ABC News Bombshell Poll Spells Big Trouble for Biden

[IrezumiKiss]

We'll see how NYC actually fairs in a little while. The reality is that long term they'll be just fine.

NYC will remain NYC. Aside from some racist Repub pricks who live in the somewhat useless landfill borough of Staten Island, nobody actually gives a fuck because the city is made of immigrants.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

The Realclear Politics average has Trump up by 1.6%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

 

[RobDownSouth]

The Realclear Politics average has Trump up by 1.6%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

Two things here:
1. Polls with LV (likely voters) disproportionately and arbitrairily exclude Gen Z voters, who are a large Dem voting bloc
2. The aggregate average weights polls with margins of error of 2..5 and below (the "gold standard") as being equal to the lazy polls with margins of error 3.0 and above.

Basically, the race is a dead heat right now, Republicans will have to double down on "block the vote" efforts to keep #ThosePeople from the polls.

 

[HisArpy]

Trump needs +30 to lose by 3% at 2am.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Two things here:
1. Polls with LV (likely voters) disproportionately and arbitrairily exclude Gen Z voters, who are a large Dem voting bloc
2. The aggregate average weights polls with margins of error of 2..5 and below (the "gold standard") as being equal to the lazy polls with margins of error 3.0 and above.

Basically, the race is a dead heat right now, Republicans will have to double down on "block the vote" efforts to keep #ThosePeople from the polls.

Agree. It’s a dead heat and has been for some time. ABC/WaPo could be an outlier although none of the eight polls released since 9/14 show Biden leading. We’ll have to wait for more polls in the days ahead to see if a trend is forming. The NBC poll released yesterday shows Biden and Trump in a tie, but shows Nikki Haley over Biden by 5 points.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Trump needs +30 to lose by 3% at 2am.

The count was accurate. Trump lost fair and square by over 7 million votes in the popular vote.
No amount of spinnin' and snark from you can change that fact.

 

[phrodeau]

If Biden loses, he builds a library.
If Trump loses, he goes to prison.

 

[VinnyVeritas]

Biden is no worse than any other President. Having lost a step with dementia he is still smarter than trump who is a legend in his own mind. Just ask him.

I don't see him being better than any other President either.

He's the political equivalent of watery oatmeal
who thinks about raisins as "boys.."

 

[VinnyVeritas]

Trump needs +30 to lose by 3% at 2am.

*chuckle*

 

[Chobham]

It's WAY too early for any of the polls to have any real meaning, a year is three lifetimes in politics. About the only way I see this poll resonating is with the "Dump Biden" coalition of the democrat party.

 

[VinnyVeritas]

It's WAY too early for any of the polls to have any real meaning, a year is three lifetimes in politics. About the only way I see this poll resonating is with the "Dump Biden" coalition of the democrat party.

Interesting thought. I know it's a murder of crows, but what is it with sharks? A circling?

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

The issues that have Biden’s polling numbers in the toilet are his age and fitness for office, how people feel about how their doing financially, and the immigration crisis. He won’t be any younger or sharper when voting starts in a year but maybe people will feel better about the economy and the border.

 

[VinnyVeritas]

Kitchen Table Issues

People do notice that they've lost spending power and do vote in their own self-interest.

 

[Rotadom]

 

[Rotadom]

Kitchen Table Issues

People do notice that they've lost spending power and do vote in their own self-interest.

What is your proof that is happening? You don't leave your shack and you're terrible with money.

 

[VinnyVeritas]

The proof, as is the reference, is a historical truism.

Is stupid just a part you play on Lit?

 

[Chobham]

The issues that have Biden’s polling numbers in the toilet are his age and fitness for office, how people feel about how their doing financially, and the immigration crisis. He won’t be any younger or sharper when voting starts in a year but maybe people will feel better about the economy and the border.

Anyone want to take bets on the economy or the border?

 

[VinnyVeritas]

Now, here's a poll that can be believed, actual box office numbers:

https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2023/09/25/nolte-weekend-box-office-crashes-2023-low/

If you read it with an eye towards politics, then it is a real warning to both parties and their proclivity towards "remakes."

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Anyone want to take bets on the economy or the border?

Definitely not me. Those 7% mortgage rates and 20%+ credit card rates aren’t going away soon and oil prices are heading north. On the border crisis, more and more governors and mayors are demanding action from the WH. Doubt they’re gonna pipe down either.

 

[Sean Renaud]

But do they have the tools to deal with the situation.

I don't see him being better than any other President either.

He's the political equivalent of watery oatmeal
who thinks about raisins as "boys.."

He's better than a lot of them.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Smart take by columnist Byron York on the ABC/Washington Post poll that has Trump up by 10 points as well as the RCP average of recent polls that have Trump up by 1.6 points.

York raises this question:

“But the bigger question is: How did Trump get that lead? And if he is not really leading Biden by 10 points and is instead ahead by only a point or two — how did he get that lead? How is Trump, nearly three years out of office and facing four indictments, ahead of the incumbent president?”

He answers his own question this way:

“Here's one answer, after listening to Trump and talking to people who came to see him on a hot, sweaty late September day in the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Trump's message is compelling because it is, in essence, the spoken-word version of the feelings about the state of the country expressed in...the Washington Post poll. Other polls, too.”

Why Trump's message works​

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/why-trumps-message-works

 

[Sean Renaud]

Smart take by columnist Byron York on the ABC/Washington Post poll that has Trump up by 10 points as well as the RCP average of recent polls that have Trump up by 1.6 points.

York raises this question:

“But the bigger question is: How did Trump get that lead? And if he is not really leading Biden by 10 points and is instead ahead by only a point or two — how did he get that lead? How is Trump, nearly three years out of office and facing four indictments, ahead of the incumbent president?”

He answers his own question this way:

“Here's one answer, after listening to Trump and talking to people who came to see him on a hot, sweaty late September day in the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Trump's message is compelling because it is, in essence, the spoken-word version of the feelings about the state of the country expressed in...the Washington Post poll. Other polls, too.”

Why Trump's message works​

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/why-trumps-message-works

Trump is leading Biden by 10 points in a single poll that would require the world to have completely changed over the last three years and I don't buy it.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Trump is leading Biden by 10 points in a single poll that would require the world to have completely changed over the last three years and I don't buy it.

Right. He’s only leading by 1.6 points in the RCP average. None of the polls taken since 9/14 have Biden ahead. Whether Trump’s lead is 10 points or 1.6 points, a candidate with 4 indictments is ahead of an incumbent president. Trump’s message is working.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Right. He’s only leading by 1.6 points in the RCP average. None of the polls taken since 9/14 have Biden ahead. Whether Trump’s lead is 10 points or 1.6 points, a candidate with 4 indictments is ahead of an incumbent president. Trump’s message is working.

1.6 is margin of error and that doesn't surprise me. It seems like the best thing that every happens to a president's popularity is not being in office. That's a problem all around on the American People. As for the multiple indictments you still have people who think he had nothing to do with J6. Its not the message its a combination of American Ignorance and Conservative flat out evil.

 

[Veroe]

It's still too early for freaking out about this poll or that poll.