Historian who predicted Trump's election now predicts his impeachment

[KingOrfeo]

Newsweek:

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University, came to national prominence after continuing his streak of predicting the outcome of every presidential election since 1984 last November. He also has written a book on Trump called The Case for Impeachment. It is no surprise then that he sees this week’s events as adding further fuel to the case for an investigation.

“He arguably could be impeached now,” he told Newsweek Friday. “Arguably he’s already obstructed justice and already violated the emoluments clause [regarding receiving gifts from foreign governments]. I’m not saying we should impeach him now, I’m calling for an impeachment investigation.”

<snip>

“We see credible reporting that he may well be guilty of obstructing justice in the FBI investigation, first by demanding loyalty to him personally from the man investigating him,” Lichtman said. “That’s pretty blatant obstruction of justice. And then by firing director Comey and then in effect lying initially, or having his team lie in his direction, about the reasons for the firing."

<snip>

The two modern presidents who came closest to removal from office—Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton—were both accused of obstruction of justice. But Lichtman says Trump’s conduct is “vastly more important” than the allegations against Clinton over testimony about Monica Lewinsky and even more serious than the cover-up of the break-in at Democratic Party headquarters that brought down Nixon.

“The only parallel is Watergate, and this is much more serious,” Lichtman said. “What Trump is involved in is more serious because it involves a foreign power and the national security of the country.”

<snip>

Ultimately, it will take widespread Republican dissension to impeach Trump, given that they control both the House and the Senate, something that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

But it may not even get that far, says Lichtman, who believes impeachment proceedings against Trump are inevitable. Nixon resigned before impeachment proceedings formally began. And Trump, he believes, could do similarly, particularly given the lifestyle he enjoys outside of the White House.

“Throughout his business career, Donald Trump was the master of avoiding accountability,” he said. “If he is true to his M.O. of more than 40 years, he may avoid accountability again by resigning. After all, it’s not like he goes back to some hovel out there in the woods.”

 

[adrina]

He'll have to become a threat to the republican party. They won't do squat about anything oversight wise on him unless and until he becomes toxic to the party. Even 2018 isn't any guarantee with this crazy gerrymandering BS.

 

[jaF0]

They gonna do it, they gotta get on with it. So far it's all been talk.

Gotta dump the Confederate Attorney General too.

 

[james_1957]

How a new Clinton presidency will change American politics forever

By Allan J. Lichtman, contributor - 10/22/16 09:00 AM EDT

I won’t go so far as to make a final prediction on the outcome of the 2016 race. My historical analysis indicates that 2016 should be a change election, but Donald Trump is a history shattering candidate who seems intent on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

It is therefore worthwhile to speculate on what might happen to our country and politics if 2016 proves to be a “wave election” with Clinton thumping Donald Trump. As you’ll see, the consequences would be profound.

Speculate? He speculates! Just like you do, KO!

In the wake of a blowout loss, Trump would surely accept the verdict of the people. Or would he? So far Trump has hedged and firmly committed only to accepting the election’s outcome “If I win.” A truly breathtaking concession. Still, he may not want to marginalize himself by refusing to recognize a clear victory for his opponent. After all, he will still have a brand to defend. Another run at age 74, like Bernie Sanders ? Never say never.

Democrats will almost surely regain control of the Senate, which requires only a four-seat gain if they control the vice presidency. Democrats will likely gain seats in Wisconsin and Illinois and hold their seats in Nevada and Colorado. Embattled GOP Republicans in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Florida are running ahead of Trump, but are not likely to survive a Clinton wave. Democrats have a chance as well to gain seats in usually red Arizona, Indiana and Missouri, where the races are currently close.

Oops! That didn't happen.

With an electoral mandate and party control of the Senate, Clinton will have reasonable latitude to nominate the crucial tie-breaking vote on the 4 to 4 deadlocked Supreme Court. She will create the first Supreme Court with a liberal majority since the 1960s. She then may solidify this majority if Justice Kennedy and perhaps Justice Thomas leave the Court.

Oops! Clinton won't be nominating anyone.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-bl...nton-presidency-will-change-american-politics

 

[OldJourno]

Yeah, that Lichtman is right all the time, except when he's wrong.
Nice bit of research there, KO.

 

[Porkwarrior]

Yeah, that Lichtman is right all the time, except when he's wrong.
Nice bit of research there, KO.

Yeah, it's been fun watching Trump haters madly masturbating over Lichtman this week. Somebody must've made him go viral on Facebook or something.

Meh scratch & sniff a little deeper than a Newsweek article, and I'll take the octopus that has picked the last three World Cup winners.

 

[FGB]

"Article II of the United States Constitution states in Section 4 that "The President, Vice President, and all civil Officers of the United States shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes and Misdemeanors." The House of Representatives has the sole power of impeaching, while the United States Senate has the sole power to try all impeachments. The removal of impeached officials is automatic upon conviction in the Senate. In Nixon v. United States (1993), the Supreme Court determined that the federal judiciary cannot review such proceedings."

 

[KingOrfeo]

He'll have to become a threat to the republican party.

He is already a very extreme annoyance to them. That might be enough.

 

[KingOrfeo]

Speculate? He speculates! Just like you do, KO!

What else can anyone do regarding the future?

 

[KingOrfeo]

From last December:

Well, in a nutshell, Prof. Lichtman says:

1. He correctly predicted Trump's victory because he ignored the polls and pundits. He developed his predictive model by studying every presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and compiled a list of 11 true-false questions about the party holding the WH at the time of the election -- e.g., did the incumbent POTUS have any dazzling domestic-policy achievements in his second term? (Obama didn't.) Did he have any major foreign policy achievements in his second term, comparable to killing bin Laden in his first term? (Obama didn't.) He says Trump won not because of the Trump campaign but in spite of it.

