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For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

This is good news too - helping keep the artillery ammo flow going to Ukraine. Lots of old Soviet calibre stuff as well as 500k x 155mm. Nice

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The Russian 'Vault 8' Telegram channel writes that Ukraine no longer lacks ammunition for some of its legacy Soviet artillery systems: "Quite unexpectedly, after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the defeat of the Syrian Arab Army, the Ukrainians acquired a very impressive number of shells of some types for Soviet systems. Now they can again, as in early 2022, afford to fire at a target such as an assault group in salvoes of 10-15 rockets from the Grad, and at important targets with a full package [of 40 rockets], without constraining themselves. They are also doing well with 155 mm ammunition, judging by the video from the Kursk region. Having 20-30 shells per gun is a luxury, a 'dream'

Assuming the report is accurate, the most likely explanation would be that the munitions have been exported to Ukraine via Turkey, presumably with the knowledge of the Turkish government. Turkey has been a significant supplier of weapons to Ukraine. Some may also have come from Israel.

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"the best way to keep your friends is not to give them away"

Whoa, Russia artillery is getting hammered, and logistics too....122 artillery systems in one day is amazing - along with the high number of casualitues, looks like Russians got their asses handed to them.

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Ukraine Strikes Back - Hard​

A special assessment of Ukraine's development and adaptation of its strategic strike capabilities since 2022, and how this will force changes in the arsenals of nations around the world.​

From Futura Doctrine - Aus Gen Mick Ryan
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8e7b44a-6b5f-4b42-b9cb-9d7308c6c870_1408x768.heic

Throughout the war in Ukraine, one of the topics that I have returned to regularly has been the development of Ukraine’s strategic strike complex. Now, after more than three years, it has a mature strike system which combines Western, former Soviet, indigenous and commercial elements. There is much we all might learn from this.

Long range strike has been a crucial development for the Ukrainian Armed Force since February 2022. They have developed an increasingly capable range of weapons to hit further into Russia and hold a wider range of strategic targets at risk. Ukraine has done this to degrade Russian military capability, execute active measures to reduce and Russian missile strikes on its citizens and infrastructure. But these long-range strikes are not just military affairs; they are also a political necessity.

The timing of this assessment is based on the convergence of three factors. First, Ukraine has recently unveiled multiple new long-range strike weapons which will add to its ability to penetrate Russian air defences and hit targets deep inside Russia. Second, Ukraine is demonstrating a particular skill for hitting Russian oil and munitions facilities, which will be having an impact on Russia’s war making capacity. And finally, having just returned from a recent visit to Ukraine, I gained useful insights on the latest Ukrainian thinking and approaches about long-range strike (although I won’t reveal anything too sensitive).

There are three objectives for this article. I seek to re-examine the objectives of Ukraine’s long-range strike capability as the first task. Second, I will explore how the Ukrainian long-range strike complex operates and its key components. I will conclude with an assessment of the implications for other nations who might wish to develop their own indigenous long-range strike capabilities.

The Objectives of Ukrainian Strategic Strikes
​

Ukraine’s evolving strike supports multiple outcomes for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and for the government of Ukraine’s strategy for the war.

The first function is to support achievement of Ukrainian operational and tactical activities. A 2024 example of this was the downing of Russian air force A-50 Mainstay command and control aircraft. It was providing sensor coverage of Crimea and southern Ukraine, which potentially degraded Ukrainian strikes in those locations. Its downing increased the effectiveness of the Ukrainian strike system in that area. Other examples of this would be attacking key Russian headquarters, transport routes and logistics nodes in occupied Ukraine.

Airfields have frequently been targeted by the Ukrainians. While this campaign against Russian airfields began in 2022, it has broadened over the past three years. One of the most spectacular was the attack on 22 August 2023 which resulted in the destruction of a Tu-22M strategic bomber at Russia’s Soltsy-2 airbase. Subsequent drone attacks in December 2022 and January 2024 also targeted Engels, with the January attack setting fire to an ammunition depot. The most recent attack, on 20 March destroyed 96 air-launched cruise missiles.

These airfield attacks not only destroy Russian aerial strike capability, but the attacks also force a Russian reassessment of their air defence resources and often have them redeploy these assets further from where they are most needed.

