COVID impacts

[yukonnights]

Hmmm... interesting thread.

Stats in the U.S. - so far 30 people have died from the virus.

In other news... in the U.S. 190+ people will die from a heart attack TODAY!

Some kind of pandemic is happening, but not the one that is being given all the hype. Just thought y'all should know.

While the number of deaths is low at this point, the number of potential deaths is an unknown. Unlike heart disease, a normal aging ailment with fairly predictable occurrence, this is a 'novel virus' that is not well understood. There is no known cure, and the USA has become an embarrassment in regard to even testing for those who show up at a hospital with symptoms.

The panic is caused by the unknowns — and compounded by the total cluster fuck-up by the US government.

A large part of the overall panic is due to the mishandling of the situation by the Federal government which triggered an economic panic. I don't blame the public as much as I do those at the very top who are incompetent, untruthful and unreliable.

 

[Bramblethorn]

Hmmm... interesting thread.

Stats in the U.S. - so far 30 people have died from the virus.

In other news... in the U.S. 190+ people will die from a heart attack TODAY!

"Watch out! That guy is pointing a gun at you!"

"No worries, I've seen the records and that gun hasn't killed anybody yet, so I'm safe!"

...sometimes, we have to apply our knowledge about how things work and evaluate the potential for things to get worse than they currently are. This is one of those times.

Do you know why it's called COVID-19? It's been around since 2019. Where SARS has been around a lot longer, by the way, it is also a coronavirus, and killed a lot more people. I'm not shrugging it off, it's just that there are more people panicking over this then SARS which is deadlier.

This is utterly wrong. SARS killed about 774 people over 2-3 years. COVID-19 (aka SARS-CoV-2, because it's a close relative) has so far killed around 4700 in four months, and is still spreading.

There is way too much misinformation out there - please PLEASE check your facts before adding to it.

 

[yukonnights]

Some Good News for a change;

Trump declares virus pandemic a national emergency —> https://apnews.com/83b0c8e168548fd453b0c177dd1f203a

Stocks surge on new virus measures; Dow up 1,985 points —> https://apnews.com/28ddddf46b0a8a7bdcfdeacf51a21961

 

[ChloeTzang]

This was basically the framing device for the Decameron. Though some of the responses have had me thinking more Masque of the Red Death.

Ohhhh you reminded me. Have to find my copy, and reread.

 

[JaxRhapsody]

Do you think we will see a dramatic upsurge in story submissions as millions of bored self-quarantined people decide to try their hand at writing?

I'm just hoping for more death.

 

[OneAuthor]

Some Good News for a change;

Trump declares virus pandemic a national emergency —> https://apnews.com/83b0c8e168548fd453b0c177dd1f203a

Stocks surge on new virus measures; Dow up 1,985 points —> https://apnews.com/28ddddf46b0a8a7bdcfdeacf51a21961

That is good to see.

 

[Bramblethorn]

Of course! I must dig out my copy.

Speaking of which, does anybody have a good version of the Decameron they can recommend? I tried it once and just couldn't get into it, it seemed very dull, but I'm wondering if perhaps I was just unlucky to get an uninspired translation.

 

[jsez]

Well... I'm fairly new to literotica - especially as a contributor. And, I think by coincidence it may have been just about the time the first cases were being revealed in the U.S. For me - the two were not connected.

However, I do find myself in the unusual predicament of sitting in front of my computer on a Friday evening, with all my weekend plans having been cancelled: tickets to the theater in hand are now useless; birthday party indefinitely postponed; friends now want to stay in rather than go out...and I'm seriously debating if I want to even go out either.

So... I very well may submit more stuff than I otherwise might. And that's my long way of answering the original question: yeah, probably. lol

 

[KeithD]

I spent the early afternoon at a winery in the mountains . . . sitting outside on a patio (twenty feet from anyone else, other than who I was there with) . . . drinking wine. It was nice.

 

[oggbashan]

Speaking of which, does anybody have a good version of the Decameron they can recommend? I tried it once and just couldn't get into it, it seemed very dull, but I'm wondering if perhaps I was just unlucky to get an uninspired translation.

Translated by Wayne A Redhorn published by W W Norton and Co in 2013 is thought to be the best, building on all others.

 

[Zeb_Carter]

"Watch out! That guy is pointing a gun at you!"

"No worries, I've seen the records and that gun hasn't killed anybody yet, so I'm safe!"

...sometimes, we have to apply our knowledge about how things work and evaluate the potential for things to get worse than they currently are. This is one of those times.



This is utterly wrong. SARS killed about 774 people over 2-3 years. COVID-19 (aka SARS-CoV-2, because it's a close relative) has so far killed around 4700 in four months, and is still spreading.

