looks like a busy hurricane season

[butters]

given the record ocean temps and a swift change into La Niña, even with a softening of the modelling predictions.

Colorado State hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach, the author of the forecast, knows what the models show him about the hurricane season that starts June 1, but he's a bit incredulous it could really be that busy.

"We're coming out with a very aggressive forecast: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes," said Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the atmospheric science department at Colorado State University. "And even that is so undercutting all the model guidance."

A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, and seven spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020.

hold onto your hats


https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/t...1&cvid=cf15889e9799483cab06c6fbc3525a2c&ei=63

 

[stxjimmy]

given the record ocean temps and a swift change into La Niña, even with a softening of the modelling predictions.


hold onto your hats


https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/t...1&cvid=cf15889e9799483cab06c6fbc3525a2c&ei=63

Are you in an affected area?

 

[gtnlynn]

We are being warned here on the Texas coast, too. Our generator was just serviced, so we are ready.

 

[neci]

when we were little we would get hurricane tracking charts from the grocery store and track everything that entered the gulf. good times.

 

[Lady2020]

I can only hope these warnings end up being duds.

 

[butters]

Are you in an affected area?

we don't do too badly here... south middle TN, not far from the state line with Al. We do get a fair bit of windiness, and have had trees down before but that's generally more down to the high winds along with storms spawning tornadic activity... but the tornadoes tend to miss us by a few miles. might be to do with all the hills and dips and bendy roads.

not looking great for the areas that see more impact, though these are trending a little more to the north and east lately.

 

[stxjimmy]

we don't do too badly here... south middle TN, not far from the state line with Al. We do get a fair bit of windiness, and have had trees down before but that's generally more down to the high winds along with storms spawning tornadic activity... but the tornadoes tend to miss us by a few miles. might be to do with all the hills and dips and bendy roads.

not looking great for the areas that see more impact, though these are trending a little more to the north and east lately.

Sounds quite random as to whenever or not you get flattened.

 

[butters]

Sounds quite random as to whenever or not you get flattened.

my husband and his mother have lived here for around 63 years and not been flattened yet... the trees that came down were big ones in the veggie garden and out by the shop; there's only one potentially harmful tree left close enough to the house itself, the others got topped or removed.

 

[stxjimmy]

my husband and his mother have lived here for around 63 years and not been flattened yet... the trees that came down were big ones in the veggie garden and out by the shop; there's only one potentially harmful tree left close enough to the house itself, the others got topped or removed.

Anecdotally has global warming increased the risk?

 

[butters]

Anecdotally has global warming increased the risk?

for sure

 

[FGB]

I wonder if the ole Carport will still stand up to a class II Hurricane.

Generator ready.

 

[MidKnight1378]

I’ve lived in the Tampa Bay Area of Florida for 51 years and every year the forecasters always say it’s going to be a busy hurricane season. Some times they’re right, some times they’re wrong. Either way I stay prepared, we have a 200 gallon water tank, plenty of first aid supplies, a pantry full of canned goods, plenty of anmmunition, and over 200 lbs of charcoal for cooking. We’re also high enough so flooding not an issue.