Climate continues to change.

[trysail]

global warming --> energized hydrosphere --> extreme weather --> more snow and floods etc

"...climate change has not produced more frequent nor more costly hurricanes nor other weather-related events covered by insurance..."

-Warren E. Buffett
Chairman
Berkshire Hathaway Corporation
Letter To Shareholders
2015 Annual Report
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2015ltr.pdf
February 27, 2016
p. 26

​

​

 

[Richard_P_Feynman]

In case anyone wants the plain language summary, here it is:

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has been extremely active both in terms of the strength of the tropical cyclones that have developed and the amount of storm activity that has occurred near the United States. This is even more notable as it comes at the end of an extended period of below normal U.S. hurricane activity, as no major (category 3 or higher) hurricanes made landfall from 2006 through 2016. Our study examines how rare the recent “landfall drought” actually was using a record of the estimated total energy of storms over the U.S., rather than prior methods of counting hurricanes making U.S. landfall. Using this technique, we found that 2006–2015 was in the least active 10% of 10 year periods in terms of U.S. tropical cyclone energy but that several less active periods had occurred in the last 50 years. The 2006–2016 drought years did record the lowest percentage of storm activity occurring over the U.S. relative to what was observed over the entire Atlantic. This finding is further evidence for a trade-off between atmospheric conditions favoring hurricane development and those that are most favorable for powerful storms to move towards the U.S. coastline.

In other words, the authors of the study aren't looking at total energetics of the Atlantic basin. They're looking specifically at the energetics of U.S. landfalling systems.

 

[trysail]

https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/slide1.png


​

 

[stickygirl]

"...climate change has not produced more frequent nor more costly hurricanes nor other weather-related events covered by insurance..."-Warren E. Buffett
Chairman
Berkshire Hathaway Corporation
Letter To Shareholders
2015 Annual Report
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2015ltr.pdf
February 27, 2016
p. 26
Dramatic coloring and indents removed for the ease of reading

But... wouldn't a chairman of an insurance company want to retain his shareholders? Is this supposed to be unbiased info?
I know Lloyds are pretty pissed off with USA insurance companies because of all the big payouts
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/28/lloyds-of-london-harvey-irma-claims-maria
"The cost of property insurance cover in the US is likely to rise “materially” as a result, but Asian prices should be unaffected.

“It is clear that 2017 is a major catastrophe year,” said Simon Kilgour, an insurance partner at the law firm CMS. "

 

[stickygirl]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/mar/28/lloyds-london-catastrophe-loss

"The 324-year-old insurance market, which operates out of Richard Rogers's famous "inside-out building" in the City, paid out £4.6bn in disaster claims* after ... storms in the US and floods in Thailand and Australia. Total catastrophe claims for the global industry reached $107bn (£67bn) last year, according to insurer Aon Benfield.

Lloyd's of London made a £516m loss last year after paying out the largest catastrophe claims on record."

*this also included earthquakes

 

[stickygirl]

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/05/25/top-insurer-urges-us-to-stop-subsidising-climate-risk-homes/

"Lloyd’s, one of the world’s biggest insurance companies, says the US government must stop providing insurance subsidies to homeowners building on flood plains and in coastal areas exposed to mounting risks related to climate change."

 

[stickygirl]

https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2212094715300347-gr4_lrg.jpg

"Fig. 4 shows the global annual direct economic and insured losses of all weather related catastrophe events since 1980. All values have been adjusted for the country specific inflation based on the consumer price index. The figures show highly significant (p<0.001) increases of economic and insured losses in the last 35 years with the peak in 2005 driven by the extremely active hurricane season, especially by the losses caused by hurricane Katrina (original overall loss US$ 125bn, insured loss US$ 62bn)."

 

[thør]

No one really looks at oversize images unless there are tits involved.

 

[stickygirl]

No one really looks at oversize images unless there are tits involved.

So smaller
https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2212094715300347-gr4.jpg
But the writing is kinda small

Here's some tits
https://78.media.tumblr.com/b83953d1aef4a8833d2a7783ca6edaa2/tumblr_oelfdgeSAX1qzts4bo1_540.jpg

Happy to oblige
mostly

 

[thør]

So smaller
https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2212094715300347-gr4.jpg
But the writing is kinda small

Here's some tits
https://78.media.tumblr.com/b83953d1aef4a8833d2a7783ca6edaa2/tumblr_oelfdgeSAX1qzts4bo1_540.jpg

Happy to oblige
mostly

It's all easy to see, now.

 

[domroger]

Strange that nobody has explained why there were no landfall hurricanes during Obama's presidency .
Perhaps God is giving us a clue .

 

[IrezumiKiss]

No one really looks at oversize images unless there are tits involved.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/weKtjP_SaoI/maxresdefault.jpg

hehehehehehe

 

[thør]

hehehehehehe

Some fine titties, zumi.

 

[thør]

If ya need some serious reading.

 

[Que]

Strange that nobody has explained why there were no landfall hurricanes during Obama's presidency .
Perhaps Allah is giving us a clue .

-FYP.

 

[Hypoxia]

Strange that nobody has explained why there were no landfall hurricanes during Obama's presidency.

