, Ukraine and the West did investigate.

 

[mayfly13]

I'm correcting myself:

I don't think that Putin gives two fucks about the Russian civilians abducted, killed and thrown into mass graves by Azov, in Donbas.
I think that when he found out, he rubbed his palms with excitement, because it gave him a justification to invade & gradually annex Ukraine.


But I DO believe that Zelensky & the previous Ukrainian pm,
in their stupidity (thinking it will stop Russian imperialism) and subconscious nationalism
are one of the reasons why this atrocious war is still being legitimized by so many lay-Russians.

It's not just Russian disinformation or lay-Russian superiority.
--- Indeed, many Russians DO feel just as superior as many Brits feel towards 'oggs and pakis', and welcome attempts 'to make Russia great again'
--- but many are just regular benign folks who are trying to get by.
How would You feel if UN refuses to investigate your people's mass graves (in Donbas), or if some other country interdicts your minorities from using their language or traditions?