There is way too much misinformation out there - please PLEASE check your facts before adding to it.

My information come from the CDC. So how long will it tack the COVID-19 virus to mutate into nothingness or int COVID-20?

And I see all these people wearing surgical masks which are made to stop the spread of germs/bacteria not viruses.

 

[Bramblethorn]

My information come from the CDC.

CDC gives the same numbers for SARS: 774 deaths worldwide.
I can't find any worldwide counts for COVID-19 on CDC, but WHO's March 6 sitrep was reporting over 3000 deaths in China, plus 335 outside; that was a week ago so the number will presumably have grown.

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

So how long will it tack the COVID-19 virus to mutate into nothingness or int COVID-20?

Viruses generally don't just "mutate into nothingness", at least not quickly enough to be useful. Every person with COVID-19 is carrying their own copies of the bug. Even if John Smith's COVID infection mutates into something less contagious, that mutation doesn't change what everybody else is carrying. That one weakened strain might die out but it does nothing about all the other carriers.

The SARS epidemic didn't end because of mutation. It ended because effective infection control cut into the spread of the virus. If the average patient passes on the infection to two more people, the disease will grow exponentially; if the average patient only passes it on to 0.5 new people, it will die out.

In the very long run, diseases that live in a single species tend to evolve to become less harmful to that species, because a virus that keeps its host alive has more chance to spread than one that kills the host. That's why a lot of the most lethal strains are the ones that have recently jumped species - animal 'flu strains, HIV, etc. etc. But that process usually takes centuries.

(I remember reading a Tom Clancy book where it happened in a few weeks, but Tom was taking some significant liberties there.)

And I see all these people wearing surgical masks which are made to stop the spread of germs/bacteria not viruses.

Yeah, last I saw, the advice was only to wear masks if you're infected yourself or you're a health worker who knows what you're doing. For infected people, wearing a mask may help reduce the chance of passing it on.

 

[Bramblethorn]

Translated by Wayne A Redhorn published by W W Norton and Co in 2013 is thought to be the best, building on all others.

Thanks, I'll keep an eye out for it.

 

[KeithD]

Yeah, last I saw, the advice was only to wear masks if you're infected yourself or you're a health worker who knows what you're doing. For infected people, wearing a mask may help reduce the chance of passing it on.

But that people are wearing them inappropriately is due to a total fail in federal government response to this issue.

Even tonight's nice "tests will be free" only works if there actually are tests being given. Wonder when that will happen to the extent of defining who has it and where they are. And payroll tax relief will only have effect on those who still have jobs then.

Total Trump regime fail on preparing for this. They had six weeks from when it struck in China. They did nothing--not even try to set up again what they'd dismantled. They did less than nothing. They let a clown stand up there and lie again and again about simply everything.

 

[yukonnights]

Just logged back on to share this, it sounds like good news.

She's a legend in the fight against HIV. Now Dr Deborah Birx is taking on Covid-19 Article in the Guardian —> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-dr-deborah-birx-hiv-aids

Excerpt; "... At the medical center where Birx worked as a US army physician, healthy young men were dying in droves from an illness no one could name.

“When you’re trained in medicine and it’s the 80s and you’ve got all this hi-tech stuff and this ability to diagnose everything,” Birx said in a Sep 2019 interview with the George W Bush Presidential Center, “when you not only couldn’t make a diagnosis, you didn’t know what the problem was, and you didn’t know how to treat it, it was devastating."

But instead of being cowed, Birx twisted her heartbreak and confusion into research and treatment. In doing so, she embarked on a career dedicated to stopping HIV and Aids.

Having gone head-to-head with global health leaders while overseeing a program responsible for saving millions of lives, Birx has become something of a legend in the global health community.

Now her task is to stop the spread of Covid-19...

 

[Desiremakesmeweak]

Yeah, must be lots more 'writers' and you can see that they are going the old school route and drafting their best-sellers onto paper first...

 

[TarnishedPenny]

Just stumbled across this and, in light of the previous discussion, thought it would be worth posting. Two caveats. First, the data is two weeks old, but I'm not sure that would have changed. Second, some people distrust Al Jazeera; I won't get into that, but can see no reason for them to have skewed the figures. My feeling is that this is probably pretty accurate.

covid-19 fatalities by age group.jpg

Edit - for some reason, I cannot get the wretched thing to display. Sorry 'bout that.

 

[oggbashan]

Just stumbled across this and, in light of the previous discussion, thought it would be worth posting. Two caveats. First, the data is two weeks old, but I'm not sure that would have changed. Second, some people distrust Al Jazeera; I won't get into that, but can see no reason for them to have skewed the figures. My feeling is that this is probably pretty accurate.

covid-19 fatalities by age group.jpg

It is skewed by fatalities in China where a significant number of older men are smokers - of Chinese made cigarettes which are often stronger and less filtered than elsewhere.