2. Less scientifically, he now predicts Trump will be impeached because candidates do not change once they take office. It's like a woman deciding to marry a man in hopes of changing him, it never works. What you see is what you get. And Trump has a long track record of playing fast and loose with the law. Also, he's an unpredictable wild card. You never know what he's going to do. Congressional Republicans don't like that, they like control, and they would much rather see a predictable figure like Pence in the Oval Office.

 

[adrina]

He is already a very extreme annoyance to them. That might be enough.

Nope. He'd have to drive voters away.

From what you've seen, what would move the republican voters against Trump?

 

[Beco]

Its all in the bible codes

Rabbi Matityahu Glazerson, an international Bible codes expert who has written 30 books, says it’s a fait accompli for Donald Trump. He will beat Hillary Clinton on Nov. 8 and go on to become the next president of the United States.
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2016/11/rabbi-sees-donald-trump-ascendancy-in-bible-codes/#WYmyyDCa7fj5skx9.99

 

[KingOrfeo]

Nope. He'd have to drive voters away.

From what you've seen, what would move the republican voters against Trump?

They don't matter. If Trump is impeached, which won't happen unless the Pub majority in Congress decides to do it, what can his voters do about it? Vote against Pub incumbents in 2018? That would be cutting off their noses, wouldn't it? They have already exhausted the potential of primarying "moderate" Pubs from the right; the Freedom Caucus is not growing any bigger and never will. They'll have to vote for Dems or stay home. Either works for me.

 

[adrina]

They don't matter. If Trump is impeached, which won't happen unless the Pub majority in Congress decides to do it, what can his voters do about it? Vote against Pub incumbents in 2018? That would be cutting off their noses, wouldn't it? They have already exhausted the potential of primarying "moderate" Pubs from the right; the Freedom Caucus is not growing any bigger and never will. They'll have to vote for Dems or stay home. Either works for me.

Right now there is no political will nor any political reason for the current house republicans to even think about impeachment. Only if pollsters start seeing tanking numbers and their phones/emails light up like a Christmas tree from pissed off voters will they even think about separating themselves from Trump.

Until then, he's safe. Which might not be too bad of a thing considering the next in line is Pence.

 

[KingOrfeo]

Right now there is no political will nor any political reason for the current house republicans to even think about impeachment.

Of course there is: They don't know how to deal with Trump. He's not a pol. He doesn't know how the system works. He doesn't know what he's doing. He's unpredictable. He's emotional and irrational. And he's embarrassing them.

He will cheerfully sign every bill they send him, but so would Pence; they will see Pence as a definite improvement.

 

[Beco]

Of course there is: They don't know how to deal with Trump. He's not a pol. He doesn't know how the system works. He doesn't know what he's doing. He's unpredictable. He's emotional and irrational. And he's embarrassing them.

He will cheerfully sign every bill they send him, but so would Pence; they will see Pence as a definite improvement.

Ok Maxine Waters, tell me what they are going to impeach Trump on?

 

[KingOrfeo]

Ok Maxine Waters, tell me what they are going to impeach Trump on?

That was covered in the OP.

 

[adrina]

Of course there is: They don't know how to deal with Trump. He's not a pol. He doesn't know how the system works. He doesn't know what he's doing. He's unpredictable. He's emotional and irrational. And he's embarrassing them.

He will cheerfully sign every bill they send him, but so would Pence; they will see Pence as a definite improvement.

Then why hasn't it started? Why aren't they clamoring for an independent investigator? Why has not a single republican put forth the need for impeachment hearings?

Wanting it does not make it so.

 

[KingOrfeo]

They're not quite that fed up with him just yet. And it is never an easy thing for a Congresscritter to move against a sitting POTUS of his own party.

But all it takes is for 22 House Republicans to line up behind impeachment -- all the Dems and independents would.

 

[adrina]

They're not quite that fed up with him just yet. And it is never an easy thing for a Congresscritter to move against a sitting POTUS of his own party.

But all it takes is for 22 House Republicans to line up behind impeachment -- all the Dems and independents would.

It's all birds in the bushes til it happens.

 

[KingOrfeo]

It's all birds in the bushes til it happens.

We're the birds in the bushes. We come here to discuss these things.

 

[adrina]

We're the birds in the bushes. We come here to discuss these things.

As long as it leads to votes when the elections come.

Oh and people don't buy into lesser of two evils horseshit.

 

[KingOrfeo]

As long as it leads to votes when the elections come.

Oh and people don't buy into lesser of two evils horseshit.

What else can you do when there are only two names on a ballot line?

 

[Beco]

Trumps Presidency was best explained by saying, all the resistance from the Left is death by a thousand paper cuts. They won't find anything with regards to Russia, but it won't matter, the Left Won't stop....

4 years of shit, scorched earth tactics, and the Country will suffer.... say goodbye to your 401K, maybe you have a rich uncle or parents that own property you might inherit, but good luck paying your bills.....we're doomed

 

[KingOrfeo]

Trumps Presidency was best explained by saying, all the resistance from the Left is death by a thousand paper cuts. They won't find anything with regards to Russia, but it won't matter, the Left Won't stop....

4 years of shit, scorched earth tactics, and the Country will suffer....

Not from the investigations, it won't, nor from anything the "left" will be doing the next 4 years.