ChinaBandit
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2009
- Posts
- 4,281
From a historic perspective, recent presidential second terms are FAR less successful than the first.
Can it be argued that George W Bush (Economy/Iraq), Clinton (Impeachment proceedings) , Reagan (Iran-Contra), Nixon* (Watergate/resignation), LBJ (Vietnam)**, Eisenhower (Health) all faired more poorly? Of course not. The second terms were next to awful when compared to the first.
In each case, but 1988, the party in control of the White House lost. Dukakis was just too liberal for the country to accept in 1988.
Anyhow, there is more than a reasonable chance Obama's second term will be seen as problematic as measured against the first. Of course, he could be great but it could also be an utter failure. Which is more likely according to recent history?
Now, you consider that the GOP will certainly put either Cruz, Martinez or Rubio on the ticket and the Latino vote in 2016 is more favorable.
Now, you consider the Democrats can't find another African-American (Sorry, Booker won't cut it) and the GOP gains a bit there. A point or two, at least.
Is it not likely the GOP wins the White House in 2016?
* - I realize Ford finished Nixon's term AND lost
** - I realize LBJ was only elected once but the Democrats held the presidency for two terms
Can it be argued that George W Bush (Economy/Iraq), Clinton (Impeachment proceedings) , Reagan (Iran-Contra), Nixon* (Watergate/resignation), LBJ (Vietnam)**, Eisenhower (Health) all faired more poorly? Of course not. The second terms were next to awful when compared to the first.
In each case, but 1988, the party in control of the White House lost. Dukakis was just too liberal for the country to accept in 1988.
Anyhow, there is more than a reasonable chance Obama's second term will be seen as problematic as measured against the first. Of course, he could be great but it could also be an utter failure. Which is more likely according to recent history?
Now, you consider that the GOP will certainly put either Cruz, Martinez or Rubio on the ticket and the Latino vote in 2016 is more favorable.
Now, you consider the Democrats can't find another African-American (Sorry, Booker won't cut it) and the GOP gains a bit there. A point or two, at least.
Is it not likely the GOP wins the White House in 2016?
* - I realize Ford finished Nixon's term AND lost
** - I realize LBJ was only elected once but the Democrats held the presidency for two terms