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7a4dbae-1692-45e6-a090-c0a19d1fd25d_479x270.heic

Sunrise over Engels. Source: Kyiv Independent
 
Part 2

Perhaps one of the most important targets for the Ukrainians recently has been munitions depots. Significant quantities of battlefield munitions, as well as strike missiles and drones used against Ukrainian energy and civilian targets, have been destroyed in Ukrainian long-range strikes in 2024-2025. These include:
The availability of munitions always plays an important role in military operational tempo, and therefore Ukrainian strikes against munitions depot will have assisted Ukrainian frontline defensive operations since 2024. As the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, General Syrskyi noted in January this year, “over the past few months, the Russian army’s daily artillery shell usage has been reduced by half. Previously, it reached up to 40,000 rounds per day, but it is now significantly lower.” An assessment by Estonian intelligence of the Ukrainian strike on the Toropets munitions depot in September 2024 described how it had destroyed 30,000 tons of munitions, and that it would have a a significant impact on the tempo of Russian battlefield fire support activities. The destruction of Russian munition depots will also have reduced the number of drone and missile attacks against Ukraine. This helps Ukraine to preserve its stocks of air defence missiles - and has given it time to develop improved defences against Shahed drones over the past year.

The Ukrainians have also targeted munitions production facilities. There have been two recorded strikes on the Mashinostroeniya Design Bureau in Kolomna, which develops missiles and anti-tank guided missiles. Ukraine is also reported to have attacked gun powder factories in Bryansk and Tambov and other locations. However, it will be difficult for Ukraine to significantly degrade Russia’s mobilized defence industrial capacity. Probably because of this, it appears that these industrial targets have taken a back seat to the destruction of munitions depots.

A second function of the Ukrainian strike system is to enhance Ukraine’s strategic freedom of maneuver. This freedom of maneuver is not exclusively military. A good example of this is the attacks on the Black Sea Fleet. This has led to the Russian fleet being less effective in the western reaches of the Black Sea. Consequently, it has permitted the Ukrainians to reopen a maritime trade corridor which is essential to their grain export operations – and earning foreign currency. However, the current negotiations around a potential cessation of attacks in the Black Sea will overwhelmingly disadvantage Ukraine given how well it has denied its western parts to Russia.

A third function is to engage in economic warfare and to degrade Russian industrial capacity. As the allies found during the Second World War, destroying an enemy industrial system using strike operations is very difficult. But strikes against Russian oil storage and export facilities in recent years indicates that Ukraine is implementing an economic warfare strategy. Russian oil exports declined in 2024. Ukraine will seek to further decrease this source of revenue in 2025 because of how important it is to the Russian federal budget.nA recent joint study by Radio Liberty and Frontelligence Insight has tracked Ukrainian attacks against Russian oil facilities and made assessment about the effectiveness of these strikes. You can read that study at this link. Also, Reuters has recently published an article on this topic, available here. Russian energy production and export infrastructure is likely to be a key target in 2025 – at least until the Trump-Putin collaborative effort (also known as peace talks) restricts the Ukrainians from attacking these crucial targets.
 
ll74 said:
So now Putin won't sign any deal as long as Zelensky is the President of Ukraine.

Moving the goals posts.....it's almost as if they never had any intention of a ceasefire.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...istration-war-peace-ceasefire-zelensky-russia
Click to expand...

It's such a surprise. I mean, Trump has this close personal relatiopnship with Putin, they're the best of buddies, take my word for it...bwwwaaaahahahahahahaha. Sorry, I can't keep a straight face.

It's almost as if Putin is considering abandoning the deals to halt energy strikes....who'd a thunk it? Ukraine’s General Staff dismissed Russian claims that Ukraine is attacking energy infrastructure in Russia and occupied territories, stating that Russia is the one violating agreements. Over the past day alone, Russian forces damaged energy facilities in the Kherson and Poltava oblasts.

