Oh Look!! A War!

[rgraham666]

Not Bush, McCain.

The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming! Only a strong leader can save us!

 

[keeblercrumb]

Dreams of Polina

Listen, we knew this was going to happen. We have satellites up there that can see troop movements. We saw the Russians there. We knew about it. We could have told the Georgians but we didn't.

Apparently we'd made a deal with Putin to stay out of it. To make a little lip protest and that's it. That's the only explanation that fits. It was a done deal.

What Bush gets out of it...?

Actually Zoot, you are wrong. The Georgians have been bitching about the build-up for months... they've known about it all along.... WE ignored them.

This was all in the news for months; albeit minor news... along with Russia having shot down Gerorgian drones, etc.

I still have no idea why Georgia did what they did..... they somehow got sucked into invading S. Ossetia because of the vaunted S. Ossetian army kept shelling them.... Maybe it was someone on the ground but, if so, WE are training them... WE have advisors there... WE should have stopped them!!!!

But, of course, we didn't.

-KC

 

[Elianna]

Actually Zoot, you are wrong. The Georgians have been bitching about the build-up for months... they've known about it all along.... WE ignored them.

This was all in the news for months; albeit minor news... along with Russia having shot down Gerorgian drones, etc.

I still have no idea why Georgia did what they did..... they somehow got sucked into invading S. Ossetia because of the vaunted S. Ossetian army kept shelling them.... Maybe it was someone on the ground but, if so, WE are training them... WE have advisors there... WE should have stopped them!!!!

But, of course, we didn't.

-KC

Good to see you and your rhetoric are still alive. How are ya KC?

 

[Pure]

it seems to me that the admin rhetoric was maybe misunderstood by the Georgians.

IF the Georgians know Russia is looking for an excuse or reason to invade, why furnish it?

there seem to be lots of miscalculations both by the US admin and the Georgian gov't.

it's hard to picture a resolution to the mess. can there be a return to the status quo ante? it seems dubious. assuming the contest is over russian hegemony over states at its borders, that has been RE asserted in spades.
the Georgian gov't will necessarily be more cautious in the future, and may lose its dream of having Western allies. further, Georgia's ideas of retaining control of s ossetia are weakened. ASSUMING the Russians either want S. Ossetia for themselves, OR want it to be an independent entity within Georgia that is a constant burr under the saddle, they are going to get their wants.

 

[Varian P]

An interesting analysis of the situation from The Nation.

 

[rgraham666]

An interesting analysis of the situation from The Nation.

Good one. An interesting read.

 

[Pure]

note

scheer's article on the interesting coincidence of timing is worth a read, if a teensy bit paranoid. a top advisor to McCain has worked for the Georgian cause for some time.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080818/scheer2

 

[3113]

I see the Bush Administration has sent in Condi Rice to deal with this. Go Condi! Whadda think the odds are of her getting run over by a tank? Accidently of course.

 

[rgraham666]

I'd feel sorry for the tank.

 

[scheherazade_79]

Interesting to see that the US military will be flying aid in to Georgia. I'd like to think they're doing it out of the goodness of their hearts, but sadly it probably has more to do with rattling Russia's cage.

Wonder what would happen if one of the US jets were "accidentally" shot down by the Russians?

 

[scheherazade_79]

The other thing to say is that most Russians who are fed on a staple diet of state news believe that Georgia was carrying out ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia.

Before Russia's "intervention" there was a beautiful little piece of propaganda, in which Russian children were invited to stage a candlelit vigil in support of the poor South Ossetians getting butchered by the Georgians.

I don't know what's really going on, or whether there are "good guys" and "bad guys" in this. I can pretend to be shocked by the way the Russian media seems to be manipulating its people, but the bottom line is that the American and British media pull exactly the same kind of stunts.

Think of Bush at the end of the war in Iraq, swooping down from the clouds like the Messiah and landing on a warship just off the coast of San Diego to announce the success of Good against Evil. Hitler did the same kind of thing in Triumph des Willens.

We're just pawns in all of this, who are manipulated and encouraged to view certain events in certain ways. Maybe in 30-40 years we'll find out what really went on in Georgia, and it'll come as a horrible surprise. Just like the CIA plot in the 1960s to blow up a plane full of US spring-breakers and blame it on the Cubans / Russians...

 

[dr_mabeuse]

The other thing to say is that most Russians who are fed on a staple diet of state news believe that Georgia was carrying out ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia.

Before Russia's "intervention" there was a beautiful little piece of propaganda, in which Russian children were invited to stage a candlelit vigil in support of the poor South Ossetians getting butchered by the Georgians.

I don't know what's really going on, or whether there are "good guys" and "bad guys" in this. I can pretend to be shocked by the way the Russian media seems to be manipulating its people, but the bottom line is that the American and British media pull exactly the same kind of stunts.

Think of Bush at the end of the war in Iraq, swooping down from the clouds like the Messiah and landing on a warship just off the coast of San Diego to announce the success of Good against Evil. Hitler did the same kind of thing in Triumph des Willens.

We're just pawns in all of this, who are manipulated and encouraged to view certain events in certain ways. Maybe in 30-40 years we'll find out what really went on in Georgia, and it'll come as a horrible surprise. Just like the CIA plot in the 1960s to blow up a plane full of US spring-breakers and blame it on the Cubans / Russians...

It's no exaggeration to say that in war, truth is the first casualty.

Reports I've heard from the ground say that reports of Georgian atrocities against Osettians are greatly exaggerated, while Osettians are driving Georgians from their home and setting houses and even livestock on fire with gasoline. Georgians are operating as military units while Ossetians operate as freebooting militias following the Russians.

 

[voluptuary_manque]

And now for a European take on the situation: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7562611.stm

 

[rgraham666]

This is one of those cases where I have to wonder what the people on all sides of this stupid conflict were thinking.

