Kramer the racist

[Marquis]

look at the quote again. there IS a 20% chance of the case being held by her.

but he's saying there's only a 20% chance eliminating another case will raise the banker's offer.

"keep in mind there's only a 20% chance of this happening."

this refers to the bankers offer going up.

Now I have to teach you English too?!

The only guaranteed way she can do better than the proposed amount is to actually be holding the $300,000 case, because if she were to remove more cases and reveal amounts less than $300,000, the banker’s offer would likely go up to compensate for the increasing mean. Keep in mind, however, that there’s only a 20% probability of this happening!

This refers to "the only guaranteed way she can do better than the proposed amount," which is "to actually be holding the $300,000 case."

 

[paganangel]

Now I have to teach you English too?!



This refers to "the only guaranteed way she can do better than the proposed amount," which is "to actually be holding the $300,000 case."

then the poor english is on his part. the natural assumption would be that the pronoun refers to the previous clause.

 

[Marquis]

then the poor english is on his part. the natural assumption would be that the pronoun refers to the previous clause.

Fair enough.

But the context eliminates any ambiguity.

Do you understand everything now?

I apologize if I've been rude or short during this conversation, it was a bad habit while I was a teacher too. I'm feeling relaxed now, if there's anything you don't understand, I'll try to explain.

 

[Marquis]

At this point I'm guessing you have no questions.

And no, "Jees, you were right Marquis, sorry for giving you such a hard time."

 

[glamorilla]

i'm sure underneath it all he's a really good guy and like, he's always been rilly, rilly nice to me.

 

[wazhazhe]

he undercuts the average of the remaining suitcases almost every time. that may never happen.
high end math cats will tell you that if you watch the show enough times you'll see patterns emerge.

I’ve never called myself a “high end math cat” but for purposes of this discussion, I suppose I qualify. If the offer is usually less than the average amount then waiting for an offer over the mean is the best strategy.

Very well.

.01 + 400,000 + 500,000 + 750,000 + 1,000,000 = 2,650,000.01

2,650,000.01 / 5 = 530,000

Expected value = $530,000

If the banker offers you $530,001, you take it.

If the banker offers you $529,999, you take your chances with the suitcases.

Your brother will not disagree.

yes he will.

the odds are 3 out of five that you will do better if you eliminate one more case. they're in your favor.

edited to add, if you think that's too big a risk work out subsequent alternatives and combos longhand...the longer you play, the better your odds.

Each play is a discrete event. Decisions made on one play do not affect the odds for subsequent plays. The mean may increase but there is no guarantee the offer will. Playing the mean will provide the best odds for winning.