Who'd have ever believed Russia wouldn't honor and agreement? Question is, what is Trump going to do about it? This is exactly what Zelensky has been angling for. A clear demonstration to Trump that he is being played. Will Trump have the cojones to admit this and actually do something about it. Orwill he confirm uyet again that he's just a puppet for Putin?

https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia...om-agreements-on-energy-strikes-50501773.html
 

Ukraine’s Su-27 bridge strikes cut off Russian troops in Belgorod Oblast​


Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jets, equipped with American and French precision-guided bombs, have been targeting and destroying bridges in Russia's western Belgorod Oblast in an effort to isolate Russian troops, Forbes wrote on March 27. The destruction of bridges over the Seversky Donets River in Grafovka and Nadezhdovka is seen as a crucial factor in the Ukrainian incursion into Belgorod Oblast along the international border. It's not yet clear how big the Ukrainians' ambitions are, as the current incursion may be deliberately short and shallow. But if they do aim to occupy a significant portion of the oblast, they'll need the rivers to work for them. Despite lacking modern self-defense measures, the Su-27s fly alongside European F-16 fighters and French Mirage 2000s, which have sophisticated jammers and can extend their electronic protection to nearby aircraft. “We conduct flights to cover our other combat brothers, the [Mikoyan] MiG-29s [and] Su-27s,” a Ukrainian F-16 pilot said in a recent official interview.

This coordinated attack planning has been successful so far, as Ukraine has not lost any aircraft during the bridge bombing.

Meanwhile, Ukraine are striking deep into Belgorod, forcing Russian forces into a chaotic retreat. Russian forces are scrambling to respond, as Ukraine’s precision strike into Belgorod reveals a sophisticated military strategy designed to outmaneuver and psychologically disrupt enemy defenses. In a bold maneuver, Ukrainian forces launched an incursion into Russia’s Belgorod region, aiming to divert Russian attention and relieve the pressure from the ongoing withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Kursk by creating problems for the Russians elsewhere. Russia had concentrated forces on Kursk, attempting to pin down Ukrainian troops and inflict heavy losses during their withdrawal. A well-executed retreat in good order was critical for Ukraine, not only to preserve manpower and equipment but to prevent Russia from gaining dangerous momentum and achieving a breakthrough into Sumy Oblast. The Belgorod incursion served as a pressure valve, forcing the Russian command to react and redeploy forces away from Kursk. The operation targeted the Belgorod region, southeast of the Kursk incursion, exploiting Russia’s defensive vulnerabilities and stirring panic.

By striking at Russian border settlements, the choice of Belgorod was important, close enough to the Kursk front to force a reaction but distant enough to prevent an immediate Russian counteroffensive. By the time of the Belgorod operation, Ukraine had already pulled back most of its forces from Kursk, including its elite assault units, special forces, artillery, and Western armored vehicles. These assets had been held in reserve due to Russian FPV fiber optics drone activity in the Kursk sector and were available for a high-intensity diversionary strike. This allowed Ukraine to deploy refreshed, well-equipped troops in an unexpected sector, overwhelming Russian defenses. Ukraine’s assault faced a mix of obstacles, including minefields, dragon’s teeth fortifications, and entrenched artillery. However, meticulous preparation neutralized these challenges. Ukrainian engineering units, supported by UR-77 “Meteorite” demining systems, cleared a passage in the minefield for engineering demining machines, armored vehicles, and tanks, ensuring a swift advance.

The existing anti-tank dragon’s teeth obstacles were destroyed before Russian forces could react or even notice this, allowing Ukrainian armor to advance unimpeded. Geolocated footage from the region shows how Ukrainian drones and counterbattery fire systematically dismantled Russian artillery positions and deployment sites, weakening defensive lines. Another video from a Ukrainian SHARK surveillance drone shows how it corrected a HIMARS strike, which delivered an accurate cluster missile hit on a Russian position. With these barriers eliminated, Ukrainian special forces operators and small armored assault groups surged into Belgorod, seizing multiple settlements and forcing Russian units into disorderly retreats, while the Ukrainians were being constantly supported by artillery and drone reconnaissance.

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The Belgorod region’s forests, rivers, and lakes played a crucial role in Ukrainian strategy. After capturing the villages of Demidovka and Popovka, Ukrainian troops capitalized on natural barriers, using forests for cover, rivers as defensive obstacles, and high-ground positions to create an all-round defense. The destruction of key bridges in Grafovka and Nadezhevka disrupted Russian movements and logistics, making it difficult for Russian reinforcements to respond quickly to counter the Ukrainian advance. This allowed the Ukrainians to entrench themselves before Russian reinforcements could mount a counteroffensive. Despite being a limited operation, the Belgorod incursion caused alarm among Russian analysts and military journalists. Reports confirmed Ukrainian control over Demidovka and Popovka, with Russian forces scrambling to retake lost ground. The psychological impact on the Russian command was immediate.

