closed Thread

[Lazaran]

The study in the article I cited uses HAMAS' numbers to statistically show those numbers are inaccurate, extremely so. Unfortunately, nothing in the three articles you linked debunked the study in the article I linked. The study states that the numbers reported by Hamas cannot be accurate in light of other numbers reported by HAMAS military. Additionally, they are suspect because of the way the death toll has mounted, IE; "with almost metronomical linearity". The study uses HAMAS' own numbers to show why they can't be accurate. The articles you cited use anecdotal evidence such as "mounds of bodies" and admit the journalists on site cannot verify the numbers reported. Additionally, the article says that no outside agency can verify any numbers, for either side because Israel has the borders closed.

I wouldn't go into a long discussion of propaganda, but this situation is a prime time for the use of such tactics. Because of that ANY such reports like casualties, from either side are suspect until verified.

Additionally, anyone that has been in a war zone knows that during combat it is impossible to do things like get an accurate count of casualties, especially civilian casualties. So any claim the numbers are accurate is also suspect.



Comshaw

Another clue might have been the infamous hospital explosion - which turned out to be a failed Hamas rocket launch - that the "Hamas ministry of health" initially reported as having killed 500, but later, after the "Israeli air strike" narrative was debunked, "revised” that number down to almost nothing.

The Hamas animals and their sympathetic / compromised international enablers cannot be trusted.

Also:

Any entity that would plan and conduct the October 7t h rape, torture, murder, and kidnapping operation doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt on…anything.

 

[ll74]

If it's information germane to the Israel/Hamas War why shouldn't it be posted here? Your thread title says so.

It has been. Multiple times by multiple people. There has been exactly one new article posted on the topic.

And those who posted don't have any interest in accuracy of numbers, as has been argued.

Everything else is just arguing the topic. I actually think it deserves a separate thread.

 

[Rightguide]

It has been. Multiple times by multiple people. There has been exactly one new article posted on the topic.

And those who posted don't have any interest in accuracy of numbers, as has been argued.

Everything else is just arguing the topic. I actually think it deserves a separate thread.

So are the numbers in flux?

 

[Comshaw]

It’s not as simple as that, and I will refer you to the comments I make in reference to Comshaw below:


Sorry Comshaw, I am in statistics, what the professor has shown is not proof that Hamas’ figures are made up.

Creating trend lines based on previous conflicts is actually at the crux of his hypothesis if you read through it fully, and this is a nonsense: particularly when we have evidence in the form of documentation from the IDF which shows explicitly that they have used more ordnance on Gaza in this war than they have used in all previous wars, combined.

The amount of ordnance dropped on Gaza is eye dropping and can only ave led to high rates of casualties

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/31/israeli-bombardment-destroyed-over-70-of-gaza-homes-media-office#:~:text=Analysing satellite imagery, the report,that they cannot be repaired.

This is just 31 December 2023, and since then Israel increased its aerial and ground assault on Gaza up until today.

France24, BBC, MSNBC and other news outlets have consistently confirmed the use of 2000lb “dumb” bombs which have 300m blast radius.

Given the size of Gaza, and the population density, the evidence points to the death toll being north of 100,000 in reality, particularly when you also consider we have hundreds - likely thousands - trapped under the rubble of high rise buildings that have been raised to the ground.

So;

• Israel has used dumb bombs indiscriminately with high explosive charge and high blast radius
• Gaza is one of the most densely populated areas on the planet

These two facts and the satellite imagery available online shows the destruction, to just the video and drone footage we have:

This is just one example, and there are dozens more. This is already two months old.

So actually, we could confidently say “Hamas’ figures are wrong” - and the reason for that is that the level of destruction, the type of weaponry used, and the high density population all point towards higher rates of deaths, not less.

So the professor’s postulations are, in short, crap. And he knows it - this is propaganda.

Incidentally, you mention journalists - currently over 100 have been killed in Gaza, more than in all other conflicts combined in the last 20 years.

The lack of journalists now on the ground to document what is happening is part of the problem, we simply haven’t seen enough of what the IDF and Hamas are doing.

However we know from international charities and the UN bodies working in Gaza that Israel and the IDF are the major blocking points for water, medical aid, food, electricity, and much more.

So a population of 2.3 million is mostly blocked from any access to basic tenants of life. How are they still living?

