Climate continues to change.

[Chancellor_Palpatine]

Arctic temperatures soar 45 degrees above normal, flooded by extremely mild air on all sides

While the Eastern United States simmered in some of its warmest February weather ever recorded Tuesday and Wednesday, the Arctic is also stewing in temperatures more than 45 degrees above normal. This latest huge temperature spike in the Arctic is another striking indicator of its rapidly transforming climate.

 

[OldJourno]

For a while there we were having the mildest winter I could recall in the 30 years I've live in the Southwest. This February has me thinking this might be the coldest.

 

[thør]

https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/28378560_10213912819201811_2918571092531481675_n.jpg?oh=fe1e50a8917a635def10642a239ff940&oe=5B00E1C4

 

[Que]

For a while there we were having the mildest winter I could recall in the 30 years I've live in the Southwest. This February has me thinking this might be the coldest.

The mild winter and Chansen_PalpateTestes/RobDownSouth's anecdote above is "climate change."

The cold snap is mere anecdata involving weather.

 

[gunthernehmen]

I anecdotally could use some warm weather.

 

[trysail]

http://www.climate4you.com/images/NHemisphereSnowCoverSince1972.gif


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[thør]

Climate Models Are Uncertain

 

[Que]

Climate Models Are Uncertain

That is a very good idea. Meta-modeling sort of. Figuring out the commonalities between different models uncertainties should help identify which component is causing which inaccuracy.

A good read.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Buy it, read it, love it:

Political hack Mark Steyn adds sooooooo much to teh debate about climate science. </sarcasm>

 

[Chancellor_Palpatine]

Climate Models Are Uncertain

There's some expectation that zettaflop-scale computing is a precondition to accurate (>99%) weather modeling over a two week period. I'd be curious to see any metaresearch on the accuracy of climate models compared to computing power.

 

[Que]

There's some expectation that zettaflop-scale computing is a precondition to accurate (>99%) weather modeling over a two week period. I'd be curious to see any metaresearch on the accuracy of climate models compared to computing power.

It's surprising that you would be curious about that since somewhere on the way to your computer science degree you should have learned that garbage in equals garbage out. Processing more garbage faster does not improve results.

What's being discussed here is how to determine where the problems with assumptions and input lie and how to improve it.

 

[Chancellor_Palpatine]

The dumbass above me doesn't know that more computing power enables finer model resolution, more robust dynamical rules, etc.

 

[Que]

The sock-puppet above me is back peddling from his 'Tag-approved fake iggy bunker. He also forgot that he's trying to pretend to be an HVAC contractor in Canada. Maybe you should stick to just explaining Boyle's Law.

 

[gunthernehmen]

From the "don't keep all our eggs in one basket" school of thought...

This idea that mankind is heating up the planet is actually quite good news.

The surface of Mars varies between -100F and 70F at the equator. That's a little cool (at least the low range) for my taste.

If we can boost the temps there, then Mars is a viable alternative to living on Earth.

The atmosphere is mostly carbon dioxide. Plant some cool loving greenery to boost the oxygen, get those temps up and we've got another Earth in a few years. And we can drop some ice asteroids to add some water.

I love it when a plan comes together.

 

[Chancellor_Palpatine]

A lot more has to happen on Mars for it to become suitable for (exposed) human life. I'm not aware of any reason why it's not possible in principle. But we're looking at a centuries long investment, along with continued maintenance of the new Martian ecosystem and atmosphere. Still very much worth it, I'd say. Imagine the economic output of an entirely different planet, once developed.

 

[gunthernehmen]

Even though my comments were meant more in jest than serious, yes, Mars is the closest approximation of Earth conditions that we could possibly reach.

Terraforming it is far beyond our technology but the conditions are "better" than the moon or the ISS see.

Of course, if we COULD, the enviro groups would organize to Save The Martian Whales.

 

[trysail]

Shit, are the enviro-nutter, anti-fracking wacko, fossil-fuel hating loonies going to succeed in actually killing a bunch of people in the U.K. ?

Stay tuned.​

Not to alarm anyone *too* much but... National Grid has issued a “gas deficit warning” - meaning on current forecasts Britain won’t have enough gas supplies to meet demand today.

-Emily Gosden
Times (of London) Energy reporter
https://twitter.com/emilygosden/status/969115980164190209​

​

​

 

[Que]

Any progress on getting better modeling results from garbage input using finer model resolution and more robust dynamical rules, yet?

No?

I'll check back later.

 

[trysail]

Dumbass motherfuckers damn near killed a slew of people in Europe this winter. Where's all that solar and wind power?




​

Russia To The Rescue As Europe Draws More Gas in Siberian Chill


https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i7aiBzDdatFg/v1/800x-1.png


By Elena Mazneva, Anna Shiryaevskaya, and Mathew Carr
March 2, 2018

* More pipeline shipments and a rare LNG cargo due to arrive
* Spot gas prices in Europe tripled to a record as demand surged

(Bloomberg)...Tanker-tracking data from Kpler SAS indicate the Maran Gas Ulysses will deliver LNG to the Dragon terminal in Wales on March 6. The cargo from the Yamal LNG plant in Siberia will be transferred from the project’s ice-class tanker onto the cheaper conventional one at France’s Montoir terminal.

“We see the coldest end of the winter in years, and Russia is the first supplier with enough spare capacity to meet an extreme surge in demand,” said Giacomo Masato, a meteorologist at Marex Spectron...

...The supply crunch sent prices spiraling. In Britain, which is the second-biggest gas consumer in Europe after Germany, prompt delivery prices reached a record.

Shipments surged from two pipelines linking mainland Europe and the U.K. Increased supplies prompted the grid to declare the shortage had eased, and it withdrew its “deficit warning” on Friday morning.

While temperatures are expected to turn milder in much of western Europe next week, northern parts of the continent are forecast to remain colder than normal. Britain is facing snow, travel disruptions and high winds as Storm Emma followed a blast of Arctic air from Siberia...


lots more...


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[trysail]

https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/gfs_nh-sat1_t2_1-day-4.png


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[trysail]

https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2018_02_27_04_37_08.png


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[Chancellor_Palpatine]

https://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/TemperatureAnomaly02212018.png

 

[trysail]

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_February_2018_v6-550x317.jpg


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[Sean]

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_February_2018_v6-550x317.jpg


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You CAN see that that is trending upward, right?

 

[BoyNextDoor]

https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2018_02_27_04_37_08.png


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The fact is that around 1970 there were 6 times as many scientists predicting a warming rather than a cooling planet. Today, with 30+years more data to analyse, we've reached a clear scientific consensus: 97% of working climate scientists agree with the view that human beings are causing global warming.