Prominent Russian military analysts expressed deep concern over the incursions, while reports indicated that the Russian high command had begun shifting forces from Kursk to Belgorod, precisely the outcome Ukraine sought. Overall, while not a large-scale offensive, Ukraine’s Belgorod incursion quickly achieved its primary objective, diverting Russian attention and resources away from Kursk. By forcing the enemy to react, Ukraine ensured that its withdrawal in Kursk continued in an organized manner, while also demonstrating its ability to strike deep into Russian territory repeatedly. Whether this operation expands further remains uncertain, but its immediate effect is undeniable: Russia is now on the defensive, scrambling to create a task force in another direction to contain yet another Ukrainian breakthrough.

We can see similar things happening all long the frontline with Russia now. Russia is not making any real gains, only small localized advances at the cost of enormous casualties. Ukraine on the other hand is carrying out well-planned attacks using specialized assault units heavily supported by drones and logistical strikes to cut off Russian frontline units from support, eradicate them and recapture ground on a consistem basis. Combine that with Russia's slow but inevitable economic collapse and this perhaps near a turning point. The wildcard is off course Trump, should he actually decide to actively support Putin rather more overtyly than he has been doing so far.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrain...bs-tear-through-russian-bridges-50501706.html

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/03...-forcing-russian-forces-into-chaotic-retreat/

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A Film about the Soldiers of the 3rd Special Operations Regiment of Ukrainian SOF​

The 3rd Special Operations Regiment is a formation of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It was subordinate to the 4th Special Intelligence Service of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. The unit is quartered in Kropyvnytskyi. The regiment was formed on the basis of the 10th Separate Brigade of Special Purpose of the Main Reconnaissance Directorate (GRU) of the Soviet Armed Forces. The regiment participated in the war in Donbas and has been in constant combat since 2014.

Since 2018, the regiment has been named after Prince Svyatoslav the Brave, the ruler of Kievan Rus' of the 10th century. As of November 16, 2024, the regiment has lost 73 servicemen in battle.

Ukraine Army TV presents the first episode of the documentary film “ETHOS,” dedicated to one of the most powerful units of the Special Operations Forces - the 3rd Separate Special Purpose Regiment named after Prince Sviatoslav the Brave. Ethos is a set of dominant values, a certain code that the fighters strictly adhere to. The ethos of the Special Operations Forces consists of concepts such as freedom, courage, dignity, self-control, brotherhood, and loyalty to the oath. Director Angel Angelov’s film explores the internal culture within the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces. The fighters reflect on the art of war, the source of their motivation, raise questions of humanity and philosophy, and talk about their combat path and struggle against the enemy.


On 6 December 2019, during the celebrations on the occasion of the Day of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the regimental battle song: "Song of the Brave" was presented to soldiers and guests at the regimental square. Its author is Svyatoslav Boyko, the leader of the band "Shirokyi Lan." He created the text of the work together with the servicemen of the regiment. "Song of the Brave" was played to the accompaniment of the regimental orchestra.


Song of the Brave

The evening is on fire,
Brothers have joined the ranks,
A hand laid on my shoulder,
It's time for us to go, it's time for us to go!

Chorus:
Step by step, a shadow in the shadows,
Wolf-soldiers go hunting.
Step by step, a shadow in the shadows,
Wolf-soldiers go hunting.

Swords consecrated in battle
Taken from the ground, held in our hands.
Forged by our ancestors in battle,
Steel hard, enemy fear ...
Chorus.

The power of the spirits is amongst us,
In the gray steppes, our seas,
In the circle of valor, victory
Prince's two-swords on our shields ...
Chorus.

The fire of sacrifice goes up,
Black shields are in ranks,
Hands on swords
Time for us to go, time for us to go! ..
Chorus.

Fallen in battle in the midst of the wild fields
Leading from the front, calling to action.
Let's remember the trinity today
And fight again, and fight again!
Chorus.

