WRJames
Literotica Guru
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- Apr 15, 2007
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Stella_Omega said:Which part of his argument are you interested in?
He has two objections, and they're the same ones everyone else uses; First and foremost is that living organisms are just too darn prefect to have evolved randomly, and secondly, that because we don't know the mechanism by which life itself began, there must be someone special out there who made it.
Well, your refutation of these arguements would be more interesting if they were the ones in the link. But I don't see refererences to either of them in that article. Dr. Schroeder accepts the hypothesis that random combinations of DNA could have produced our current state, however imperfect, and then attempts to calculate the probability.
To quote that article
The question is: Can random mutations produce the evolution of life?
Because evolution is primarily a study of the history of life, statistical analyses of evolution are plagued by having to assume the many conditions that were extant during those long gone eras. Rates of mutations, the contents of the "original DNA," and environmental conditions -- all these affect the rate and direction of the changes in morphology. And these are all unknowns.
From a secular view, one must never ask what the likelihood is that a specific set of mutations will occur to produce a specific animal. This would imply a direction to evolution, and basic to all Darwinian theories of evolution is the assumption that evolution has no direction. The induced changes, and hence the new morphologies, are totally random. The challenges presented by the environment determine which will survive to produce the new generations and which will perish.
Evolutionists will say, vaguely, that it "could" have happened, and obviously, it "must" have happened, because, after all, here we are. But how likely is it? Now, obviously you disagree with his conclusions, and there may be flaws in his technique, but he makes a serious, objective attempt at the calculation of such a probability. To quote again
Humans and all mammals have some 50,000 genes. That implies, as an order of magnitude estimate, some 50,000 to 100,000 proteins active in mammalian bodies. It is estimated that there are some 30 animal phyla on Earth. If the genomes of each animal phylum produced 100,000 proteins, and no proteins were common among any of the phyla (a fact we know to be false, but an assumption that makes our calculations favor the random evolutionary assumption), there would be (30 x 100,000) 3 million proteins in all life. (The actual number is vastly lower.)
Now let's consider the likelihood of these 3 million viable combinations of proteins forming by chance, recalling that the events following the Cambrian explosion of animal life and the later decimation of 90% of life taught us that only certain combinations of proteins are viable.
Proteins are complex coils of several hundred amino acids. Take a typical protein to be a chain of 200 amino acids. The observed range is from less than 100 amino acids per protein to greater than 1000. There are 20 commonly occurring amino acids that join in varying combinations to produce the proteins of life. This means that the number of possible combinations of the amino acids in our model protein of 200 amino acids is 20 to the power of 200 (i.e. 20 multiplied by itself 200 times), or in the more usual 10-based system of numbers, approximately 10 to the power of 260 (i.e. the number one, followed by 260 zeros!). Nature has the option of choosing among the 10 to power of 260 possible proteins, the 3 million proteins of which all viable life is composed. In other words, for each one correct choice, there are 10 to power of 254 wrong choices!
I don't see any references to perfection of design here, or questioning of mechanisms. Rather -- if this is the mechanism, and this is how it is supposed to work, then how could it have produced the observed results?
Well, there is some further analysis of the odds
Can this have happened by random mutations of the genome? Not if our understanding of statistics is correct. It would be as if nature reached into a grab bag containing a billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion non-viable proteins -- and pulled out the one that worked.
And then repeated this trick a million times.
With odds like that, it is amazing that nature and our bodies ever got it or get it right.
But perhaps not every amino acid can join with every other amino acid. If this is the case, then the number of possible combinations will be reduced. To get even hint for what this would do to the hyperspace of failed choices, I looked at combinations of amino acids that actually exist in just six proteins. Among the proteins I used were bovine insulin and bovine ribonuclease. The number of potential amino acid combinations just from this modest sampling of proteins was 10 to the power of 20. Again, nature would have had to select the one viable combination from among 100 billion billion wrong choices.
I think this is a serious attempt to get beyond "it could have happened" vs "it doesn't seem very likely." Of course, he, like me, was probably predisposed to the "unlikely" side of the argument -- it is difficult to have mathematical instincts and treat the randomness argument with anything but contempt. Like I said, I didn't come across a refutation of his calculations, but there may be one out there soewhere. Usually the arguments are that the person is a "crackpot" not a "reputable" member of the scientific community, not as distinguished as the proponents of evolution, etc.
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