Last Minute Election Predictions

[amicus]

1 A.M. here on the west coast, 4 A.M. on the east coast where polls open in a few hours.

I am about to retire for the evening and will be engaged most of the day and will miss the first early returns due to the time difference of three hours.

But, I thought, say it now or forever hold your peace...

A day long overview of pollsters and predictions on cable news and major newspapers provided a concensus that Democrats would gain control of the House and probably the Senate, although margins varied and the Senate remains somewhat in question.

That matches well with 6th year, off year elections where the incumbent party loses a substantial number of seats in both houses.

But, conventional wisdom be damned. I predict the Republicans will maintain majority status in both the House and the Senate.

If that by chance happens, I will explain my reasoning; if it does not then it is of no matter.

Let it all hang out. Post your predictions and see how you fare.

amicus...

 

[drksideofthemoon]

What happened?

In my opinion, the failed policy in Iraq, and corruption did the Repubs in...

 

[S-Des]

What happened?

In my opinion, the failed policy in Iraq, and corruption did the Repubs in...

I think it's deeper than that. A lot of people are concerned with border security, and Bush is much closer to the Dems (and the Republicans put off doing anything so they'd have an election issue for 2008). They had a number of things they could have tackled, but seemed to run scared (except on stupid issues like Terry Schiavo...gee, big gamble there ).

Bush really hurt himself with his inability to admit he was wrong. I think it all started with Katrina and Brown. He patted Rumsfeld on the back all the way up to when he replaced him. That's the wrong message to send when we're seeing things go bad. In all, he came off like he didn't understand the good policies from the bad. No one in the Republican ranks wanted to challenge him, so they suffered. Dems voted hard against them and Republicans didn't work that hard for them. Still, they barely lost in a number of races (one where people wondered aloud if Bush's last minute visit actually cost them the election). Democrats better do a good job, or 2008 will be anybody's game.

 

[elsol]

Would a prediction not coming true be considered Amicus being wrong about something?

Say it isn't so...

Seriously, the walls of my world are crumbling.

 

[Pure]

since ami is glum, i will state his reasoning.

the objectively 'right' side is almost by definition stronger. Reps are closest to being 'objectively right.'

the social left agenda, voters will realize (see the ann coulter excerpt in the Party thread), is basically surrender, raise taxes, and destroy the family through licensing perversion, and voters will see through all attempts to package the Dems program as at all conservative.

in the 11th hour, despite the polls, Amerians are going to vote for strength, victory, the American Way; including Man-Woman marriage.

 

[Kandi]

1 A.M. here on the west coast, 4 A.M. on the east coast where polls open in a few hours.

I am about to retire for the evening and will be engaged most of the day and will miss the first early returns due to the time difference of three hours.

But, I thought, say it now or forever hold your peace...

A day long overview of pollsters and predictions on cable news and major newspapers provided a concensus that Democrats would gain control of the House and probably the Senate, although margins varied and the Senate remains somewhat in question.

That matches well with 6th year, off year elections where the incumbent party loses a substantial number of seats in both houses.

But, conventional wisdom be damned. I predict the Republicans will maintain majority status in both the House and the Senate.

If that by chance happens, I will explain my reasoning; if it does not then it is of no matter.

Let it all hang out. Post your predictions and see how you fare.

amicus...

Good call. Do you think Rummy will go the distance?