The number of fatalities in the developed world for older age groups would be still significant but possibly not as high.

 

[Zeb_Carter]

CDC gives the same numbers for SARS: 774 deaths worldwide.
I can't find any worldwide counts for COVID-19 on CDC, but WHO's March 6 sitrep was reporting over 3000 deaths in China, plus 335 outside; that was a week ago so the number will presumably have grown.

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2



Viruses generally don't just "mutate into nothingness", at least not quickly enough to be useful. Every person with COVID-19 is carrying their own copies of the bug. Even if John Smith's COVID infection mutates into something less contagious, that mutation doesn't change what everybody else is carrying. That one weakened strain might die out but it does nothing about all the other carriers.

The SARS epidemic didn't end because of mutation. It ended because effective infection control cut into the spread of the virus. If the average patient passes on the infection to two more people, the disease will grow exponentially; if the average patient only passes it on to 0.5 new people, it will die out.

In the very long run, diseases that live in a single species tend to evolve to become less harmful to that species, because a virus that keeps its host alive has more chance to spread than one that kills the host. That's why a lot of the most lethal strains are the ones that have recently jumped species - animal 'flu strains, HIV, etc. etc. But that process usually takes centuries.

(I remember reading a Tom Clancy book where it happened in a few weeks, but Tom was taking some significant liberties there.)



Yeah, last I saw, the advice was only to wear masks if you're infected yourself or you're a health worker who knows what you're doing. For infected people, wearing a mask may help reduce the chance of passing it on.

As of yesterday 40 people have died in the U.S. Map of how many have the disease and how many have died.

And yesterday 234 people died from the flu.

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106362398-1580727197721coronavirusvsallflustrains.png?v=1580727218&w=740&h=416

 

[oggbashan]

...

Yeah, last I saw, the advice was only to wear masks if you're infected yourself or you're a health worker who knows what you're doing. For infected people, wearing a mask may help reduce the chance of passing it on.

Most masks are actually useless against Covid-19 because they stop particles greater than 0.3 micros and Covid-19 is 0.1.

They give a false sense of security.

A mask that would stop Covid-19 should be worn with a hazmat suit and is very uncomfortable for any length of time. A female Italian health worker has shown the bruises she got from wearing a hazmat mask for 12 hours.

 

[oggbashan]

As of yesterday 40 people have died in the U.S. Map of how many have the disease and how many have died.

And yesterday 234 people died from the flu.

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106362398-1580727197721coronavirusvsallflustrains.png?v=1580727218&w=740&h=416

But Covid-19 has barely got going in the US. Compare the figures in June.

 

[BelleCanzuto]

As of yesterday 40 people have died in the U.S. Map of how many have the disease and how many have died.

And yesterday 234 people died from the flu.

You keep posting that like it's meaningful.

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu."

Do the math: (22,000/36,000,000) * 100= 0.06% for the flu

Vs: (41/1641) * 100= 2.49% for Covid-19 in the US

 

[ChloeTzang]

I guess some of the posters are notorious deniers. Thoughts and prayers.

Yep. Look at Spain now..... act fast, keep it controlled, no biggie. Lose control and you end up having to do what Spain and Italy are doing. Who knows what Iran is like? Mass graves from the sound of it. Guess we’ll know in a month or three.

With something like this it’s far better to over react early, than leave it late. What were seeing in the USA is where Italy was a few weeks ago. The graphs don’t lie....

 

[BelleCanzuto]

With something like this it’s far better to over react early, than leave it late. What were seeing in the USA is where Italy was a few weeks ago. The graphs don’t lie....

^^^^This x1000

 

[Bramblethorn]

As of yesterday 40 people have died in the U.S. Map of how many have the disease and how many have died.

I count 48 on that map: 37 WA, 6 CA, 1 CO, 2 FL, 1 GA, 1 NY. But keep in mind that USA isn't doing a lot of testing; it's quite possible there are other deaths that haven't yet been identified as coronavirus.

And yesterday 234 people died from the flu.

Got a source on that? The number doesn't sound unreasonable, but I would be impressed if CDC is able to collate and publish that kind of data within 24 hours.

But you're still missing the point: the concern isn't about how many people coronavirus is killing *now*, but how many it might kill if it continues spreading as it has done.

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106362398-1580727197721coronavirusvsallflustrains.png?v=1580727218&w=740&h=416

Your graph is six weeks out of date. The death count for coronavirus by now is FIFTEEN TIMES the number shown in that graph. That growth is the reason people are concerned. If you're determined not to understand that concept, if you're just going to keep on bleating "it hasn't killed a lot of people yet", there's no point in continuing this.