America's inevitable war with Iran

[bellisarius]

A shooting war n the Strait of Hormuz would certainly solve the domestic oil glut problem in the USA until November.

What's the price on the spot market now? Free and producer pays the shipping?

 

[BoyNextDoor]

A shooting war n the Strait of Hormuz would certainly solve the domestic oil glut problem in the USA until November.

Wouldn't describe it as a "USA" problem. More of an oil refinery problem. What are there, maybe 11 or 12 in the US?

Cheap gas, less pollution, clear skies - works for me.

As a real American I don't give a shit about the Strait of Hormuz.

 

[colddiesel]

The USA could easily win any fighting war in the Middle East. They would be just as certain to lose the political non-resolution of civil society which followed. The USA 'won' when they ousted the democratically elected Iranian government way back in 1953. They were taking control of the Iranian oil industry then, just as they are currently controlling the Iraqi industry.

If the USA got out of Iraq and Afghanistan and left the Gulf and Syria, the various factions within each country would be fighting each other within 6 months. The only involvement needs to be to supply sufficient quantities of smaller arms to ensure that no side ever wins. There is no need for the USA to be there.

 

[bellisarius]

The USA could easily win any fighting war in the Middle East. They would be just as certain to lose the political non-resolution of civil society which followed. The USA 'won' when they ousted the democratically elected Iranian government way back in 1953. They were taking control of the Iranian oil industry then, just as they are currently controlling the Iraqi industry.

If the USA got out of Iraq and Afghanistan and left the Gulf and Syria, the various factions within each country would be fighting each other within 6 months. The only involvement needs to be to supply sufficient quantities of smaller arms to ensure that no side ever wins. There is no need for the USA to be there.

It had nothing to do with oil and everything to do with the USSR.

 

[LupusDei]

With no love to the current Iranian regime, I still firmly believe a shooting war would be a monumental mistake. Unfortunately, USA are seemingly unable anymore to play the nuanced long game. The only way to beat an idea is from within. You can't "free" Iranians any more you can free North Koreans. But if North Korea is a success as a bizarre social experiment and there's really little hope it will end on itself anytime soon, Iran has all signs the change is still possible. Warmongering only strengthens the regime. That's why they are doing it, it may seem suicidal from outside, but internally it is defensive reaction, attempt to trigger and appeal to the siege mentality and rally followers that way. Soft power isn't flashy, fragile and may seem inefficient until the necessarily critical points are reached, but... Iran will be defeated by kids chatting over internet not warships.

 

[colddiesel]

It had nothing to do with oil and everything to do with the USSR.

The democratically elected government of Iran decided to nationalize their own oil industry in 1953, more specifically they decided to Nationalize the Anglo Iranian Oil company. Anglo American was 51% owned by the British Government so the objection was Iranian control.

The CIA together with the Brits organized a coup and placed the Shah on the throne. He proceeded to terrorize his own people and allow Westerners to manage Iran's oil and for it to be sold to the west at discounted prices. Suggesting it was done because the USA was frightened of the Soviets is a feeble excuse which was dreamed up afterwards.

It doesn't change the fact that the oil was an Iranian asset and the US and UK stole it and destroyed democracy in Iran.

 

[Lancecastor19]

The USA has always been wrong about Iran.

 

[bellisarius]

The democratically elected government of Iran decided to nationalize their own oil industry in 1953, more specifically they decided to Nationalize the Anglo Iranian Oil company. Anglo American was 51% owned by the British Government so the objection was Iranian control.

The CIA together with the Brits organized a coup and placed the Shah on the throne. He proceeded to terrorize his own people and allow Westerners to manage Iran's oil and for it to be sold to the west at discounted prices. Suggesting it was done because the USA was frightened of the Soviets is a feeble excuse which was dreamed up afterwards.

It doesn't change the fact that the oil was an Iranian asset and the US and UK stole it and destroyed democracy in Iran.

I believe that is the operative term and would point to the underlying alignment of that particular regime.

 

[Lancecastor19]

I believe that is the operative term and would point to the underlying alignment of that particular regime.

Imagine, people in a country voting and determining the use of their own resources!

They must be crushed.

 

[bellisarius]

Imagine, people in a country voting and determining the use of their own resources!

They must be crushed.

Like I said, "the good ole days." Probably should have treated them like the USSR did Poland, or Hungary, or _______________(fill in the blank).