Humans.

 

[trysail]

(Fair Use Excerpt)

Russia's War With Georgia May Revive U.S.-Europe Rift
By Mark Deen and Reed V. Landberg

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's attack on Georgia may reopen a U.S. rift with European Union leaders over how the trans-Atlantic alliance should deal with its main Cold War adversary.

While President George W. Bush dispatched U.S. air and naval forces to deliver ``vigorous'' humanitarian aid to Georgia, the EU's foreign ministers have carefully avoided assigning blame for the conflict and plan to send non-military monitors to the region only later this year.

Europe's caution in responding to Russia's first major offensive since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union illustrates differences with the U.S. over the military role of the EU and the development of trade and energy links with Russia.

``Both Europe and the U.S. have serious concerns about Russia and will try to sing from the same hymn sheet,'' said Mick Cox, an international relations professor at the London School of Economics. ``Yet the differences of nuance are there, and they matter. Russia is keen to exploit them.''

With memories of the trans-Atlantic spat over Iraq still fresh, all parties want to avoid a repeat. Even so, the EU's proximity to Russia and economics make it harder for the bloc to rebuff its neighbor...

***​

...Trade between Russia and the EU jumped 23 percent in 2007 to $284 billion, making the EU Russia's biggest trading partner and Russia the bloc's third-largest partner. The EU also depends on Russia to supply a quarter of its natural gas...

***​

...The EU sought to improve already-strained ties with Russia by opening up a major round of talks in June on a framework to govern relations.

That's also why French President Nicolas Sarkozy flew to Moscow this week and sent his foreign minister to Tbilisi on behalf of the EU to help broker a cease-fire. Modifying peace proposals under Russian pressure, Sarkozy touted an accord and said he wanted to avoid re-igniting the Cold War.

The line from the U.S. has been harder. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said yesterday that the U.S. will re-examine ``the entire gamut'' of its military cooperation with Russia and canceled joint military exercises. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Russia that any breach of the cease-fire would deepen Russian ``isolation.''

``Condoleezza Rice and Mr. Gates forget that Russia is our next-door neighbor,'' German Social Democrat lawmaker Gert Weisskirchen said in an interview. ``We can't afford and don't want to address Russia in terms that risk reviving Cold War sentiments.''

One consequence of the South Ossetia conflict may be that membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for Georgia will be put off ``for some time,'' said Charles Esser, an energy analyst at the International Crisis Group in Brussels.

Bush pushed at NATO's summit in Bucharest last April for putting Georgia and Ukraine on a fast track to join, a plan opposed by Germany and France. Eventually NATO offered them a looser partnership. Russia called even that plan a ``direct threat'' to its national interest.

``All the talk of NATO enlargement is over,'' Cox said. ``The powerful voices against it in Europe will bring it to a halt.'' NATO foreign ministers will gather Aug. 19 in Brussels to discuss how to respond to the situation.

In parallel to the falling out over Iraq in 2003, divisions exist in Europe over how hard a line to take with Russia. Countries subject to Soviet rule during the Cold War are pushing for a tougher response, while the richer Western Europeans want to play down conflict...

***​

...``The divisions within Europe are more pronounced than those between two sides of the Atlantic,'' said Charles A. Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. ``There's a host of new democracies in Europe that continue to worry they will again fall prey to Russian expansion''

Poland and the Baltic states, all once held within the Soviet Union's embrace and now members of the European Union, rallied behind Georgia yesterday.

``Russia's aggression against sovereign neighboring country Georgia shows to the whole world that the peaceful period after the end of the Cold War has ended,'' Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip said. ``Russia's actions increase security risks.''

Poland today won a U.S. pledge to help improve its defenses in exchange for basing interceptor missiles on its territory. Estonia's government yesterday said it will boost defense spending.

With Europe's two largest military powers, Britain and France, struggling to meet commitments abroad, the softer EU tone also reflects lack of force. The British army is overstretched with about 11,000 combat troops spread between Afghanistan and Iraq, while France's similar-sized fighting force is spread among Afghanistan, Lebanon, the former Yugoslavia and Africa.

Even the U.S., which has 150,000 soldiers tied down in Iraq and a force of 36,000 in Afghanistan, probably can't spare many more to shore up Georgia.

``The Americans can't do very much,'' said Jan Techau, a security analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. ``The Europeans are united in powerlessness.''

 

[pshelfer]

KC-
If you don't think those interested in energy aren't keenly aware of what's going on in Georgia and its potential ramifications for transit of Caspian petroleum (the BTC pipeline [1MMBOPD] runs through South Georgia), you'd be mistaken.

Here's a sample of one from about 200 posts on the subject (from an energy message board that I follow):

"If Europe allows Georgia to be crushed, they deserve to be screwed time and again by the Russians. About 10 times in the last two years Russia has hijacked various European countries, using energy as a weapon. If those gutless pussies allow Georgia to fall under Russian control, than they deserve the fate of having Russians have them by the balls over every dispute."​

There are a lot of would-be military geniuses and armchair warriors out there and they are doing some serious saber-rattling. As is frequently the case in situations like this, facts are hard to come by, but it appears that Mikheil Saakashvili may have made a serious miscalculation.

It's quite possible that a lot of people need to take a "chill pill" before things get irretrievably out of control.

While the saying may be a cliche, "Those that ignore history are bound to repeat it" it still seems to ring true here... Or is it just me.

 

[torchthebitch]

And now for a European take on the situation: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7562611.stm

Thanks but don't assign their opinion to me.

 

[rgraham666]

Thanks but don't assign their opinion to me.

Um. She did?

 

[voluptuary_manque]

Thanks but don't assign their opinion to me.

I didn't.