Perhaps Adad or Ara Tiotio or Audros or Baʿal or Coatrisquie or Guabancex or Guatauva or Chaac or Cocijo or Ehecatl or Guatauva or Hadad or Horus or Huracán or Indra or {JHWH} or Jupiter or Juracán or K'awiil or Perkūnas or Dievas or Perun or Oya or Q'uq'umatz or Rán or Set or Tāwhirimātea or Teshubor or Tezcatlipoca or Theispas or Teisheba or Thor or Tlaloc or Tohil or Tupã or Ukko or Yopaat or Zeus or Yunzhongzi or Yu Shi or Wen Zhong or Lei Gong or Dian Mu or Feng Bo or Feng Po Po or Han Zixianor or the Dragon Kings may be giving us a clue.

Fixed for ya. Personally, I'd go with Huracán. Many of the rest are pissants.

 

[domroger]

Stop taking the piss .
It made me smile .

 

[trysail]

JC's (un)motivated reasoning
by Judith Curry, Ph.D.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/12/28/jcs-unmotivated-reasoning/

...At issue is my politics, my ideology, my advocacy, my activism, my civility.

So here goes.

My politics

Politically, I’m an independent. In Presidential elections since 1972, I have voted for Democrats, Republicans and occasionally third party candidates. Unfortunately, I typically find myself voting against the most ‘objectionable’ candidate. One exception was Obama #1; I was a strong supporter and am on public record as having made campaign contributions (I was much less enthusiastic about Obama #2)...​

***​

I have for many years been a student of the corrosive effects of ideology on science. This was prompted originally by works of Jacob Bronowski, Primo Levi, Charles Mackay, and an abiding interest in the history of I G Farben. As a guide, primarily for myself, I developed a set of characteristics of ideologues, to better recognize and interpret their behavior. (These are based in part on some ideas of John Ralston Saul in his “Unconscious Civilization”).

There are five attributes of ideologues:
1. Absence of doubt
2. Intolerance of debate
3. Appeal to authority
4. A desire to convince others of the ideological “truth”
5. A willingness to punish those that don’t concur

-Nick Darby
​

​

In the climate communication world, it has become very trendy to wear your political ideology on your sleeve. How many ‘climate science communicators’ can you name that have at least 4 of the above attributes of ideologues with regards to climate change?...​

(much) more...
https://judithcurry.com/2017/12/28/jcs-unmotivated-reasoning/





​

 

[phrodeau]

You sure make a great point with that "desire to convince others" bit. Remind me, which wheel has been the squeakiest lately?

 

[thør]

"In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!"

http://images.uncyclomedia.co/uncyclopedia/en/thumb/c/c4/Triple-facepalm.jpg/536px-Triple-facepalm.jpg

 

[phrodeau]

The cold snap is very local.

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QLIGZp1pucOODIAreRgmguxDsRM=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9941073/gfs_world_ced_t2anom_1_day.png

 

[thør]

Just get some ice on the damn Chukchi!

 

[trysail]

Editorial Narratives in Science Journalism
by Kip Hansen

...When a story — a bit of news, a new journal paper — doesn’t fit the narrative required or desired by the Editors — then there is a problem. If the news is truly Big News and Important — then the journalist has to do his/her best to report it and somehow slip in enough of his/her editor’s narrative to get it accepted and published. We see this a lot in climate stories where the article goes along well enough, reporting some new findings, and then, out of nowhere, comes a line like “Of course, this new study does nothing to cast any doubt about the overwhelming evidence for human-induced climate change which is currently threatening the very existence of our planet.”

We saw this in the recently issued EPA finding on glyphosate (Monsanto’s Round-Up) which declared it not to be a human carcinogen. The news was so far from most MSM’s Editorial Narratives on Monsanto, Round-Up and glyphosate that most MSM journalist simply passed and reported nothing at all! They just couldn’t modify the reality to fit their Editor’s Narrative — some things can’t be spun that far.

My recent ongoing series on Modern Scientific Controversies exposed a good deal of this behavior in the US press — different news outlets ‘taking sides’ in the controversies — evidence of Editorial Narratives driving the reports.

I do not maintain that all newspapers, news agencies, magazines, journals — all MSM outlets — have expressed, written, Editorial Narratives on the topics of our time. Michael Cieply reported that the New York Times does and that the LA Times doesn’t. However, I know from my own work experience that superiors can have strong opinions and expect their workers to reflect those opinions in their work. I have not been a newspaper journalist, but I have been a radio news journalist — and Editors and News Directors have the responsibility to help plan coverage and to read and edit stories before publication or going on-air — and in this process, impose their viewpoint on what the story is and how it is to be told.

We see in the example of the NY Times’ Planet Fat series that the “story” was determined before the journalists were even sent out to find a story — they were sent out to specifically find a story matching the Editorial Narrative. Facts contrary or counter to the narrative are played down or explained away in the series. The series is a fascinating example of how Editorial Narratives play out in the real world, when the ink hits the paper [digital ink hits the display screen?]. If you have the time and inclination, or are interested in the Obesity Epidemic controversy, read the entire series, with the Editorial Narrative as laid by Celia Dugger in the premier article (quoted early in this essay) firmly in mind...

(quoting exactly five paragraphs, the rest is on-line)​

​

I already knew it was awful; now I discover that it's even worse than I thought.

A horrifying revelation from an extremely bright man, an excellent writer with a keen analytical mind— AND— a former journalist.





​

 

[Richard_P_Feynman]

More Watts shit.

 

[Luk]

tryfail confuses this thread with the ISO.