Battleships that go before the wind,
Paving the way for our sons,
Years later, our grandfather's flags
flutter in our regiments

The link below is fairly old (2023) but apparantly “The SAS has been training Ukrainian Special Forces since the late 1990s, and they are very, very good." The SAS are the best special forces in the world, literally the sensei of the art of special forces operations, and if the Ukrainians have been learning from them for the last 20 years, then they are very very good indeed. Add in the British SBS, who have also been training Ukrainian Special Forces, and, well, after more than 3 years of war they're up their amongst the best now....

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20044
 
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Ukrainians expect Russia to launch a fresh offensive to strengthen its negotiating position​

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces are preparing to launch a fresh military offensive in the coming weeks to maximize the pressure on Ukraine and strengthen the Kremlin’s negotiating position in ceasefire talks, Ukrainian government and military analysts said. The move could give Russian President Vladimir Putin every reason to delay discussions about pausing the fighting in favor of seeking more land, the Ukrainian officials said, renewing their country’s repeated arguments that Russia has no intention of engaging in meaningful dialogue to end the war. With the spring fighting season drawing near, the Kremlin is eyeing a multi-pronged push across the 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) front line, according to the analysts and military commanders. Citing intelligence reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is getting ready for new offensives in the northeast Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizizhia regions. “They’re dragging out the talks and trying to get the U.S. stuck in endless and pointless discussions about fake ‘conditions’ just to buy time and then try to grab more land,” Zelenskyy said Thursday in a visit to Paris. “Putin wants to negotiate over territory from a stronger position.”

Russia has effectively rejected a U.S. proposal for an immediate and full 30-day halt in the fighting, and the feasibility of a partial ceasefire on the Black Sea was thrown into doubt after Kremlin negotiators imposed far-reaching conditions. Battlefield success is clearly in Putin’s mind. “On the entire front line, the strategic initiative is completely in the hands of the Russian armed forces,” Putin said Thursday at a forum in the Arctic port of Murmansk. “Our troops, our guys are moving forward and liberating one territory after another, one settlement after another, every day.” Ukrainian military commanders said Russia recently stepped up attacks to improve its tactical positions ahead of the expected broader offensive.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...sefire-talks-49ee814cc4a8416c444ab7deae42488c
 

Ukraine has businesses (each) producing 1 million first-person view drones annually, Zelenskyy's strategic issues advisor says​

Oleksandr Kamyshin, a strategic issues advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has stated that Ukraine's defence industry is capable of producing several million first-person view (FPV) drones annually. Additionally, over 150 businesses of various sizes are involved in FPV drone production across Ukraine. In March, Vyriy Drone, one of Ukraine's largest FPV drone manufacturers, unveiled its first batch of UAVs built entirely from domestically produced components. In the first two months of 2025, Ukraine allocated UAH 336.6 billion (approximately US$8.09 billion) from the general state budget to security and defence.

In addition, EU countries are financing Ukrainian drone production, and Ukraine is also contracting out to other EU drone suppliers. They confirmed a few weeks ago they were targeting 4.5 million drpnes for 2025, but it looks like that number is clmbing rather exponentially if they're now talking several million.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/03/29/7505128/
 
This has been going on for weeks now along some areas of the front. Ukrainian drone units are targeting the Russians for up tp 30-40kms into the rear, hitting everything that moves. Artillery is targeted, vehicles are hit as soon as spotted, and when the troops dismounted, they are hunted down one by one. The end result is only a trickle are getting thru to the frontline, logistical support is non-existent, and specialist Ukrainian assult units supported by their own drone unitss are progressively identifying, pinning down and eradicating the orc infestations and clearing zones one by one.

While the Russians recaptured Kursk, this was due to their sucking reinforcements and reserves away from other areas and taking enormous casualties while the Ukraines gave ground rather than standing at all costs. The much talked about Russian 2025 offensive will likely be more of the same - the Russians have been doing this for the last 2 years with very litttle gained - they do not have the numbers for a massive offensive and as the Ukrainian drone line tactics kick in, and Ukrainian artillery and air superiority grows, the Russian tactics will become increasingly less and less effective, with more and more casualties for less and less gained. 85% of Russian casualties are now inflicted by Ukrainian drones, and Ukraininian drone production is on target to triple or quadruple over this year, while Russian industrial capacity is dropping and Trump's ceasefire looks less and less likely to eventuate.

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How the Ukrainian Press sees the USA these days.....likely to be also how much of Europe now sees the USA

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