The answer is - they’re not. But we don’t have enough access allowed by Israel into Gaza to actually analyse and document what’s going on.

So back to the roundabout point - what do we do with Hamas’ figures and why are they still important?

Hamas’ numbers are derived from communications between all of the hospitals, which is difficult because Israel has consistently disrupted and/or bombed communication infrastructure since 21 October 2023.

However, these figures are based on actual, definitive deaths registered to the systems between the hospitals. What is frightening is that the registered deaths are only those for which definitive identification has been made, at this stage.

The main reason for the figures being so regular is the reporting system and the inability of the aid agencies and medical structure in Gaza from functioning properly. There’s almost no ambulances, there are no hospitals fully functioning, most are in fact empty shells and desolate.

Many deaths may even be only reported some days after the death has occurred, based on when a body is recovered.

So some of this backs up in the reporting system too.

What I find most heinous about that Professor’s - in my opinion - thoroughly unacademic approach is that he hasn’t:

• Considered the weaponry being used
• The density of the popularion
• The blocking of water/aid/medical supplies/etc by Israel
• The destruction of communication systems
• The widespread destruction and damage to infrastructure making search and rescue almost impossible

So in short, the piece written has substantial flaws, doesn’t take in all the available knowledge we have, and is for that reason, to be dismissed.

The reason for the piece is to the usual thing of “Hamas bad, untrustworthy” when a reasonable academic would look at the situation in the round, look at the different factors influencing the whole situation, and would realise pretty quickly that though he may be right that the Hamas figures aren’t accurate, it’s not as he suggests coming from Hamas’ health ministry trying to inflate the figures, but actually a far more nuanced and complicated situation that leads us to only one actual conclusion: the death toll is in fact far, far higher, but it is not possible at this time to ascertain what it is given the restrictions Israel has placed on Gaza.

You use anecdotal arguments and your opinion (which I will not be taking a face value because you haven't shown me you are credible enough to take it that way) to discredit the study, yet refuse to show ANYTHING of factual substance to show it is wrong.

As far as listing everything the professor doesn't use, he doesn't need to. He has USED HAMAS NUMBERS to show that the reported numbers can't be right. Logically, there is little room for argument when you use a person's (or organization's) own figures to show they aren't correct.

I can see this is useless because you will keep dragging out things that have no bearing on what the study found and how.

"The reason for the piece is to the usual thing of “Hamas bad, untrustworthy”..."

They are at war. HAMAS military is in control of what is or isn't being disseminated. It doesn't matter what the UN thought of HAMAS Health Authority before the war. I can guarantee the information coming out now isn't accurate. Propaganda, One of the first prisoners of war is information.

I understand it is a heinous war. I understand there is and will be civilian casualties. What I don't agree with is the casualty numbers reported by HAMAS, the same organization that perpetrated the attack that caused this whole thing. As I said I will not go into the use of propaganda but it appears you are a victim of the HAMAS style of propaganda, or so blindly biased you refuse to look at things with an unjuandiced eye. Either way I'm done. There is an old saying, "There comes a time when you need to walk away and just let people be wrong."

TA
Comshaw

 

[ll74]

So are the numbers in flux?

The numbers are large (based on multiple different sources, all posted earlier in the thread) and are consistently rising. (As one would expect in a war)

 

[RobDownSouth]

How do you know that's not a hostage?

Because I'm smarter than you.

 

[Deleted member 6736302]

You use anecdotal arguments and your opinion (which I will not be taking a face value because you haven't shown me you are credible enough to take it that way) to discredit the study, yet refuse to show ANYTHING of factual substance to show it is wrong.

As far as listing everything the professor doesn't use, he doesn't need to. He has USED HAMAS NUMBERS to show that the reported numbers can't be right. Logically, there is little room for argument when you use a person's (or organization's) own figures to show they aren't correct.

I can see this is useless because you will keep dragging out things that have no bearing on what the study found and how.


They are at war. HAMAS military is in control of what is or isn't being disseminated. It doesn't matter what the UN thought of HAMAS Health Authority before the war. I can guarantee the information coming out now isn't accurate. Propaganda, One of the first prisoners of war is information.

I understand it is a heinous war. I understand there is and will be civilian casualties. What I don't agree with is the casualty numbers reported by HAMAS, the same organization that perpetrated the attack that caused this whole thing. As I said I will not go into the use of propaganda but it appears you are a victim of the HAMAS style of propaganda, or so blindly biased you refuse to look at things with an unjuandiced eye. Either way I'm done. There is an old saying, "There comes a time when you need to walk away and just let people be wrong."

