Give it up for ObamaCare!

[4est_4est_Gump]

Economists were surprised by the massive "beat" in today's reported job numbers. The unemployment rate dropped .2 to 7.7% and the economy allegedly added 236,000 jobs.

Is that what really happened? No not really.

According to the household survey (on which the unemployment rate is based) the economy added a healthy 170,000 jobs. However, a whopping 446,000 of those jobs were part-time jobs. Simply put, the economy shed 276,000 full-time jobs.

The BLS labeled those 446,000 part-time jobs as "voluntary". I am not so sure.

A Gallup Survey yesterday on Jobs show the percentage of workers working part time but wanting full-time work was 10.1% in February, an increase from 9.6% in January, and the highest rate measured since January 2012.

Gallup notes "Although fewer people are unemployed now than a year ago, they are not migrating to full-time jobs for an employer. In fact, fewer Americans are working full-time for an employer than were doing so a year ago, and more Americans are working part time. Although part-time work is clearly better than no work at all, these are not the types of good jobs that millions of Americans are still searching for."

Obamacare Effect

Obamacare is in play. Recall that under Obamacare, the definition of full-time employment is 30 hours. The BLS cutoff is 34 hours. At 30 hours, companies have to pay medical benefits so they have been slashing the number of hours people work. This reduced the number of hours people worked and provided an incentive for many to take on an extra job.

We can see the effect in actual BLS data.

After declining for years, the percent of those working two or more jobs is again on the rise.

In the past month there was a surge of 679,000 in the number of people working multiple jobs. The seasonally-adjusted increase, as shown above, was 340,000.

One can look at the data two ways.

1. The economy is getting better and more jobs are available
2. People are working more jobs because their hours were cut and they need a second job

Evidence suggests more of the latter than the former.

Expect Downward Revision in Establishment Survey

The reported 236,000 surge in the establishment survey is not real. It will be revised away.

This is why: In the household survey one is either working or not, thus multiple jobs do not distort the reported unemployment rate (although there are many other distortions such as the participation rate and declining labor force).

The establishment survey, however, is distorted by people working multiple jobs. A surge in multiple-job workers would artificially hike the baseline number. I expect revisions later, probably huge downward revisions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


Graphs and charts at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#1HIUcut2coroS2kY.99



Democrats are getting a full load of the economy and the medicine they voted for...

Just a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down!

Remember that the next time you hear that honeyed voice telling you all about the story of the Big Bad Sequester that is going to huff and puff and blow your house down!

 

[RobDownSouth]

 

[mercury14]

Hey dumbass, read the report instead of bailing out to "Romey's Gonna Win in a LANDSLIDE" Gallup.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 8.0 million,
was essentially unchanged in February. These individuals were working part
time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to
find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)

- Number of people working part time for economic reasons in February 2013: 7.98 million
- Number of people working part time for economic reasons in January 2013: 7.73 million
- Number of overall jobs added in the month: +236,000
- The change in the RATE of people working part time for economic reasons: about 0%

Oh and how about this?

Number of people working part time for economic reasons in February 2012: 8.13 million

The facts counter your narrative. You lose.

 

[Wat_Tyler]

And pray tell, Johnny, what does our contestant lose?


Oh, right, it's the internet.

 

[mercury14]

Obamacare Effect

Obamacare is in play. Recall that under Obamacare, the definition of full-time employment is 30 hours. The BLS cutoff is 34 hours. At 30 hours, companies have to pay medical benefits so they have been slashing the number of hours people work. This reduced the number of hours people worked and provided an incentive for many to take on an extra job.

We can see the effect in actual BLS data.

No, you can't. Let's see what the BLS report actually says:

In February, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls
edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

You can always tell with these clowns when the hammer has struck the nail head...

 

[Wat_Tyler]

The Kool-Aid is strong in them.


Lucky for them it's the internet and not a barroom.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Vite Haus to die Kinder...
Vee take it out on sie!

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

The Kool-Aid is strong in them.


Lucky for them it's the internet and not a barroom.

 

[mercury14]

You can always tell with these clowns when the hammer has struck the nail head...

Your narrative has been ruined again. Time for a new one.

The increase in part-time workers you're referring to are almost all working part-time for non-economic reasons. You blogger left that part out for some reason.

 

[Wat_Tyler]

Sometimes, doing simple things like taking a shit just isn't going to happen without someone having a better idea:

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

The New American Dream!
A job at Wendy's AND Mickey Dees...

 

[Wat_Tyler]

More has been revealed . . . .

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Oh good gawd but that is funny!

 

[Wat_Tyler]

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

*chuckle*


Twiddledee and Twiddledum



This is why Republicans lose so many elections. You simply cannot trust them when exposed to a microphone...

 

[Wat_Tyler]

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Meester Obama, My Stash Money!

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

"Why are you here?"

"To get some money."

"What kind of money?"

"Obama money."

"Where's it coming from?

"Obama."

"And where did Obama get it?"

"I don't know... his stash, I don't know. I don't know where he got it from, but he's givin' it t'us to help us. We love him. That's why we voted for him... Obama! Obama!"

How can he ever LOSE?

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

He steals from the rich,
and gives it to his rich cronies...

 

[miles]

You can always tell with these clowns when the hammer has struck the nail head...

Denial
Deflection
Personal attacks
Answering a question with another question.

Such simple, foolish creatures.

 

[zipman]

Hey dumbass, read the report instead of bailing out to "Romey's Gonna Win in a LANDSLIDE" Gallup.




- Number of people working part time for economic reasons in February 2013: 7.98 million
- Number of people working part time for economic reasons in January 2013: 7.73 million
- Number of overall jobs added in the month: +236,000
- The change in the RATE of people working part time for economic reasons: about 0%

Oh and how about this?

Number of people working part time for economic reasons in February 2012: 8.13 million

The facts counter your narrative. You lose.

Typical thread.

1) A_J posts some dumb partisan article
2) Someone else completely refutes it
3) A_J engages in ad hominem
4) The Wat_Tyler alt comes out
5) Miles comes in to console A_J

There's so much change in the world that it's nice when some things stay the same.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Ship of tools...

 

[Wat_Tyler]

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

It's just a shot away...