One way of looking at it is they got off easy and the people prospered. Yes, it was also an oppressive regime if you didn't toe the line. Nothing's changed it seems.

 

[Lancecastor19]

Cradle of civilization.

I like the way they handle themselves.

 

[toeskr]

Wouldn't describe it as a "USA" problem. More of an oil refinery problem. What are there, maybe 11 or 12 in the US?

Cheap gas, less pollution, clear skies - works for me.

As a real American I don't give a shit about the Strait of Hormuz.

^^^^ loves cheap gas. Fuck the planet.

Sucks AL Gores nuts for a side job.

Boer next door is a dipshit.

 

[bellisarius]

Cradle of civilization.

I like the way they handle themselves.

I'm surprised they still aren't railing about Alexander.

 

[Lancecastor19]

I'm surprised they still aren't railing about Alexander.

You are dismissing History. That’s a first.

 

[bellisarius]

You are dismissing History. That’s a first.

It seems they are, not me. Or maybe they're just prone to "selective" history.

 

[icanhelp1]

With no love to the current Iranian regime, I still firmly believe a shooting war would be a monumental mistake. Unfortunately, USA are seemingly unable anymore to play the nuanced long game. The only way to beat an idea is from within. You can't "free" Iranians any more you can free North Koreans. But if North Korea is a success as a bizarre social experiment and there's really little hope it will end on itself anytime soon, Iran has all signs the change is still possible. Warmongering only strengthens the regime. That's why they are doing it, it may seem suicidal from outside, but internally it is defensive reaction, attempt to trigger and appeal to the siege mentality and rally followers that way. Soft power isn't flashy, fragile and may seem inefficient until the necessarily critical points are reached, but... Iran will be defeated by kids chatting over internet not warships.

I agree, the most probable path for regime change will be from within and Trump has been working that process. Outwardly reminding provocateurs they can exceed their limits and that our rules of engagement are alive and well, Just a gentle nudge.

 

[bellisarius]

Folks might find it interesting researching the Iranian antics that prompted Trumps order.

Iran WANTS a war, they NEED a war. The natives are getting restless and the regime is in desperate need of a distraction and what better distraction than the evil Satan?

 

[Lancecastor19]

Iran WANTS a war, they NEED a war. The natives are getting restless and the regime is in desperate need of a distraction and what better distraction than the evil Satan?

Iran's not in the war starting business, never have been.

If you want to produce a list of all the times the Iranian armed forces have entered other countries, I'd like to see it.

 

[icanhelp1]

Folks might find it interesting researching the Iranian antics that prompted Trumps order.

Iran WANTS a war, they NEED a war. The natives are getting restless and the regime is in desperate need of a distraction and what better distraction than the evil Satan?

No doubt that's the case. Hope Trump keeps on the present path, avoid a shooting war thereby giving the Mullahs a rallying cry. The next missile exchange will not bode well for the Iranian military but more damage can be done by being patient. I'm sure the virus as well as sanctions are having a significant effect on the Iranian people.
MHO

 

[icanhelp1]

Iran's not in the war starting business, never have been.

If you want to produce a list of all the times the Iranian armed forces have entered other countries, I'd like to see it.

Iraq, Syria, Yemen

 

[bellisarius]

Iran's not in the war starting business, never have been.

If you want to produce a list of all the times the Iranian armed forces have entered other countries, I'd like to see it.

Really? War by proxy has been one of their specialties for decades now.

 

[bellisarius]

Iran's not in the war starting business, never have been.

If you want to produce a list of all the times the Iranian armed forces have entered other countries, I'd like to see it.

No doubt that's the case. Hope Trump keeps on the present path, avoid a shooting war thereby giving the Mullahs a rallying cry. The next missile exchange will not bode well for the Iranian military but more damage can be done by being patient. I'm sure the virus as well as sanctions are having a significant effect on the Iranian people.
MHO

Trump has merely given the military a "weapons free" directive should Iran's provocations become dangerous as they did with the latest incident.

 

[hogjack]

Wasn't America was going to war with North Korea?

Another great prediction.

 

[bunny4med]

Iranian cruiser and battleship.

 

[icanhelp1]

Trump has merely given the military a "weapons free" directive should Iran's provocations become dangerous as they did with the latest incident.

My earlier comment:

Outwardly reminding provocateurs they can exceed their limits and that our rules of engagement are alive and well, Just a gentle nudge.