TA
Comshaw

This is literally crap. You didn’t actually read what I wrote. You’re a bad faith actor. I’m out, you’re going on ignore.

 

[vietato]

“Chuck Schumer is fighting to prevent Hamas from being destroyed. It’s disgraceful. He will never live this down.” An awful lot of the foreign policy and intelligence community seems anxious to keep Hamas alive.

 

[vietato]

BOB GRABOYES: Hamas and the Shill Game: Israel is guilty until proven innocent — and guilty after being proven innocent.

 

[Rightguide]

Because I'm smarter than you.

But that is a lie. The truth is, you don't know.

 

[ll74]

“Chuck Schumer is fighting to prevent Hamas from being destroyed. It’s disgraceful. He will never live this down.” An awful lot of the foreign policy and intelligence community seems anxious to keep Hamas alive.

Schumer is advocating for new leadership. I agree with him.

 

[RobDownSouth]

But that is a lie. The truth is, you don't know.

No, I'm quite sure I'm smarter than you.

 

[LLCox]

Another one down several to go.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-issa-israel-gaza-jake-sullivan-b2514878.html

 

[Deleted member 6736302]

7 October - Aljazeera Investigation

This film is worth watching, for all sides of the debate.

Be warned, it is a hard watch and you will not feel the same at the end.

Hamas’ assault is barbaric. Israel’s responses, in the many iterations of their response, including outright lying about atrocities committed, are also barbaric.

 

[ll74]

A report on the famine in Gaza by an independent group:

GAZA STRIP: Famine is imminent as 1.1 million people, half of Gaza, experience catastrophic food insecurity​

 

[ll74]

Lots of updates:

• Netanyahu rejects Biden's plea not to invade Rafah
• Six week ceasefire deal stalled in Qatar - Hamas wants longer plan for peace, Israel will only commit to pause
• SoS Blinken heads to Middle East (again)
• Two Hamas police chiefs killed along with their family
• Attack an Gaza City's Al Sharif hospital nets 90 Hamas deaths.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hits-rafah-air-us-urges-rethink-ground-2024-03-19/

 

[snailspace]

A report on the famine in Gaza by an independent group:

GAZA STRIP: Famine is imminent as 1.1 million people, half of Gaza, experience catastrophic food insecurity​

Fake news, fake site

 

[ll74]

Fake news, fake site

Fuck off. You wouldn't care either way. You would prefer Palestinians starve to death.

 

[ExxWhyZee]

https://www.jewishpress.com/news/ey...s-rule-believe-hamas-will-win-war/2024/03/21/

 

[ll74]

https://www.jewishpress.com/news/ey...s-rule-believe-hamas-will-win-war/2024/03/21/

Shitty article and shitty tweet thread by Ari Ingel, neither of whom provide the actual poll source link.

https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/969

 

[snailspace]

The details are in there. But since it isn't to your liking. You dismiss it

 

[ll74]

The details are in there. But since it isn't to your liking. You dismiss it

The details are NOT at all in there, as I explained. I provided the details. The two parts of the Jewish press piece are lazy and untrustworthy because of it.

I don't dispute the methodology or results of the actual poll (that I provided) As with all polls, I would probably dispute analysis of the poll by pundits of either faction.

People who don't want you to see the source are only interested in making you hear their agenda.

 

[Rightguide]

No, I'm quite sure I'm smarter than you.

I highly doubt that. You're a Democrat and as such you've hitched your wagon to far too many stupid ideas and destructive policies to claim any level of superior intelligence. There's a reason why your party identifies itself with a jackass.

 

[ll74]

Well this will certainly ratchet up the pressure. I think more Arab support would be worthwhile, though they have been, so far, unwilling.

US calls for immediate ceasefire in Gaza with draft UN resolution​

“Well, in fact, we actually have a resolution that we put forward right now that’s before the UN security council that does call for an immediate ceasefire tied to the release of hostages, and we hope very much that countries will support that,” Blinken said in Saudi Arabia as he toured the region for the sixth time in as many months.

“I think that would send a strong message, a strong signal,” he told the Saudi Arabian channel Al Hadath on Wednesday.

 

[snailspace]

The US et al, want Hamas-Led victory